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Jan Wüstenfeld Profile picture
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Feb 19 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
While Open Interest relative to pre-2021 is still high, it is down from its high levels in November. If you ask me, I think that the higher open interest than pre-2021 is the new normal, and OI is at healthy levels. #Bitcon $BTC Image
Looking at raw OI (OI that does not fluctuate in value based on #Bitcoin's price fluctuations), we can see that coin-margined contracts have decreased strongly. In contrast, stablecoin-margined contracts continue to be at high levels. Image
The increase in stablecoin-margined contracts is not surprising, since these contracts are getting more and more popular/available relative to coin-margined contracts.
This is a positive development, as this means that the volatility on downturns will likely become less pronounced over time. For stablecoin-margined contracts, no collateral (bitcoin) has to be sold on downturns when a future contract loss is realized.

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More from @JanWues

Jan Wüstenfeld Profile picture
Feb 21
While the supply of #Bitcoin is becoming more illiquid, which is good, network activity remains relatively low and partially even decreases further. A thread on network activity.

Considering the total on-chain transaction value of $BTC since mid-2021 it has been low. Image
The value transacted on-chain has been picking up a bit on the second price peak in late 2021 but remained below that of the first peak. Currently it is closer to the capitulation levels after #Bitcoin's first ATH in 2021
Note: I am using data from @ByteTree here, as they e.g., exclude complex transactions such as Coinjoin transactions, etc., which artificially inflates the value transacted on-chain.
Read 11 tweets
Jan Wüstenfeld Profile picture
Feb 18
With all the positive fundamental developments for #Bitcoin it is important to keep in mind that this market continues to be heavily driven by macro uncertainty, which is high inflation, hawkish central banks, and currently also conflicts such as in Ukraine. $BTC Image
So #Bitcoin's supply can get overall thinner, but it does not have to be reflected in the price right now. Price action suggests that those in control of price currently are the ones that see bitcoin as a high-risk asset.
Most likely those are participants from traditional finance and also those who play the derivatives markets. So it is not surprising that we see such high correlations of #Bitcoin's price with stocks etc...
Read 5 tweets
Jan Wüstenfeld Profile picture
Dec 3, 2021
Financial markets are reacting negatively to the new BLS jobs report that was somewhat mixed. Notice how the DXY appreciated while #Bitcoin price went down around its release.
This shows once more that, even if we don't want it to be true, $BTC is not isolated from what is happening in the economy or what the FED is doing. Particularly the fact that Bitcoin is moving down with stocks etc., is somewhat concerning.
While I don't believe the FED will go through with their plans to actually taper, as this likely would be followed by a strong reaction of financial markets, I think it is important to think about what happens if they go through with it.
Read 6 tweets
Jan Wüstenfeld Profile picture
Dec 1, 2021
Accidentally deleted the former thread. So here is the repost:

With another spot #Bitcoin ETF being launched in Canada, I think it is worth revisiting the development of the Canadienne spot Bitcoin Purpurse ETF. Its $BTC holdings increased substantially after its launch. Image
AUM then started to stall and even partially to decline since July. After #Bitcoin's price breaching a new ATH in October, interest has been coming back again, and AUM has started to increase a bit more substantially.
Currently, AUM is sitting at about 24.64k $BTC. However, it is not increasing as strongly anymore, as it has been right after Bitcoin's price making a new ATH.
Read 6 tweets
Jan Wüstenfeld Profile picture
Oct 21, 2021
Little Update on my @Cryptoquant Quicktake from yesterday

Update on Stablecoin Reserves on Exchanges and #Bitcoin Exchange Balances Hitting New Lows /1

cryptoquant.com/quicktake/6171…
Overall the stablecoin reserves on exchanges yesterday increased slightly and did not go down despite BTC hitting a new ATH. Additionally, BTC exchange balances on exchanges continue to go down. /2
Considering the Quicktacke from yesterday, this means:

- stablecoins are rotated into $BTC 🔄
- but at the same time, enough fresh capital is coming in to compensate for that 💰

/3
Read 5 tweets
Jan Wüstenfeld Profile picture
Oct 11, 2021
With the #Bitcoin supply on exchanges going down again after an increase during May-July it seems like a good time to dust of my @BitcoinMagazine article from May 11 where I dive deeper into the $BTC supply dynamics on exchanges and /1
bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/is-the…
the rather exceptional decline in $BTC reserves held on exchanges during this cycle. While it was already exceptional as of the time of the writing of the article, the continuation of the decline after a period of inflows underlines the difference of this cycle to the previous /2
ones. Whether we look at @glassnode data or @cryptoquant_com, $BTC supply on exchanges has already hit new lows this year or is close to this years low (driven by the difference in reported exchanges). But most importantly, the pattern in both is similar. /3
Read 6 tweets

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