Thread by @suvam_samal

As the #Russia-#Ukraine crisis intensifies into a looming possibility of Russian #invasion of Ukraine, some experts calling this geopolitical event the most intense since the Soviet Era Cold War, let's look into why this is happening and what's at stake!
#UkraineCrisis

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#Russia and #Ukraine are among 15 republics that were once a part of the erstwhile Soviet Union also known as the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics(USSR). The USSR was a communist behemoth that ruled the vast majority of Eurasia in the 20th Century.

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The East Slavic states (Belarus, #Ukraine and #Russia) were key players in the dissolution of the USSR in 1991. In December 1991, the representatives of these states met in Belarus and declared to the world that the Soviet Union no longer existed.

britannica.com/event/the-coll…

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It was the dissolution of the Soviet Union that led to the formation of the Commonwealth of Independent States(CIS) in its place. The CIS is a regional intergovernmental association of sovereign countries in Europe and Asia.

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It consists of 9 member states(Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, #Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan), 1 associate state(Turkmenistan) and 2 observer states (Afghanistan and Mongolia).

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The main objective of the CIS is to encourage economic, political, military and security affairs. Some of you may have already noticed that a few of the ex-Soviet states (Georgia, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania and #Ukraine) of the erstwhile Soviet Union are missing from CIS.

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The Baltic states (Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania) had gained independence after the Russian Revolution in 1917.Despite their non aggression treaties with the Soviet Union from 1920s-1930s, they were occupied, and forcibly incorporated into the Soviet Union, in 1940.

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When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the Baltic States when given an option to join CIS, but they refused to be a part of it. Fairly so!
Georgia, following the Russo-Georgian War in 2008, withdrew its membership from CIS.

reuters.com/article/us-geo…

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#Ukraine never became a member state but was a founding member state of the CIS. #Ukraine had always participated in the CIS statutory body since 1993. #Ukraine left CIS in 2018 due to its continued hostile relationship with #Russia.

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Ukraine's policy was always to ensure its independence and sovereignty with a balanced relationship and cooperation with the #Russia, European Union (EU), and other powerful and influential entities.

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But the relationship between the ex-Soviet sisters #Russia and #Ukraine have not been so friendly after all, especially after what happened in 2014. In the month of November 2013, a huge protest, known to some as Euromaidan, erupted in #Ukraine.

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It was in reaction to then Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych's refusal to sign a free trade agreement and a political association with the EU at a meeting in Lithuania. The protests would garner strength and continued to escalate.

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The protests turned violent in February 2014, when a group of protesters and riot police clashed, resulting in death of nearly 112 civilians and 18 police officers. Yanukovych fled from the capital Kyiv fearing an impeachment.

theguardian.com/world/2014/feb…

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Protestors and unknown shooters took control of Ukrainian government buildings. The Ukrainian parliament ousted Yanukovych & overthrew the government. This uprising of common people against the government came to be known as the Revolution of Dignity or Maidan Revolution.

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Yanukovych cried out loud stating that his ousting was coerced and illegal and asked #Russia for assistance. #Russia considered the revolution as an illegal coup and did not recognize the interim government.

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In the aftermath of the Revolution of Dignity, a crisis emerged in Crimea where the protests were staged by ethnic Russian groups who opposed what happened in the revolution. The groups demanded autonomy/independence along with close ties/integration with the Russia.

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On the other hand, the Crimean Tartars, an Ukrainian ethnic group with roots in Crimea, protested in support of the revolution. The protests would continue to grow stronger and on 26th February 2014, pro-Russian group and Crimean Tartars clashed.
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On 27 February 2014, Russian special forces, masked and unmarked, took control over Crimea. Following the siege, the Supreme Council of Crimea disbanded the autonomous government and appointed Sergey Aksyonov as the Head of Republic of Crimea.

theguardian.com/world/2014/mar…

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On 1st March 2014, the Russian parliament granted President Vladimir Putin the power to use military force in Ukraine without the declaration of war. On the same day, #Ukraine decreed the appointment of Head of Republic of Crimea as unconstitutional.

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In March, #Russia recognized Crimea as a sovereign state. #Ukraine responded with sanctions against #Russia and withdrew all its armed forces from Crimea. During the same time, pro-Russian movements spread in Ukraine, giving birth to Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republic.

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Protests across southern and eastern Ukraine (Donbas region) in the aftermath of the revolution escalated into an armed conflict between the separatist forces of the self-proclaimed Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics (LPR and DPR), and the Ukrainian Government.

