Thread by @mafevema

Interesting from @markpack.
"There’s a lesson we should learn from Brexiters. It’s that for most of the road to the tragedy of the 2016 referendum they weren’t Brexiters but Euro-sceptics. 1/

For most of that time, they weren’t campaigning for Brexit to happen tomorrow, but against a particular aspect of the EU. That is how they built up a broad coalition of support to get Brexit through.2/

In turn, we need to do the same in reverse - to recognise that even many Remainers are put off by ‘let’s rejoin the EU now!’ but that even those who voted Leave can be won over by campaigning issue by issue on the merits of cooperation with our neighbours."
Sounds about right.3/

Also in his Newswire, an analysis of Brexit polls
Europe isn't high up most people's agenda. Under 1 in 5 people (18%) mentioning Europe as one of the most important issues facing Britain
60% of people think the government has been handling Brexit badly (to 30% well) 4/

However this is still better than the 2019 figures by a large margin. Even as late as November 2019, i.e. after Boris Johnson had took over and just before his general election win, the lead for badly was over 50 points.5/

On whether the right or wrong decision was taken in the referendum, the figures have moved in a more pro-European direction, with wrong typically about 11 points ahead of right this year, which is up from neck and neck in the middle of last year. 6/

BUT this is not because more people now think the wrong decision was taken. In fact that figure has fallen slightly & it is "don't knows" that are up. It's been a small, low single digits, swing from thinking it was the right decision to don't know. So disaffected Brexiters. 7/

Coming to the crunch question - should we be in or out of the EU - there's been a clear trend through last year to greater support for Britain being in the EU. But that's been a trend taking support back to where it was in much of 2020, and still only marginally over 50%. 8/

Overall, @markpack quotes Curtice saying the polls shows that "pessimism among Remain voters about the consequences of Brexit has grown, while some of the optimism among Leave voters has dissipated. Confidence in the government’s handling of Brexit has declined 9/

in parallel with the trend in perception of its consequences". Good.
But according to @markpack this trend may not be specifically about Brexit. Part of it is likely about viewing the government & the PM less favourably &giving more negative answers about its policies. 10/

Curtice concludes:
"it is unwise to assume that the debate is over. Indeed, according to Savanta, nearly a half of voters (48%) think that there should be another referendum within 10 years, while only 39% believe it should be delayed longer than that (if held at all)"11/

Hold on there.