Putin has already ordered his Ministry for defense to guarantee peace in so-called “republics” with Russian Army. Recognized occupation with ever high chances for full-fledged offensive operation at least towards UA-controlled Donbas Image
In fact, Russia openly invades Ukraine's Donbas with its troops even before RU signs treaties with so called "L/DPR" about mutual and defense support to them.
Reaction from the West is absolutely inadequate. Sanctions from US are ridiculous (any from killing package), from EU will be even softer. RU “peacekeepers”, openly occupying Donbas, is not sufficient reason to introduce serious sanctions. Weak, treacherous position of the West.
@trussliz has pointed, that UK and EU will launch swift sanctions. We’ll see.
What UA has to do now? 1)Publicly demand strongest sanctions from the West. It’s recognized invasion. 2) Use UN and all other IOs as tools both to seek for any guarantees, and appeal to stop RU;3) Receive as much weapons as possible, including offensive and “safe sky”.

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More from @Mariia_Zolkina

Feb 23
On 22.02 RU used reactive system of volley fire “Grad” to shell residential areas in Schastya,Muratove, Novotoshkivka and oth.(Luhansk obl.). People sat in shelters. Local authorities consider evacuation if shelling aren’t stopped. Why LPR hit Schastya? ⬇️in a 🧵 ImageImageImage
Schastya is situated exactly on a division line. It is needed for RU to proceed further on UA-controlled part of Luhansk region. Once RU crosses the river, it simply cuts from external world Stanytsya Luhanska district with population not less than 37 000 people.
Without capture of Schastya Russia won’t be able to move on the North part of oblast. RU idea seems to be: to burn town/villages with valley fire and artillery, make people escape/be evacuated, continue just with UA militaries, whose defense position are rather strong there.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 22
Schastya is again under heaviest artillery shelling. Biggest thermoelectric power station was shelled, damaged. At least 3 transformers are burning. Residential areas are also shelled. More photos in comments. #ukraine #RussiaInvadedUkraine
Read 6 tweets
Feb 21
Putin will recognize DPR/LPR as independent states.Whole territory of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts should belong to these puppet “states”. It means:1)RU will attack UA-controlled part of Donbas to “liberate”it; 2)RU withdraw from Minsk accords; 3)RU “legitimizes” it’s army there🧵
RU army can be used in 2 scenarios than: 1)attack for occupation of new areas in UA-controlled Donbas; 2) as peace building mission together with RU-controlled military union CSTO. 2d scenario can be both separately, or coming after offensive operation
Putin still can “give some time to the West” before his decision, as Lavrov mentioned. Though, 1-3 days change nothing in terms of recognition.Meeting with Biden and EU re new security architecture still can happen.West will try to convince RU not to go further.
Read 4 tweets

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