🧵on the “proposal” of “exchange of the territories for @NATO membership” for #Ukraine. All the peculiarities, risks and manipulations hidden by “good will” are explained here➡️1/ There is no news here. At least for those involved in expert and political discussions. This is reincarnation of so called Korean scenario, which was heavily rejected last year. But related options are still discussed behind closed doors. Now this became partially public 2/

Annulled license of 🇷🇺 “Rain”TV channel in Latvia shows deep gap btw how RU “liberal” opposition see its role and consequences of its actions, on the one hand, and understating of these things on the side of European states, namely Baltic states, on the other hand. Short 🧵 Announced reasons for the license revocation were: marking Crimea as part of #Russia on the map when broadcasting; saying “our army” about RU forces, support to RU soldiers expressed by already fired presenter. All this was made by mistake, as TVchannel said.2/

Why Ukrainians consider “dialogues” with so called liberal #Russian opposition as irrelevant and inappropriate at the moment? This is 🧵 with explanation and arguments. #RussiaUkraineWar 1) 🇷🇺 opposition represents itself as anti-Putin, but they push lots of RU official messages and support imperialistic RU agenda. Most DO NOT say that the entire 🇺🇦territory must be returned to #Ukraine. More or less smarter they justify occupation of at least Crimea and Donbas

🧵Some important details on #KhersonRetreat of #Russia:
1) Russia has been withdrawing its better, regular army units for some time already. Instead, 🇷🇺was gathering newly drafted men there. As of now, they stay there. We’ll see if Russia withdraws them or leave for captivity 1/ 2) Militarily, #Russia had no choice, but retreat. Bridges were destroyed, no logistic chains. But politically it’s even more serious defeat of #Russia, than military one. It was the only one regional centre, occupied after 24.02.22. 2/

I’ll tell you a story from my hometown in 2014-2015. #Russia failed to seize Stanytsya Luhanska then, and shelled electric grids everyday. Electricity disappeared, repair servicemen fixed it under shellings and next day everything was repeated. 1/ Surgeons were operating in local hospitals with light from diesel generators. Some of them lived in a hospital month in a row cause they mobile signal disappeared constantly and if doctor had gone home he would hardly have been reachable 2/

Demilitarization of 🇷🇺army goes on. Two new attacks on 🇷🇺 air basis and arms depots, namely in Dzhankoy and near #Symferopol, capital of 🇺🇦Autonomous Republic of #Crimea, occupied by #Russia since 2014. Some thoughts on significance of these attacks and recents blasts in Crimea🧵 1)Crimea doesn’t differ from military targets in occupied parts of Kherson, Zaporizhzhya or Donbas. It’s NOT Russian territory, just another occupied part of 🇺🇦. RU is shocked (both Kremlin and citizens), that Crimea isn’t untouchable for UA. 2/

🧵I am waiting for the publication of the text of the "grain" agreement tomorrow.
❗️But it is already clear today: we have not received real mechanisms to guarantee the safety of Ukrainian ports. Such mechanisms could at least be: 1/ - the presence of foreign (in this case – Turkish) warships. Russia would hardly dare to attack our ports in this situation. Now it looks like Turkish ships will most likely be either at the entrance/exit of these sea corridors, or if near Ukrainian ports, then not stationary. 2/

⚡️#Sievierodonetsk doesn’t exist anymore. 🇺🇦soldiers started leaving the city in organized manner. It’s not possible to hide and fight effectively there.121 days of incredible and professional defense despite quantity superiority of the enemy. What is important here?1/ 1) Army of #Russia can proceed only by complete destruction of the areas. Tactics is simple as “scorched land”. They couldn’t win in terms of tactics and planning. That is why less numerous units were standing firmly against so called “2d army” for more than 4 months. 2/

🧵#100daysofwar. They said, #Ukraine would fall in max.3 days, but we surprised the whole world. Maneuvering defense, sophisticated tactics, top-level military skills. Huge motivation and spirit in the army and society. In this 🧵 some major conclusions so far 1/ Military summing up:
1A)#Russia failed in majority of attacks: #Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Odesa, Mykolayiv.
1B) RU “success” in major part of #Luhansk region isn’t due to RU offensive, but rather bcs of tactical step back of #UAarmy. 2/

Some more thoughts on meaning of RU oil embargo: 1) economic calculations are not the main issue. It is political breakage of “business as usual” with #Russia. The most sensitive area starts being covered by sanctions. Strategic turn from energy dependence is being started. 1/ 2) “Steel” schemes appeared to be flexible. #EU changes its politics, business in areas, which were untouchable before. 3) RU isn’t a reliable partner anymore. The sooner this dependence from RU ends, the safer for the EU. This approach slowly, but irreversibly shapes reality 2/

