Putin will recognize DPR/LPR as independent states.Whole territory of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts should belong to these puppet “states”. It means:1)RU will attack UA-controlled part of Donbas to “liberate”it; 2)RU withdraw from Minsk accords; 3)RU “legitimizes” it’s army there🧵
RU army can be used in 2 scenarios than: 1)attack for occupation of new areas in UA-controlled Donbas; 2) as peace building mission together with RU-controlled military union CSTO. 2d scenario can be both separately, or coming after offensive operation
Putin still can “give some time to the West” before his decision, as Lavrov mentioned. Though, 1-3 days change nothing in terms of recognition.Meeting with Biden and EU re new security architecture still can happen.West will try to convince RU not to go further.
Putin to Scholz and Macron: I am preparing for recognition of L/DPR. Ukraine is highly likely to announce wartime regime. Council on National Security was gathered urgently
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