1/ There is lots of news (serious or silly) competing for👀
A thing NOT front page news YET
is the arming of India 🇮🇳 by the US 🇺🇸
and of Pakistan 🇵🇰 by China 🇨🇳
ps India’s growing tension with its Muslims (200million—world’s 3rd largest muslim pop. + largest minority pop.)
2/ Adding to the tensions is WATER🚰 💦 🚽
In the 90s I equated “Free Tibet” with cool music 🎶(Beastie Boys, Tribe Called Quest, Red Hot Chili Peppers, Bjork, De La Soul, Rage Against the Machine)—and a principled protest for religious freedom + the peaceful poise of Dalai Lama
3/ I was not at ALL thinking—while bands commodified my dissent + naive teenage angst—about the geopolitical long game of China securing Tibet’s water.
Control the WATER—control the WORLD
HALF (50%!) of the world’s population depends on RIVERS flowing from Tibetan Plateau…
4/ There’s over 1000 LAKES on Tibetan Plateau––the Yangtze (Chang Jiang) River (the 3rd longest after the Nile + Amazon) + Yellow River serve over 600M million people in China
Half of the water goes to––INDIA
But China’s infrastructure, dams, hydropower + pollution threaten it
5/ PAKISTAN, Bangladesh, Uzbekistan all have over 90% dependency on external water sources—making them extremely vulnerable.
CHINA has all the leverage over PAKISTAN…
6/ Regions where water is SCARCE are regions
where risk of China leverage + control is ABUNDANT
1/ Find directional arrows of PROGRESS (arrows of inevitability) they don’t point to the company or the founder or the specific tech—but they never fail.
The more poetic the insight, the more likely it is to be true and the explanation harder to vary.
CONSIDER: energy
2/
The more we move into the FUTURE
the further we mine the PAST
When humankind first learned to release ENERGY to do WORK it was using recent vegetation fueling self or animals
(*that vegetation was weeks or months or years old)…
3/ Next humankind learned to create fire and release ENERGY to do WORK by burning what the sun had stored in vegetation (wood + oils)
1/ Believe there’s growing RISK that perception of tight labor market—(with 4.5 million giving notice in November)—& rising incremental wages to attract workers back
may be due to WFH complacency combined w/rising retail stock/crypto confidence + flood of options in new startups
2/ The non-obviosu RISK is many may have been heavily margined & lured into stock trading + crypto accounts and feeling flush + confident yet were low-income and/or recent grads…
3/ Combined with a flood of growth capital into a flood of new startups with a flood of demand for talent that led to a flood of rising wages + stock packages…
1/ LARRY BOCK—
Five and a half years ago longtime Lux partner, mentor, friend, father, husband, cutting-edge biotech investor, company founder––and Brooklyn-born(!) merry prankster passed….medium.com/@lux_capital/a…
2/ Larry’s email was “BioBock” (his dad’s nickname as an “OG” stockbroker for biotech in the 70s + 80s)…
Larry (legally blind w/deteriorating eye condition, Stargardts) would join Genentech as one of the first 50 employees—before launching 17 co’s from scratch + taking 14 IPO—
3/ One of my FAVE stories is how Larry had hoped to get into Princeton, Harvard, Yale—but instead was steered towards Bowdoin
He had a friend who used to prank him….This friend once had his sister pretend she was another girl Larry had a crush on— asked him out to the prom….
1/ We’re PSYCHED to announce that @graceisford has joined Lux Capital as a Principal based in our NYC 🗽office––where she will be investing at the nexus of web3, data infrastructure, and AI/ML...🧵
2/ Even as we continue to plunge ever deeper into ATOMS + BITS
it’s also clear that we can’t ignore the institutions that power our society––which face their own complex challenges...
3/ Our financial system is sclerotic + undemocratic, built on pulped trees🌳 rather than code👩💻 + smart contracts.
Our health system 🏥remains mired in antiquated systems...
1/ There are a few ‘megamacro’ trends that really matter
-Hard power (aerospace + defense *see below*) v China
-Soft power (US culture + tools for ‘Tech of Science’) v China
-Money + “low entropy” currency (USD x Fed x crypto)
-Africa, MENA, SE Asia EM spacenews.com/chinese-satell…
2/ Climate matters alot—though climate does not have the human-generated conflict of interests
(unless world shames China for coal; and is easily solved with doubling world’s nuclear power—only cost is the loss of “environmentalists” egos + pride from their orthodoxy)
But more—
3/ More important than climate🤭—a 100yr problem that will be solved in next 50yrs (not by swapping light bulbs or neg. growth but via nuclear + electrification)