This THREAD is for those, who doesn’t know precisely, how myth about “separatism” in #Donbas appeared in 2014. It was invasion of #Russia and occupation with only difference from now – RU troops were without insignia. Here are some numbers on public opinion. #StopRussiaNOW 1/ March 2014. #Russia has already captured administrative buildings in #Luhansk and Donetsk and organized “protests” around them. They already had weapons and first killing of UA activists happened. Meanwhile Ukrainians continued to go out and protest. 2/

🧵#Russia is continuing attack using no sophisticated tactics: just burn everything out using its domination in artillery and air bombardment. Goal is clear: push stronger to prevent some Western states from sending heavy weapons to 🇺🇦 and make them think about negotiations. ⬇️ Now its a turning point for several states: large weapons supply will make UA definitely win. We lack only offensive weapons in needed quantities. Some on the West still have to make final decision: send it and defeat #Russia completely, or not send and use half-measures 2/

Regiment #Azov continues to be absurdly accused of being “neo-nazi/extremists/far-right”. Working with media as an expert I state: journalists in many cases do not dig deep, don’t understand context and use myths about Azov without attempt of fact checking. Here is a 🧵 Where are media often wrong? 1.Biletsky isn’t a leader of Azov. He neither commands it, nor influences commanders. He has no formal relation to regiment, which is part of National Guard of UA. He is leader of party “National corpus”, but commanded Azov only several months in 2014

🧵We should stop weapons supply to #Ukraine, cause the more weapons, the longer war and the more casualties! Risky and manipulative argument, used by loyal to #Russia experts and politicians to stop soppier of UA. Here are several counter arguments to that. 1/ Military counter argument. UA army is efficient in repelling massive offensive. RU had to leave Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy and almost all Kharkiv regions. 4 weeks of attacks in Luhansk obl. didn’t bring RU control over main cities, besides of Kreminna. RU occupied there rural areas

THREAD with quotations of the story about attempts to leave Mariupol. People have to pass dozens of #Russian check-points and filtration camp. For lot of civilians it is road of death. Link to original story will be at the end of THREAD. “The camp is not a settlement, it's just a column of cars. There were 500 cars in line in front of us, thousands more behind us. Getting out of cars, looking for food, water, going to the toilet was forbidden. Soldiers with weapons went everywhere, threatened, checked” 2/

THREAD. Day 52d since #RussiaInvadedUkraine. How does situation look on the ground? Below find overview on 1)military situation. 2)developments in temporary occupied areas 3) negotiations 4)what to expect ⬇️1/ 1)Military situation. #Russia seriously changed its tactics. After failure of RU land operation in the North (#Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv) RU is concentrating its efforts in fixing its presence in the South, occupation of whole #Donbas and ensuring land corridor btw Russia and Crimea 2/

THREAD on What’s next between #Russia and West? This is crucial Q-n, directly influencing Western reaction of RU aggression. Declaration, that RU is commenting #WarCrimes doesn’t necessarily mean readiness of the West to reshape and rebuild its relations with RF 1/ Scenario 1. West wants to preserve relations as such, continue business with RU while accusing it for aggression and authoritarianism. It means support to “peace deal” btw #Ukraine and #Russia regardless, whether it will bring strategic security either for UA, or for Europe 2/

🧵RU war crimes, disclosed in towns around Kyiv, is a #genocide of Ukrainians. Accord. to UN “Genocide Convention” (1951), genocide is any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such: 1/ (a)Killing members of the group; (b) Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group; (c) Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part; 2/

1/ Most impressive from intercepted phone calls btw RU militaries and their wifes/moms: 1) women are excited by marauding catch, directly say to take as much as possible; 2) women hate Ukrainians, perceive them as subhumans and urge to kill and destroy. No compassion 2/ 3)Once RU soldiers are captured and call to ask relatives to make it public, to address authorities to release them, the is pure silence in response. Moms/wifes say “What can I do?”. This is the most impressive. Not to try to save your child, really?!

Refusal from NATO will be strategic mistake for #Ukraine️. They say that @NATO doesn’t want UA as a member. On the contrary:1) this 🇩🇪 or 🇫🇷 position won’t change without pressure from UA. By refusing we strengthen idea, that RU is to decide about UA-NATO relations 🧵1/ 2/Such refusal can’t be temporary and tactical. No one will treat UA seriously, if it decides to return to idea you join NATO later. UA authorities will look as unstable, if change strategic priorities from Constitution easily.

THREAD. There is a belief that the global outcome, if not of the war, but its next stage will be decided by the battle for Kyiv. But it will be defined by battle for Donbas and the South, where Russia is trying to conquest as much territories, as possible. 1/ Kyiv has not disappeared from Putin's plans, but he can't capture it now. After occupation of large areas connecting Russia and occupied Crimea and enlarging occupied Donbas, Putin will offer ceasefire. While he won't talk about withdrawal of forced from at least these regions