Thread by @trygveolson

Faith or Fear Threat – WWPD (What Will Putin Do)
This morning someone asked me, "Is Putin going to back down?" You have likely seen these headlines too. The query inspired me as a teachable moment from my work in Ukraine & worldwide with those fighting autocrats & for democracy.

I told them; "I have no clue what choice Putin will make. But, I know he will do whatever serves his objective of maintaining or gaining power." So, herein lies the lessons. First, all Illiberal forces & autocrats have a singular purpose – to Gain & Maintain power.

They all use the same strategy -- Making themselves appear inevitable & invincible through fear (e.g, 130k troops on Ukraine's borders imposes fear – in Ukraine, Europe & Globally. War is scary. What will happen? Could we face confrontation & Armageddon? All are about fear.

Now let's look at what you see through the tactics illiberal & autocrats use. There are six. Illiberal Autocratic Tactic #1 is Big Ideas, Big Lies. There are many if you think about what we have seen recently relating to Russia & Ukraine.

I will use the idea US hysteria is driving a potential conflict. If you think about it rationally the US & its allies don't have 60% of their armed forces on anyone's borders – not Russia, China, or anyone else. The notion they are surrounding Russia through NATO is folly too.

The purpose of these Big Lies is all about the object & strategy. Domestically for Putin, it provides a rationale for attacking Ukraine if that serves the objective. Internationally it is a point his assets can use, & his useful idiots can amplify.

Autocratic Tactic #2 – Marginalization. Part of his efforts with this tactic relates to Ukraine & Ukrainians – Embassies are closing. You are at my mercy. If you don't do what I want – stay under my thumb -- you will stand alone & be crushed (or can be at any time of I choose).

Internationally, the idea Ukraine or any other nation can aspire to be part of NATO – not just the protection aspect but the values, is now in question. Even if you are Sweden or the Finns you are on notice, according to Putin. Current members in NATO east too.

BTW – Putin's assets & useful idiots in the US will pivot if Putin holds off on invading to a message of "This was hysteria by Biden, democrats, & nations in NATO in the east who hate Russia." They will try & say, look, Putin is a good guy of peace – the others are warmongers.

Illiberal Autocratic Tactic #3 – Dependency. For Ukraine, what is the message of all the troops, artillery, & missiles? What does all the military equipment now in Belarus (which aren't likely leaving, making Belarus a defacto Russian enclave) say to Poles & Baltic States?

Internationally, if Putin invades, there is little we can do to save Ukrainians. We will, of course, impose massive sanctions on Russia & there will be a high cost. Yet remember Putin's objective. If he deems it helps maintain or gain power greater than the costs, he will do it.

Illiberal Autocratic Tactic #4 – Disinformation. There is part of me thinking this one is self-evident. That said, disinformation is often misunderstood. Autocrats use it (even the tomfoolery we are seeing out of the Kremlin right now) as a test of fealty. Who will repeat it?

In the US, I suspect Putin is learning a great deal. You have people who do it nightly on Fox News. I am sure that isn't much of a loyalty test as I think it is expected of them. That said, Putin is learning who are the useful idiots willing to repeat his narratives.

Tactic #5 – Divide & Conquer. If Putin invades, he will install a government loyal to him. On the other hand, if he pulls back, he will actively attempt to push Zelensky out. He will use the eastern areas conquered & all the economic harm done to Ukraine from the current crisis.

Internationally, he will use the pullback to try & divide NATO & the west. To the Germans, it will be, "See, I am a reliable partner, & we should continue with Nord Stream 2." In Poland & the Balts it will be, "I am a threat & you can't count on Germany or the EU."

Here in the US Putin assets & useful idiots will continue deploying. They will say, "Biden, not Putin is the irrational one who tried to lead us into a war over Ukraine." They will y push the idea Biden is so clueless he thought Russia & Putin were bad when China is the threat.

Tactic #6 – threats, repression & violence. Ukraine is seeing this tactic at the moment. Threats – 130K troops on the border. Repression – flights canceled, no embassies open (you are not a real country without embassies), violence – the areas already invaded & occupied.

Internationally, it is the same. You have threats – I will go into Ukraine, and this could escalate. There is also I have hypersonic & nuclear weapons and my trolls, cyber, Tuckers in Canada with mysterious funding from aboard, & all the rest. The threat: I can create chaos.

Ultimately, Putin, like all autocrats, plays a different game – his is zero-sum. For his ilk, compromise (the norm & foundation of our win-win democratic systems of governance) is strategic. Retreat when it serves your objective of power. Push when it aids your strategy of fear.

I can't tell you what Putin will do any more than I can tell you what Donald Trump & his enablers will do. I can only give you an educated guess based on what I have seen and know. The good news? With this understanding, you can make your guess, which will be as good as mine.