Thread by @lymanstoneky

I think this is wrong. There will never be a surprise attack, because Russia's strategy rests on an overpowering aerial assault, electronic warfare, massive bombardment, etc. Russia cannot actually afford to take huge losses of ground troops.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1494680311220817925

So literally no matter when Russia attacks, it would have to be presaged by huge accumulation of troops and equipment and considerable action prior to crossing the border.

Key to remember that Ukraine's military actually has more men than Russia has available to invade.

And to provide that invasion force, Russia has basically stripped the districts east of the Urals of almost their entire military force. If somebody wanted to make a move on Siberia or whatever, now would be the time.

What makes the difference is that Russia has massive superiority in airpower and equipment. And since that is the difference, any Russian victory would be entirely predicted on amassing and using that equipment, which eliminates the possibility of surprise.

My general view is that, if Russia is considering invasion, probably the bigger timeline issue is the weather. The spring thaw has arrived solidly a month earlier than planned, it's been raining, and it's gonna keep raining.

This isn't necessarily a massive issue east of the Dnieper where most of the invasion would occur along major roads, but west of the Dnieper the route from Belarus pretty much requires going through some mud. Russia has even put pontoon bridges across some rivers.