$TTD @TheTradeDesk

🧵

The company beat on every metric we follow from Q4 revenue, revenue growth, and profitability metrics and margins to next quarter's guidance for the same.

/1
There are three questions for all companies facing these comps:

1. Can companies beat the estimates for the quarter, even if the grow itself will look less than before?

/2
2. Will guidance out of the quarter exceed estimates, implying that the COVID year wasn’t just a “pull forward,” but rather simply a new, higher base on which to continue growth?

/3
3. Can profitability improve in Q4 2021, even as growth slows for the comparable period a year before?

The answers to these questions for TTD are yes, yes, and yes.

Let's see them...

/4
• $TTD delivered 24% growth for Q4 2021 compared to Q4 2020 versus estimates of 22%.

• $TTD guided to 38% growth for Q1 2022 compared to Q1 2021 versus estimates of 30.5%. This is a substantial beat.

/5
• $TTD delivered a 25% rise in adjusted EBITDA compared to Q1 2021, outpacing revenue growth (23%) versus estimates of 16% growth. Further, TTD delivered a mind blowing 48.4% EBITDA margin versus estimates of 45.6%.

/6
Everything is working for $TTD, and any selling pressure in the near-term off of these results is due not to financial performance, but simply a reflection of an elevated valuation.

/7
As for $GOOGL impact on $TTD and OpenPath:

"A very small per cent of our business runs through Google’s Ad Exchange, we are not dependent on Google for our business. The market will always ultimately gravitate to transparency and competition over time."

/8
An investment in @TheTradeDesk is simply and investment in the non-walled garden advertising world; the "rest of the Internet."

Either that’s your cup of tea or it isn’t.

/9
$TTD $ROKU

Finally, we got feedback from the current Senior Director, Global Head of Platform at Roku who was a former Regional VP, Business Development – West at The Trade Desk.

That and our next CFO one-on-one, is for members.

Get CML Pro
bit.ly/CMLPro

10/10

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More from @OphirGottlieb

Feb 12
$ROKU 🧵

* 34% of Q3 2021 spend in OneView used an algorithm that optimizes to an action. That’s up 27% compared to Q1 2021.

* The number of Roku customers using interactive ad units increased by about 34% year-over-year (YoY).

/1
* Advertiser spend on Roku Audiences is nearly as high as what brands spend on their own first-party segments. Both are derived from direct consumer relationships. 

/2
* Reach on ad-supported channels grew by 23% from Q3 2020 to Q3 2021. 

* Streaming hours of ad-supported channels on Roku also out-paced growth in overall streaming hours.

/3
Read 4 tweets
Feb 2
🧵 via @conviva

Connected TVs’ share of viewing time fell for the first time ever, and
of connected TV-first device manufacturers, only $Roku grew, while Apple TV and Amazon Fire TV dropped 1% and 7%, respectively.

pages.conviva.com/rs/138-XJA-134…

/1
Growth

/2
Growth by brand for TVs (glass and metal boxes)

/3
Read 4 tweets
Jan 26
$ONDS Thread

Going to be small to start.

Remember plan: under promise over deliver in an industry that did the opposite for a decade. 

1 Prove it small

2 Win fleets

3 Win all of it

$500K --> $100M is the plan for the blue chips.. for each one.

(Total Contract Value)

/1
$ONDS 🧵

Each Scout is $50Kyr x 5 yrs.

71% FCF margin.

This the third one they have and the second Fortune 100 company. 

The other Fortune 100 is ConocoPhillips. They are going after oil & gas first bc these companies have infinite dollars and desire for this.

/2
$ONDS and @AmericanRobotic will win or lose not on the first set of orders this year.

They will will or lose on the next orders.

Go from 1-3 Scouts per order to 100-300.

At 71% free cash flow margin on each one, it turns big fast.

Or... not.

/3
Read 4 tweets
Jan 26
Just some thoughts on $AAPL, IDFA, and CTV.

🧵
Apple tripled it's mobile ad business in 6-mos by revoking access to IFDA (and keeping it for its own us.

But... this also made CTV money as funds flowed out of mobile ads.

/1
This also made Google Search money.

Apple receives a material chunk of its famed Apple Services revenue from Google for its default search status on iPhones.

Making Google Search worth more means than bill is gonna rise for Google --> yet more money for AAPL.

/2
But, that's not enough for Apple.

Mobile ads ✅
Search payment ✅

Ah... remember that bit about CTV?

Good... Apple wants that too, which is a part of why I think there will be an actual glass and metal Apple TV.

/3
Read 6 tweets
Jan 25
here we go
$MSFT guidance

noting FX

/2
$MSFT

guidance...

noting comps will be hard and FX headwinds...

/3
Read 13 tweets
Jan 10
Thread

$ROKU

The story for Roku has gone from simple to complex.

The year of 2020 has been called the "digital transformation," and it was.

It thrust technology usage three to five years forward in a one year period.

/1
$ROKU

The companies that will benefit most from this acceleration of time, or if you prefer, "contraction of time," are the ones with most resources. That's money and people.

It's no wonder then that the megas caps ruled all of 2021.

/2
They were able to see which of the many various markets they had staked a small claim to, that then needed a serious claim.

Connected TV was one of those "needed" thematics.

...

/3
Read 9 tweets

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