James Murray Profile picture
Feb 18 4 tweets 2 min read
This piece is every bit as dense as you’d expect of a London Review of Books article on the work of a Nobel-winning economist, but it’s also absolute 🔥🔥🔥☄️.
I particularly like this bit. The problem is not economic modelling, it’s the certainty with which it is deployed.
And yes, you could say the same of climate models, but modelling based on physical laws is gonna be more confident than economic modelling, plus it tends to be better about talking about ranges and scenarios.
In contrast, we’re being asked to bet the civilisational farm on the assumption growth continues even as temperatures spiral past 2C. At the very least there should be an acknowledgment this is a very sizeable gamble beset by massive uncertainties.

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More from @James_BG

Feb 12
Almost the ur-text for the new climate sceptics from Andrew Neil here:
- suggest there’s a simple solution to the gas price crisis ✅
- blame ‘green blob’ and ‘mad’ politicians ✅
- quote highly questionable projections for fracking production and jobs ✅ dailymail.co.uk/debate/article…
- make no mention of negligible impact UK gas production would have on domestic prices without export bans or nationalisation ✅
- big up nuclear but make no mention of cost implications ✅
- make no mention of energy efficiency ✅
- and most of all, in no way address what to do about the increased carbon emissions, climate risks, and exposure to volatile prices associated with increased gas reliance ✅
Read 4 tweets
Feb 4
Quick thread to go with this blog. One of the defining features of the recent attacks on net zero is the failure to provide much in the way of detail on what they'd do instead. businessgreen.com/blog/4044475/s…
In that regard it's very similar to the attacks on red tape, which once you dig into the detail ends up with PM's waffling on about newts (Johnson) or voles (Cameron) and Ministers failing to find any regs that can be axed without significant economic damage or political blowback
The idea we should 'go slow on net zero' has the same lack of detail. The only tangible proposals I've seen are: 1) get fracking
2) axe green levies
3) scrap 2030 new petrol and diesel car phase out date
Read 9 tweets
Jan 16
What does he mean by a ‘more proportionate’ approach to net zero? What exact policies would he scrap? How much higher would he want emissions to be? Which clean tech sector would he like to slow the development of? How much more would have to be spent on climate resilience?
There’s an entire strain of modern Conservatism that is defined by nothing so much as whining about things it doesn’t like and denying objective reality. It has literally nothing constructive to offer beyond wishful thinking and the abdication of responsibility.
BTW there is an obvious policy agenda that could fit with Frost and co’s ‘proportionate’ response to net zero and I don’t doubt eventually they’ll land on it to give them some cover. It’ll be ‘let’s sit here and wait for technology to save us’.
Read 5 tweets
Jan 3
This exchange is really important. Sam’s argument is that if we’d gone faster on renewables and energy efficiency then we’d currently be having to buy less gas and bills would be lower. This is objectively and demonstrably true.
Andy from the IEA’s response is that if we’d invested more in domestic gas supplies and been less ‘dogmatically’ focused on net zero we’d have to import less gas and bills would be lower. This is entirely hypothetical and based on at least three questionable assumptions:
1. That you could build a large shale gas industry in the UK in defiance of massive local opposition and planning constraints.
Read 8 tweets
Jan 3
The Net Zero ‘Scrutiny’ Group’s proposals for dealing with the gas price crisis are so absurdly partial their inadequacy becomes clear within the first five paragraphs of a story they themselves have briefed. A hopefully shortish thread…
Let’s leave aside the question of whether pressure can be ‘piled on’ by ‘backbenchers’ when those backbenchers number just 19 of the usual suspects while a far larger number of backbenchers are thinking much more seriously about this challenge, and instead look at their proposal.
The main idea is to ‘scrap green taxes’ that make up a quarter of electricity - but not gas - bills and axe the 5% VAT rate on energy bills.
Read 23 tweets
Nov 13, 2021
Was #COP26 a success or a failure is an absurdly simplistic question. It's a both/and. As @Bankfieldbecky has noted it depends on whether you are looking to relative or absolute metrics.
But it is indisputable progress. It does increase the chances of getting the world to net zero and 'well below' 2C, even if 1.5C remains an enormous stretch, and it starts to at least engage with questions of historic injustice.
It is also a genuine diplomatic success for @AlokSharma_RDG @archieyounguk @camillaborn and the COP26 team. It is hard to see how a stronger deal could have been delivered with the mandates country delegations had.
Read 8 tweets

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