Thread by @Biotech2k1

1/ Bargain Hunting in #TPD:

These are the companies that rank in my top picks for people to use as a jumping off point to do their own research.

2/ My first pick here will be $ARVN, but not because I like their science the most. I am actually not that thrilled with their ER and AR program. I picked them as they are the most established with data and have a big partner.

3/ They made a big partnership for their ER program. They now have $1.6 billion cash. That is nearly half of their $3.6 billion market cap. That makes them really cheap while we wait for some of the bigger programs like KRAS and Tau.

4/ What I dislike about $ARVN is they are targeting already very validated targets. That means far more competition. I prefer companies that are innovating new science.

5/ That is why $KYMR is my favorite company in this space with IRAK4, STAT3, and MDM2. They are not only pioneering new science with TPD they are also pioneering new innovative targets.

6/ $KYMR has one big partner for their IRAK4 programs. This target could be huge between inflammation and oncology if it works out well. They have a long of very big targets.

7/ They are still very high risk as they are still in phase 1. They have some exciting biomarker data for knocking down IRAK4. Now they have to prove IRAK4 does anything for the disease they are targeting.

8/ The company trades at just under $2 billion market cap with over $600 million cash of Q3. That is really cheap for the potential this company has to offer.

9/ My 3rd pick here is also my most speculative. I think $GLUE has some huge targets. They are also pioneering some very innovative targets using molecular glues.

10/ There is a lot of fear in this stock as their first target is MYC which has been very toxic for companies in the past. This is a unique approach and a differentiated target to suppress over active Myc without hitting Myc directly.

11/ I really find their NEK7 program to very exciting. Its a huge potential in inflammation by targeting the Inflammasome. This company is very cheap as everyone has already written them off before they have any data.

12/ That makes them a great spec because it will only take one of these program to succeed for this company to be worth 10x what its worth today. At $632 million market cap, more then half the market cap is now cash.

13/ My last pick in this space is $CCCC. They are suing TPD to take on some already very validated targets in oncology. They are trying to do it with better safety and potentially better efficacy.

14/ Their first target goes right after Revlimid which is about to go generic. Unless they can prove their drug is far superior to Revlimid, it will probably never amount to anything. That is the big risk of C4.

15/ Their other program all target very popular and validated drug targets like BRAF, EFGR and RET. They do have the potential of making new TPD drugs that have same efficacy with lower toxicity. This is a very high risk play.

16/ Unless they can prove they can take on these already popular targets and do it in a very differentiated way, they will be a bust. They trade at $1 billion market cap with over $350 million cash.