Josh Wolfe Profile picture
Feb 21 10 tweets 3 min read
1/ There is lots of news (serious or silly) competing for👀

A thing NOT front page news YET

is the arming of India 🇮🇳 by the US 🇺🇸
and of Pakistan 🇵🇰 by China 🇨🇳

ps India’s growing tension with its Muslims (200million—world’s 3rd largest muslim pop. + largest minority pop.)
2/ Adding to the tensions is WATER🚰 💦 🚽

In the 90s I equated “Free Tibet” with cool music 🎶(Beastie Boys, Tribe Called Quest, Red Hot Chili Peppers, Bjork, De La Soul, Rage Against the Machine)—and a principled protest for religious freedom + the peaceful poise of Dalai Lama
3/ I was not at ALL thinking—while bands commodified my dissent + naive teenage angst—about the geopolitical long game of China securing Tibet’s water.

Control the WATER—control the WORLD

HALF (50%!) of the world’s population depends on RIVERS flowing from Tibetan Plateau…
4/ There’s over 1000 LAKES on Tibetan Plateau––the Yangtze (Chang Jiang) River (the 3rd longest after the Nile + Amazon) + Yellow River serve over 600M million people in China

Half of the water goes to––INDIA

But China’s infrastructure, dams, hydropower + pollution threaten it
5/ PAKISTAN, Bangladesh, Uzbekistan all have over 90% dependency on external water sources—making them extremely vulnerable.

CHINA has all the leverage over PAKISTAN…
6/ Regions where water is SCARCE are regions
where risk of China leverage + control is ABUNDANT
7/ China + India have dozens of territorial disputes—both are nuclear nations… aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/25…
8/ CHINA uses PAKISTAN to contain INDIA.

I have previously shared China’s control of Pakistan (its resources and its infrastructure) from the north (Xinjiang) thru the south to Gwadar…
9/ The complex set of tensions across

GEOLOGICAL, GEOPOLITICAL, POLITICAL, RELIGIOUS

with proxy nations (US x China) battling over water, Hindu vs Islam, pollution, climate/water refugees fleeing dry + diverted watersheds

makes the region VERY VOLATILE and worthy of attention
10/
More important than KANYE + KIM
More important than escaping earth to go to MARS
More important than cancelling controversial speakers

is WATER

answer = NUCLEAR + DESAL

PS single-hulled tankers have been phased out (for oil)
but we may YET see WATER TANKERS in hi demand!

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More from @wolfejosh

Feb 20
1/ Find directional arrows of PROGRESS (arrows of inevitability) they don’t point to the company or the founder or the specific tech—but they never fail.

The more poetic the insight, the more likely it is to be true and the explanation harder to vary.

CONSIDER: energy
2/
The more we move into the FUTURE
the further we mine the PAST

When humankind first learned to release ENERGY to do WORK it was using recent vegetation fueling self or animals

(*that vegetation was weeks or months or years old)…
3/ Next humankind learned to create fire and release ENERGY to do WORK by burning what the sun had stored in vegetation (wood + oils)

(*that was years or decades old)…
Read 8 tweets
Feb 19
1/ Believe there’s growing RISK that perception of tight labor market—(with 4.5 million giving notice in November)—& rising incremental wages to attract workers back

may be due to WFH complacency combined w/rising retail stock/crypto confidence + flood of options in new startups
2/ The non-obviosu RISK is many may have been heavily margined & lured into stock trading + crypto accounts and feeling flush + confident yet were low-income and/or recent grads…
3/ Combined with a flood of growth capital into a flood of new startups with a flood of demand for talent that led to a flood of rising wages + stock packages…
Read 6 tweets
Feb 19
1/ LARRY BOCK—
Five and a half years ago longtime Lux partner, mentor, friend, father, husband, cutting-edge biotech investor, company founder––and Brooklyn-born(!) merry prankster passed….medium.com/@lux_capital/a…
2/ Larry’s email was “BioBock” (his dad’s nickname as an “OG” stockbroker for biotech in the 70s + 80s)…

Larry (legally blind w/deteriorating eye condition, Stargardts) would join Genentech as one of the first 50 employees—before launching 17 co’s from scratch + taking 14 IPO—
3/ One of my FAVE stories is how Larry had hoped to get into Princeton, Harvard, Yale—but instead was steered towards Bowdoin

He had a friend who used to prank him….This friend once had his sister pretend she was another girl Larry had a crush on— asked him out to the prom….
Read 18 tweets
Feb 18
1/ Releasing year-end redacted Lux quarterly letter to LPs

Our theme is: the power of ‘AND’

-raising fortress balance sheet cash + husbanding it wisely
-a coming wave of consolidation + M&A
-the macro, margin debt + market structure
-Magritte’s “Perspicacity”
-and much more…
2/ We are transitioning from CONJUNCTION…
to a period of DISJUNCTION

From “and” as neutral combination…
to “and yet” as expression of contrast

Comfort and complacency create conditions
for risk, instability + vulnerability

To FORESEE a risk is to help PREVENT its occurence
3/ We told Lux cos in 2021:

expect good AND bad market conditions AND be so well-capitalized to be unfettered by fear AND prepared to pounce

~90% of our holdings are funded into 2023

We made 136 distinct investments AND our co’s raised over $12.6B with 21 each raising >$100M
Read 11 tweets
Feb 14
SOME NEWS! 📰🗞️

1/ We’re PSYCHED to announce that @graceisford has joined Lux Capital as a Principal based in our NYC 🗽office––where she will be investing at the nexus of web3, data infrastructure, and AI/ML...🧵
2/ Even as we continue to plunge ever deeper into ATOMS + BITS

it’s also clear that we can’t ignore the institutions that power our society––which face their own complex challenges...
3/ Our financial system is sclerotic + undemocratic, built on pulped trees🌳 rather than code👩‍💻 + smart contracts.

Our health system 🏥remains mired in antiquated systems...
Read 7 tweets
Jan 20
1/ There are a few ‘megamacro’ trends that really matter

-Hard power (aerospace + defense *see below*) v China
-Soft power (US culture + tools for ‘Tech of Science’) v China
-Money + “low entropy” currency (USD x Fed x crypto)
-Africa, MENA, SE Asia EM
spacenews.com/chinese-satell…
2/ Climate matters alot—though climate does not have the human-generated conflict of interests

(unless world shames China for coal; and is easily solved with doubling world’s nuclear power—only cost is the loss of “environmentalists” egos + pride from their orthodoxy)

But more—
3/ More important than climate🤭—a 100yr problem that will be solved in next 50yrs (not by swapping light bulbs or neg. growth but via nuclear + electrification)

—Is cancer, heart disease, alzheimers, infectious disease (globally)= 5 + 10yr problems needing solutions now
Read 6 tweets

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