Putin just keeps digging himself a deeper hole. His murder of Magnitsky led to sanctions that cost his oligarchs money. So he invaded Crimea to steal its resources. But that led to more sanctions. So he installed Trump, but that backfired. Now Putin is eyeing mainland Ukraine.
Putin's arrogance with Magnitsky cost his oligarchs billions, and ever since then he's been making increasingly high risk moves to try to make up for it. But his each new move has only created more of a mess for him.
Putin has spent the past eight years not invading the rest of Ukraine, which tells you that he's not confident he can pull it off, and that he's afraid it'll cost him everything if it doesn't work. To finally try it now, he'd have to be desperate.
If Putin does go through with this, it'll suggest that he now thinks he HAS to try it, for fear his oligarchs will get restless with his ongoing failures and oust him.
It's possible Putin is building up like this, without intending to do anything, in the hope the West will give him something else in return for not invading. Then he can show the oligarchs that his years-long slump is over and one of his plans actually got him somewhere.
The question is what Putin will do if he can't get any concessions. Will he go ahead and invade out of desperation? Will be withdraw and just pretend he got concessions? Does he even know what his Plan B is?
Putin's (supposed) willingness tonight to hold an emergency summit with Biden, suggests that Putin is indeed fishing for concessions. The West might have to give him something minor, for fear he might truly be desperate enough to invade if he doesn't get anything.
But when your opponent blinks like Putin just did, you don't give away the store. You offer something minor, superficial but face-saving, take it or leave it. Biden knows this. He's exactly the right person to be in that room with Putin right now.
The real danger is that even if Putin has no intention of going to war, with this kind of military brinksmanship and troop buildup, bad things can just happen. Bomb gets dropped by mistake or whatever, then suddenly a war breaks out that neither side actually wanted.
As we wait to see how this plays out, let's not hand Putin leverage by assuming he's going to invade "no matter what." It would be a huge risk for him. He's in over his head. Biden is savvy enough to know how/ whether to call Putin's bluff. Thank God Biden is President right now.
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