New Keynesian macroeconomics is built on a foundation that assumes imperfect competition (i.e., businesses that can set prices). This imperfect competition results in quantities that are inefficiently low. This foundation has three policy implications (one for each tweet):
1. Micro policies like competition policy have the potential to improve welfare by raising quantities (or lowering prices in specific markets).
Personally I'm concerned about the reduction in competition and overly lax anti-trust. And glad to see President Biden addressing it.
2. Recessions are even worse than we thought and should be vigorously combatted with macroeconomic tools.
The intuition is that if your baseline is below where it should be then going even further below that is a particularly large loss (technically a first order loss).
3. Fiscal and monetary policy still face a constraint outside of the context of a recession (or temporary shortfall).
Macro policy still faces an inflation constraint that is dictated, partly, by the competitive structure of the economy. So can't solve the chronic shortfall.
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Wowsers, nominal retail and food services sales up 3.8% in January even as prices were rising. Some charts that tell the story--presented mostly without commentary.
These are retail sales, mostly goods, people don't seem to be tiring of buying goods.
The largest category of durable goods: motor vehicles and parts.
The most fun category of retail sales (especially the bookstores part).
Great question. One view is that wage-price spirals were possible because unions had the power to negotiate contracts with cost-of-living adjustments. Under this view, the decline of unions and escalator contracts will mean a different dynamic.
Take an ice cream shop. They don't want to pay their workers more. Their workers don't have COLAs. But their workers are threatening to leave for jobs at Chipotle. Chipotle can afford to pay more because it raised prices. The ice cream shop has not choice but to pay more too.
And the ice cream shop will raise prices to be able to afford to pay more. Customers will still buy stuff there because prices are higher elsewhere too so the ice cream shop's relative prices haven't increased.
1. Gas prices not very high in historical context.
2. Federal gas tax last raised in 1993, has been cut in half by inflation since.
3. Gas tax lower than the climate/road damage/congestion costs imposed by gasoline.
4. A gas tax holiday would raise profits for oil companies.
Expanding on the last point, the "incidence" of any tax cut gets shared between the two sides of the market (whichever side is less responsive to price will get more of the tax cut). In the case of a gas tax holiday that would mean billions for oil companies.
It is depressing that the decades long link between highway financing and highway use was broken in the 1990s. If anything the gas tax should go up not down. I realize that is impossible to ask now. But at least hold on to what we have.
But even conditional on my inflation views, I'm even more uncertain about what exactly monetary policy should do. Nervous about overreacting but also nervous about being so far from a reasonable place now.
So just, well, nervous.
There are good reasons to think inflation will go down (shift to services, massive stimulus behind us, workers returning, global supply chains unsnarl, normalized endemic COVID). A number of these arguments are overstated, often in the same way, but collectively plausible.
There are also good reasons to think inflation will go up (tighter labor markets, higher inflation expectations, wage-price spiral, continued excess demand with accelerations Phillips curve, normalized endemic COVID). (Yes, normalized endemic COVID is on both lists.)
Over the next yr the labor force participation rate could rise by an astounding ~0.9 percentage point if all of the people who have left the labor force return.
The last time we've seen anything like this was 1976, 1977 & 1978.
Maybe not so comforting for inflation.
A short 🧵
The labor force participation fell sharply when COVID hit & is still far from recovered. Now 1pp below where it would have been if all the age-sex participation rates had stayed the same. This is due to a combo of ages and genders. (Discontinuity is the population controls.)
It's plausible that many of these people will come back over something like the next year if COVID becomes more manageably endemic or more ignored.
If these workers come back that will be great for incomes, employment, GDP, and much more.
If you think profit maximization (aka corporate greed) was responsible for the 7.5% inflation over the last twelve months, what would you say was responsible for the 6.3 million private sector jobs added over the last twelve months?
In some sense both of these are trivially the result of corporate greed in that most of what we see in our economy is an equilibrium that reflects profit maximizing decisions by firms.
The low inflation in the years up to the pandemic was also corporate greed (companies would have lost money if they charged more).