Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Feb 20 9 tweets 4 min read
‘’Asked whether a Russian invasion is still thought to be imminent, Mr Johnson said: "I'm afraid that that is what the evidence points to, there's no burnishing it. "The fact is that all the signs are that the plan has already in some senses begun."…’ bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…
‘"I'm afraid to say that the plan we are seeing is for something that could be really the biggest war in Europe since 1945 just in terms of sheer scale," the prime minister said.’ bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…
‘Intelligence suggests Russia intends to launch an invasion that will encircle Ukrainian capital Kyiv, Mr Johnson said.
"People need to understand the sheer cost in human life that could entail," he said.’ bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…
This is what I reported yesterday. “Western security officials say that they have had insight into Mr Putin’s war plans for months, and that the Kremlin's aim is to install a pro-Russian dictatorship in Kyiv … backed with an occupation force if necessary” economist.com/europe/2022/02…
“Russian units in western Russia and Crimea are expected to mount a “double envelopment”, or pincer movement, against Ukrainian troops around Donbas…The main thrust, officials say, will probably be directed at Kyiv” economist.com/europe/2022/02…
‘“Last night four senior figures in govt confirmed they expected a..Russian assault to begin any day, possibly culminating in a “lightning war” against Kyiv. One said “Our intelligence is consistent w the Americans’. Putin has a plan and it is under way.”’ thetimes.co.uk/article/putin-…
“US intelligence that provided Biden with the confidence to make the assertion came from an order given to Russian subordinates to proceed with a full-scale attack, according to several people familiar with the matter, who spoke on condition of anonymity” washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
“Some European allies questioned the US’ conviction that the Kremlin will launch hostilities, saying they have not seen direct evidence suggesting Putin has committed…officials said they have been told little about the sources and methods the US used” washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
“It’s always the raw material that they [the US] do not share,” said one senior NATO diplomat who has had extensive conversations with top American policymakers in Brussels. washingtonpost.com/national-secur…

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More from @shashj

Feb 20
Some lofty language from the Elysee. “Intense diplomatic work will be undertaken "in order to achieve, if the conditions are met, a meeting at the highest level to define a new order of peace and security in Europe," adds the French Presidency” lemonde.fr/international/…
The original: ‘Un travail diplomatique intense va être engagé « afin d’aboutir, si les conditions sont remplies, à une rencontre au plus haut niveau en vue de définir un nouvel ordre de paix et de sécurité en Europe », ajoute la présidence française’ lemonde.fr/international/…
Full context: "this diplomatic work should make it possible to progress on basis of the latest exchanges [with] all the stakeholders (Europeans, allies, Russians & Ukrainians) in order to achieve, if conditions are met, a meeting at the highest level..."
elysee.fr/emmanuel-macro… Image
Read 6 tweets
Feb 18
"Four people familiar with U.S. intelligence said that Russia has drafted lists of Ukrainian political figures and other prominent individuals to be targeted for either arrest or assassination in the event of a Russian assault on Ukraine."
"A fifth person, a U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that the United States has been downgrading its intelligence classification regarding threats to specific groups within Ukraine to share this information with Ukrainian...officials" foreignpolicy.com/2022/02/18/rus…
"The Biden admin. has also been startled by how formalized the lists are, which appear to target anyone who could challenge the Russian agenda. Five Eyes ... partners have also tracked Russian intelligence agencies, such as the FSB and GRU, building up target and kill lists"
Read 4 tweets
Feb 17
Russia to US: "In the absence of the readiness of the American side to agree on firm, legally binding guarantees … by the US and its allies, Russia will be forced to respond, including through the implementation of military-technical measures." kommersant.ru/doc/5218858
Russia: “In 2014, a coup d'état took place in Kiev, the initiators of which, with the support of the United States and its allies, set a course to create a nationalist state that infringes on the rights of the Russian and Russian-speaking population” kommersant.ru/doc/5218858?fr…
For those who think this is just about future Nato membership, good luck making sense of these new demands. Russia to US: “To de-escalate the situation around Ukraine, it is fundamentally important to take the following steps”. kommersant.ru/doc/5218858?fr…
Read 4 tweets
Feb 15
Incredibly detailed report on Ukraine by RUSI's @Jack_Watling and Nick Reynolds based on what looks like extensive interviews with Ukrainian military and intelligence officers over recent weeks
static.rusi.org/special-report…
"Meeting with Ukrainian security officials there is a widespread acknowledgement that many of their colleagues – even in some quite senior positions – are working for or sympathetic to Russia." static.rusi.org/special-report…
"there is believed to be around two companies of Russian covert special forces operating in Kyiv. For the Ukrainian security forces there is a significant risk at protests that Russian agent provocateurs ... will initiate acts of violence" static.rusi.org/special-report…
Read 4 tweets
Feb 12
“American officials said it was still unclear whether Mr. Putin had made a decision to invade. U.S. officials have picked up intelligence that Russia is considering Wednesday as the possible date for the start of military action” nytimes.com/2022/02/11/wor…
“Those officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive information, acknowledged the possibility that the mention of a particular date could be part of a Russian disinformation effort.” nytimes.com/2022/02/11/wor…
Contra Sullivan, WSJ also says Biden told allies a decision made. “In a call with European leaders on Friday, Mr Biden said that the US now believes Mr Putin has made a decision to go ahead…& named specific dates when Washington believed it might happen” wsj.com/articles/senio…
Read 4 tweets
Feb 8
“Dans l’avion qui l’emmenait à Moscou, le président avait confié à quelques journalistes que l’idée d’une «finlandisation» de l’Ukraine faisait partie, entre autres sujets, des dossiers posés sur la table” lefigaro.fr/international/…
Macron: «Vladimir Poutine veut un changement profond de la politique de l’OTAN. Il faut trouver une solution pour que cet espace de sécurité qu’est l’OTAN cohabite avec la Russie. Un élément d’adéquation, c’est la non-adhésion de l’Ukraine à l’OTAN» lefigaro.fr/international/…
English: Macron "told some journalists that the idea of a "Finlandisation" of Ukraine was one of the issues on the table..."We have to find a solution so that this security space that is NATO coexists with Russia. One element of adequacy is Ukraine's non-membership of NATO"...'
Read 6 tweets

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