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It is important to note that the Donbas region in Ukraine has a Russian ethnic majority. Russia took advantage of the protests in Ukraine to launch a well coordinated military and political attack against Ukraine.

crisisgroup.org/content/confli…

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Russia in its official statement had always proclaimed that it was “forced to” take action and “defend the Russian speaking population” in Ukraine. Ukraine launched a military operation against the pro-Russian separatists in April 2014.

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The Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 disaster, in which 283 passengers and 15 crew members were killed on 17th July 2014, was shot down by a Russian missile from pro-Russian separatist controlled territory in Ukraine during this time!

indianexpress.com/article/explai…

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By August 2014, this operation was fairly successful and Ukraine was able to reclaim a vast territory. In response to this military operation, Russia adopted a more direct approach and began invading Donbas region.

theguardian.com/world/2014/aug…

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The annexation of Crimea and the ongoing war in the Donbas region made the Ukrainian government realize that it would be wise to commit Ukraine’s future within the EU and NATO, rather than to balance its own economic and security interests with Russia, the EU, and NATO.

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In 2019, amendments were made to the Ukraine’s Constitution which laid out a inevitable path towards NATO and EU. The ever growing relationship between the Ukrainian government and NATO members continues to irk the Russian government.
reuters.com/article/us-rus…

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Russia believes that Ukraine joining forces with NATO has nothing to do with NATO modernizing its alliance or security of Europe. Long story short, Ukraine joining NATO would be an hostile act against the Russian Federation, as stated by Vladimir Putin himself.

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For Russia, the region surrounding the Black Sea is strategically of high importance. The Black Sea serves as a gateway to Europe. The control of Crimea gives the Russian military continuous access to its naval base at Sevastopol.

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Crimea provides Russia the power to boss around Europe, while serving as a epitome of Russian Supremacy. It also provides the Russian Navy with access to the Mediterranean Sea, South Atlantic and Indian Ocean, upgrading Russian Military’s offense and defense potential.

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Military advances is not the only reason for takeover of Crimea. It is one of the wealthiest regions of Ukraine. Without it, Ukraine is less attractive economic option for the West. Russia now holds power to shape events inside Ukraine to counter EU and NATO expansion.

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The tension between Russia and Ukraine further escalated in the first quarter of 2021. There were growing incidents and casualties in the border region. In March 2021, a large movement of military units from Russian soil to the Ukrainian border was observed.

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Putin described “Ukraine’s Intention to join NATO” as a “security threat” to Russia. The USA and the EU threatened economic sanctions on Russia if it were to proceed with its plan of invasion. In February 2022, large movements of Russian military units could be seen.

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The intelligence reported that about 130000 Russian troops, along with artillery, fighter jets, helicopters and tanks, could be seen surrounding the borders across Ukraine in attack formation. U.S security advisor warned that there was an imminent threat of an invasion.

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The effects would be felt all over the world. American, European and Asian markets tumbled. Oil and precious metal prices soared up in anticipation of war. However, Moscow announced a partial pullback of forces from near Ukraine on Tuesday.

bbc.com/news/business-…

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The news, however, was met with skepticism. The President of United States of America, Joe Biden said that more than 130,000 Russian troops were still surrounding Ukraine's borders. Numerous media groups and individuals also confirmed the same.

bloombergquint.com/politics/biden…

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There is a very good chance that Russia will not invade. If Russia does so, it would be too expensive in terms of both Russian lives and economy. Let's not forget that the economic sanctions that would follow would haunt Russia.

reuters.com/markets/europe…

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In the border, the Ukrainian soldiers are not naïve, they are determined to fight and die for Ukraine. History is the best witness as to what we as humans can do for freedom! Also Russian soldiers are attacking, what majority of Russians think of as a friendly country.

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With inflation rising worldwide and a depression like scenario already knocking at the door of the world, Russian President Vladimir Putin is smart enough to understand what he could lead his country and the world into.

reuters.com/markets/europe…

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With that said, past is the witness that the smartest people have sometimes taken the dumbest decisions! Let's wish we don't see that again!
If you have reached this tweet, Kudos to your patience.
Please LIKE & RETWEET if you feel that you have learnt something!
Thanks!

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Just came across groundbreaking content from @VICENews in #Ukraine from 2013-2014. youtube.com/playlist?list=… #Russia #Ukraine #UkraineCrisis #UkraineInvasion #RussiaUkraineCrisis #RussiaInvadedUkraine