Thank you $UPST for blowing our mind (again)!
Between over-excitement & despair after any particular quarterly results, the LT investor focus should remain the same.

-If/how their lending model is truly benefitting the borrowers & Financial institutions (compared to other/traditional lending options).
-How their models are evolving over time with more & more consumer data and past loan performance.

-How they are increasing their Bank partner numbers for personal & auto loans.
-Trending of operational metrics like # total loans, transacted volume, conversion rate, contribution margin, # fully automated loans & fraud rate, overall default/loss rate compared to other lending models.

-Traction/Performance in Auto

-Details on other products in pipeline
Few pts to keep in mind though

1) Even if they claim to be fee based rather than tied directly to credit risk, overall consumer lending activity (personal/auto/mortgage/credit card..) will be heavily dependent on the credit & economic cycle.
This could be partly combated for $UPST as they're constantly expanding the borrower funnel (due to increasing partnerships & products)
2) Also the investor perception for anything tied to non-recurring, and lending/credit based business model will be negative during Bear Markets and recessions. So stock could see some big downdrafts even with only reasonable business impact.
3) So it's easy to claim to be LT investor during the good times, but each investor has to decide whether they want to take some/all profits along the way or go thru an entire credit cycle being a shareholder (in businesses related to lending).

/END

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More from @RamBhupatiraju

Feb 16
Any $RBLX experts here (other than @honam who might not be able to comment)?

Just quickly went over the results. Most metrics look OK, except for recent Bookings trend.

DAUs & Engagement (as of Jan-22) still increasing but Booking decreasing YoY? Image
Tough COVID comps or something more at play here (or I'm just misreading it)?

I guess explanations will come on the call tmrw.

(Are parents finally winning the battle of not paying for Robux for the 10th time in a month ? I doubt it😀)
Thank you for all the comments. Yes higher DAU growth & lower bookings from Developing Markets could be causing some of this (will have to wait & see from full commentary/call).
Read 8 tweets
Feb 13
"115 Profitable Investing Ideas" by @Greg_Speicher👏is one of my fav docs to recommend to individual investors.

An yearly reading of this will be very beneficial to most investors.

cc: @dmuthuk @Gautam__Baid

pdfcoffee.com/115-profitable…
My fav pts from the document (actually most of it).⬇️
Few more ⬇️
Read 6 tweets
Feb 11
Best Businesses in the World to study🏆

For those inspiring to be Business focused long-term investors, below would be my recommendations of Businesses to intensely study.

30 old and 30 new Companies and my reasons to include them. ⬇️
Read up on their origin stories
-Their Mission, purpose and Values
-Main products/services & evolution
-Business models
-Customer focused & long-term oriented Management Teams that created/re-created their Success
-Company culture, Capital Allocation,
-Creating/extending Moats
-Leveraging Technology and adapting to times
-Finally long-term Financial statements to put everything into perspective....
Read 17 tweets
Feb 11
OK, that's new. All 7 holdings reporting this week had decent to great Qtrs and none of the stocks got clobbered post ERs.

$CMG
$PTON
$PAYC
$DIS
$TWLO
$DDOG
$NET

Suspect won't be as lucky with the ERs in the next two weeks.
That was a beautiful quarter from $DDOG and a pretty decent one for $NET. Keep doing your thing.
Hey! What's up with that $TWLO though?

Yesterday AH : +25%
Today opening : +15%
Today closing : +2%
Inflation print ruined Jeff's party.😕
Read 4 tweets
Feb 10
Good to see some surprises from $TWLO.

With ongoing Digital transformation projects, more & more Cos trying to own their Customer relationship and changes in data privacy landscape, both Communication & Engagement products could have plenty of runway.

s21.q4cdn.com/963721274/file… Image
My fav parts of the comments from Jeff Lawson.

For anyone new, this gives a good view of what they are doing and where they are trying to go with the whole Customer Engagement Platform on top of their Communications platform. Image
Some comments from Khozema Shipchandler (COO) on strategy and guidance. Image
Read 7 tweets
Feb 9
As much as I love the Tech growth Cos, I enjoy being a LT shareholder in Chipotle $CMG even more (since 2014).🌯

One of the most Peter Lynchian stocks you can find in the US.
Checks so many of the boxes

✔️Simple concept to experience and understand (at a Unit/Corporate level)

✔️Customer loved and with some pricing power

✔️Steady Unit & Rev growth growth per year

✔️Great Unit economics at Restaurant level
✔️Growth funded with internal cash flows

✔️Decent Corporate level Margins

✔️Clean balance sheet with no dilution

✔️Good Management that is investing in all the right places - Digital, Menu innovation, Branding/Marketing, Drive thrus....
Read 8 tweets

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