Many suggest "hybrid immunity" (hx of infection + vax) is superior to immunity from infection alone, but we now have 2 large studies not detecting additional benefit of vax after infection for prevention of hospitalization.
This best was just published 👇:
acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M2…
This Israeli study is very large & well done bc of their case-control design which matched vax'ed & controls for age, sex, socioec status status, comorbidities & exposure period. They found 1 dose of vax atfter infection offers no detectable additional benefit vs hospitalization
The second from MMWR is here finding the hospitalization rate among previously infected plus vaccinated was not lower than those who were previously infected but unvaccinated.
Figure on the right from @PeterAttiaMD

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…
So what does this mean? *Most* people who've been infected have, at least thus far, a robust immune response that protects them from severe disease & adding mRNA vax may boost their antibodies/postpone infection but won't appreciably lower their already low risk of severe disease
We don't have the research to back this yet, but it may be we end up leaning children and young adults especially will not benefit from vax on top of infection based immunity against severe disease but older, more frail adults or certain very high risk *will* benefit.
Based on these 2 studies above, I just think we need to be clearer that most adults will not gain any additional benefit from the vax against severe disease (& only transient against infection) after they have recovered from infection.
So mandating vax after recovery from infection in *most adults* really does not make sense from the standpoint of preventing severe disease or hospitalization either. And we have covered previously here that the benefit against infection & transmission is fleeting

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More from @TracyBethHoeg

Jan 28
🇩🇰Data from Denmark, still showing 0 correlation of vax or booster w/covid infection
🟠unvaccinated
🔵fully vaccinated
🟢3 doses
The idea vax mandates prevent transmission needs to be dropped, esp considering the study in next tweet
TY @SSI_dk @KT_Baek
covid19danmark.dk/#gennembrudsin…
This study, also from Denmark, found very similar secondary attack rates w/omicron after 0, 2 or 3 doses of vax, meaning once people are infected, the vax does not effectively prevent them from spreading to others in their household

See blue circles

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
With this in mind, check out this discussion w/@VPrasadMDMPH & @ID_ethics about why mandating COVID-19 vaccination in children now is non-sensical, unethical and may lead to erosion of trust in public health and increase overall vaccine hesitancy
Read 4 tweets
Jan 25
“We need to make sure schools are safe” said @DrPanMD about mandating vax for all school kids in California
For a vax that doesn't prevent transmission & has yet-to-be-fully-defined side effects, requiring it for kids to get an education is non-sensical🧵
latimes.com/california/sto…
2. Those already infected gain no clear additional protection against severe disease from vaccination
Read 5 tweets
Jan 22
🇩🇰New important Danish data
-HIGHER rates of infection among vaccinated 5-11 yos, even when adjusting for testing rate
-Boosters not associated w/lower infection rates
🟠unvaccinated
🔵2 doses
🟢booster
Data on severe disease & thoughts on mandates 👇
covid19danmark.dk/#gennembrudsin…
Here are COVID ICU (left) & hosp (right) admissions by vax category & age. Boosters have no clear association w/severe disease <age 40-50. This is consistent w/ Israeli data published in NEJM which found no significant correlation w/severe disease <age 40 nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
Given the above, it's hard to argue college booster mandates are based in science. And, given even small risk of severe adverse events, are unethical. So this explanation 👇 sadly makes more sense than anything based in good public health or compassion
Read 7 tweets
Jan 14
So, is myocarditis after vax more common than after covid in 12-17 yo boys?
Let's look at the two studies they are discussing
I would tend to agree w/ @joerogan the better-designed study is the one from Oxford showing myo after vax more than after covid in males <40
Here's why🧵
The oxford study is a re-analysis of a paper published in @Nature (link in tweet below) where they had 38 million people from the UK over 8 months who they knew the vax/myo diagnosis/covid + status. Reanalysis found myo>after vax than covid in males 16-39
The 2nd study identified only *6* cases of post-covid myo over *a year* in males 12-17 in a hospital system w/a cachement of 60 million people. They provided an inappropriately low estimate of # infected giving inappropriately high rate of post-covid myo medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Read 6 tweets
Jan 11
Now, using new 0.48 hazard ratio for hosp w/omicron, we get
1/5000 risk of covid hosp requiring treatment for 12-17 yo w/o comorbidities pre vax
Hong Kong & Kaiser data 1/2700 risk of post dose 2 vax myo boys 12-17
If vax doesn't stop transmission, how is this ethical to mandate?
Considering the above, I wonder why we are not asking "should all teen boys get vaxed" with mRNA vaccines? For example, what about children who have already been infected? Agree w/@walidgellad "benefits vary patient by patient"
theatlantic.com/health/archive…
Here are the Kaiser data on omicon's decreased severity:
Read 6 tweets
Jan 5
🇩🇰Updated data from Denmark showing highest rates of infection in those who have received *boosters* who are >40 yo
🟢booster
🔵2 doses
🔴previously infected
🟠unvaccinated
But see adjustment for test # s below
Denmark now w/around 85% omicron
@SSI_dk (covid19danmark.dk/#gennembrudsin…)
The appearance of negative vax efficacy against infection has been puzzling, especially when separating out prev infected, but @KT_Baek seems to be onto something⬇️ when he adjusts for # of tests taken; this gives v similar infection rates in all 4 groups

Though 2 & 3 doses of vax not effectively preventing infection, 2 doses evidently protecting against severe disease & death in adults & 3 doses seem to offer extra protection in those >70
👇 hospitalization & death rates/100,000 by vax status
🟢booster
🔵2 doses
🟠unvaccinated indlæggelser: hospitalizations
Read 5 tweets

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