1. Excerpts of the CH Discussion on 20th February 2022
2. FED's Balance sheet has ballooned to $9 Trillion & Global CBs to $25 Trillion in the last 14 years with 60-80 % (across various CBs)happening in the last 2 years yet the markets have stopped going up. Limited utility of extra money being pumped into the system
3. All the Major US indices; DAX; Nikkei; Hang Seng, Shanghai; KOSPI & TAIEX are trading below their 200 DMAs. Only FTSE & SGX are in clear Bull Markets, while Nifty/BN are down just by 7-10 % from their ATHs & are staying above 200 DMA.
1.STATE OF GLOBAL MARKETS: Have been mentioning in various CH/Spaces Discussions that Global Equity Markets are structurally weak. The boost to Equities by the CBs in Mar 2020 seems to be fizzling out. Let's see how the picture looks one by one
2. NIFTY : Same levels were seen in early Sep '21
3. BANK NIFTY : Even in February 2021 we saw these levels.
Early morning rants :1.Screenshots: Why do veteran & well respected Traders regularly put up Screen Shots of their successful trades ?. Never understood what is the purpose. What is the learning for any student of the market by looking at the screen shots ?.
2.One-upmanship : Why do veteran & well respected traders try to demean other veteran & well respected traders by using unparliamentary words?. Don't they realise that their own status is demeaned by such actions ?
3.Closed Minds : Why do veteran & well respected traders get "Invested" so heavily in their Points of View that they are unwilling to accept a well thought out opposing view which may actually help everyone including them.?
1.Comment is free but facts are sacred. In the spirit of PTLP of @Iamsamirarora"Defending against criticism that RBI's inflation projection in the policy might be a tad optimistic,Mistry said that RBI's projections about inflation have been fairly accurate cnbctv18.com/economy/keki-m…
2. Forecast of RBI : Professional forecasters surveyed4 by the Reserve Bank in March 2021 expected CPI inflation to ease from 4.9-5.0 per cent in H1:2021-22 to 4.3 per cent in Q3 and revert to 5.0 per cent in Q4 (Chart I.5).rbi.org.in/Scripts/Public…
Major General Basavaraj Gilganchi AVSM (Retd) is a Presidential Award Winner.A veteran of 37 years who has seen active Military operations both conventional & counter insurgency operations. His domain Knowledge is Information & Communication Technology (New age Warfare).
1. Excerpts from the discussion held : Major Gen Basavaraj Gilganchi AVSM(Retd)opined that : This standoff can be a long drawn out affair with Putin being in the driving seat.
1.The"Perfect Storm" of "Backwardation" & "Gamma Squeeze". Backwardation in an asset class happens when far month Future prices are lower than Spot prices, which is rare, since Futures are expected to be higher than Spot to take care of "Cost of Carry".
2. Backwardation can occur as a result of a higher demand for an asset currently than the contracts maturing in the coming months through the futures market.
Traders use backwardation to make a profit by selling short at the current price and buying at the lower futures price.
3.Take the case of Oil,Backwardation has been prevailing for quite some months & it has been as high as 5-7 %. Traders seem to have been very confident that Demand will fall off with the end of winter but that has clearly not happened. Now there is a scramble to cover.