Jason Furman Profile picture
Feb 12 6 tweets 1 min read
If you think profit maximization (aka corporate greed) was responsible for the 7.5% inflation over the last twelve months, what would you say was responsible for the 6.3 million private sector jobs added over the last twelve months?
In some sense both of these are trivially the result of corporate greed in that most of what we see in our economy is an equilibrium that reflects profit maximizing decisions by firms.
The low inflation in the years up to the pandemic was also corporate greed (companies would have lost money if they charged more).
The high real wage increases for leisure and hospitality workers are also the result of corporate greed--restaurants would lose money if they set lower wages because they would not get employees.

Etc.
Corporate greed/profit maximization hasn't changed. What has changed, most importantly, is demand. So "corporate greed" should be part of your multiplier for fiscal policy and part of your analysis about how low interest rates translate into inflation.
I'm for more competition policy and love the President's EO on competition and am glad to see it being implemented. But it is not big enough or fast enough to change any of this. Moreover most prices in our economy are not set by businesses which violate competition laws.

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More from @jasonfurman

Feb 13
I'm uncertain about the trajectory of inflation.

But even conditional on my inflation views, I'm even more uncertain about what exactly monetary policy should do. Nervous about overreacting but also nervous about being so far from a reasonable place now.

So just, well, nervous.
There are good reasons to think inflation will go down (shift to services, massive stimulus behind us, workers returning, global supply chains unsnarl, normalized endemic COVID). A number of these arguments are overstated, often in the same way, but collectively plausible.
There are also good reasons to think inflation will go up (tighter labor markets, higher inflation expectations, wage-price spiral, continued excess demand with accelerations Phillips curve, normalized endemic COVID). (Yes, normalized endemic COVID is on both lists.)
Read 11 tweets
Feb 13
Over the next yr the labor force participation rate could rise by an astounding ~0.9 percentage point if all of the people who have left the labor force return.

The last time we've seen anything like this was 1976, 1977 & 1978.

Maybe not so comforting for inflation.

A short 🧵
The labor force participation fell sharply when COVID hit & is still far from recovered. Now 1pp below where it would have been if all the age-sex participation rates had stayed the same. This is due to a combo of ages and genders. (Discontinuity is the population controls.) ImageImage
It's plausible that many of these people will come back over something like the next year if COVID becomes more manageably endemic or more ignored.

If these workers come back that will be great for incomes, employment, GDP, and much more.

But will it be great for inflation?
Read 7 tweets
Feb 12
One part I love about @ezraklein's podcast is his guests recommend three books at the end. I had a chance to recommend three on the Podcast I just did with him, will link to my Goodreads reviews of them in the next three tweets. nytimes.com/2022/02/08/pod…
Who We Are and How We Got Here by uses ancient genetic data to paint a complex picture of the history of humanity. He manages to charts the ups and downs of inequality hundreds of thousands of years ago. Amazing science. goodreads.com/review/show/23…
.@JoHenrich's The WEIRDest People in the World uses genetics, history, evolutionary biology, economics, and more to understand the causes and consequences of the culture he calls Western Educated Industrialized Rich Democratic. goodreads.com/review/show/34…
Read 6 tweets
Feb 12
A thread on the perils of interpreting moving averages that will be of interest to almost no one. Also has implications for annual averages which is a slightly more important topic. This fleshes out one aspect of my error with the Atlanta Fed wage data.
I'll use a made up hypothetical of the following wage data. What would you say happened to wages in the pandemic period (which for expositional simplicity I'm drawing as starting in 2020)?

I think you would say wages fell in the pandemic.
The right calculation for what happened in wages in the pandemic would be:

Wage growth in pandemic = (wage level Dec 2021 / wage level Dec 2019).

In the picture above this is -1% if you annualize (take the square root to get growth per year).
Read 15 tweets
Feb 11
My charts on the distribution of real wage growth were flat out wrong, as @IrvingSwisher correctly pointed out. I'm deleting all of the tweets (here's a screenshot of one so you know what I'm talking about). Feel terrible to have put this out.

This 🧵 explains more fully.
The question I was trying to ask was what has happened to wage growth adjusted for inflation by different income groups & how does it compare to pre-COVID.

The broad inference is likely still true but possibly less bad than I showed (it is unclear). The data was wrong.
I still believe the following are true for the period from the pandemic to today:

1. On average nominal wages have increased more slowly than inflation.

2. Faster wage gains for lower-wage workers

3. For most groups any inflation-adjusted gains are smaller than pre-pandemic.
Read 19 tweets
Feb 10
Even if all firms are perfectly competitive an increase in demand will result in an increase in profits in the "short run"--the short run being a potentially long period until new entrants can compete the profits away.

A 🧵 with an refresher/explainer on the Ec10 of this.
The left-hand curves are the normal supply & demand, they show the market as a whole. The supply curve is the sum of the products supplied by many, many firms. Demand increases for some reason (a taste shift, strong economy, stimulus checks, whatever). The result is P and Q up.
The right-hand curves are from the perspective of a single firm. It is just a small firm in a big competitive market with no pricing power so it "sees" a horizontal demand curve. It can sell it wants at that price but nothing if it raises the price a penny above it.
Read 13 tweets

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