Thread by @McFaul

In testimony for the US Congress this week, I outlined what I thought were Putin's aims in threatening war against Ukraine. fsi-live.s3.us-west-1.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/mc… Let me summarize in a thread. 1/ THREAD

"Some political leaders, elected officials, and analysts have argued that we could end this conflict overnight by just ending NATO’s open-door policy. That analysis is wrong." 2/

"First, this argument assumes that Putin would credibly commit to a new agreement and stop threatening Ukraine’s sovereignty. Why? He already has violated numerous European treaties and agreements that Moscow signed in the past..." 3/

"..., including most germane to this current crisis, the 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances for Ukraine. Why should anyone in Kyiv, Brussels, or Washington believe Putin will be more sincere this time around? " 4/

"Second, Putin understands perfectly well that he has invented from scratch this alleged threat of Ukrainian membership in NATO. Give Putin credit; he has framed this crisis as one about NATO expansion, and unfortunately, many ... have accepted Putin’s narrative." 5/

"Putin of course knows fully well that NATO will not accept new members that have Russian soldiers occupying parts of their territory. That’s why Putin invaded Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014 and now occupies parts of both countries. It’s a tragic fact." 6/

"Third, while Putin has distracted the West with the shiny object of NATO expansion, he has continued to march forward on a much larger, destabilizing agenda of undermining democracy in his neighborhood." 7/

"Democratic expansion, not NATO expansion, threaten Putin and his autocratic regime. He has said so very explicitly many times, including most recently in his joint statement with Chinese leader Xi Jinping..." 8/

"Since so-called color revolutions in Georgia in 2003 and Ukraine in 2004, Putin has deployed multiple instruments of power to undermine democracy and sovereignty in these countries." 9/

"Putin’s massive military buildup on Ukraine’s borders is just the latest tactic in this long-term campaign. Already, the threat of invasion has profoundly stressed the Ukrainian economy." 10/

Fourth...Putin seeks to unite a single Slavic nation of Russia, Ukraine & Belarus which he thinks was unjustly divided after the collapse of the Soviet Union. In a recent long historical article, Putin explained why Ukrainians and Russians are from one nation or one people." 11/

"Fifth, more broadly, Putin aspires to first weaken and ideally destroy European multilateral institutions and continental norms about democracy and human rights." 12/

"Putin personally, as well as Russian state-controlled media, Russian money, and Russian non-governmental and religious actors, have cultivated ties with European and American leaders, groups, and media who share Putin’s populist, orthodox, nationalist ideology." 13/

"Putin understands well that the fight today between autocracy and democracy is not only between countries but within countries, including our own." 14/

"Of course, Putin wants to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO and interrupt current military cooperation between Ukraine and NATO countries. But his revisionist agenda is much larger than that." 15/

"For as long as he rules Russia, Putin will continue to normalize annexation, deny sovereignty to neighbors, undermine democratic regimes, ideas, and societies, and undo the liberal international order." 16/ END THREAD.