First, of all there are many many treatment options, many many ongoing trials, and countless combinations already available to treat myeloma
Yes, we need new drugs, but we can wait for RCTs to show they extend survival, we don't need to use broken surrogates like response
Second, melflufen is like me-too melphalan, a drug used for decades.
The drug was approved based on uncontrolled response rate of 23.5%, but what if you just gave pts a different, older alkylator?
FDA threw the company a bone and let them run the OCEANS confirmatory trial without pre-treatment with dara (already proven drug), and against a doublet, which is beneath standard of care
It was a lay up
But despite this Ocean was halted b/c the experimental drug INCREASED death. Against a control arm BENEATH the US standard.
Wowzers!
All this happened within 8 months!
What are we doing in drug regulation;
Why accept a surrogate when hard endpoints are coming?
And actually..
Previously Chen & I proved that in these latter lines
that surrogates don't save time
NEW Paper 2022! @vkprasadlab
Once again we analyze the use (& MISUSE) of the parachute analogy in biomedicine
This time we trace citations to the original BMJ 2004 paper & the Yeh remix!
Let me walk you through the paper..
[THREAD]
First, you need to know that a parachute has a huge effect size. Without one, falling from plane, u are sure but dead. With one, deaths are ~1 per 10 million jumps.
Effect size, ARR = 99.999....
AKA amazing. Such a huge effect size, you don't need any trial to know it works!
Second, know that many in medicine love to believe they have something just as good.
My chemotherapy drug -- it's a parachute
A cloth mask to prevent covid -- a parachute
The Impella or Aortic balloon pump - two parachutes
renal artery stenting - parachute
Wow! π
secondary endpoint
potential for infinite looks at data
yet still, scant events (50?) of dubious clinical value (some asx?)
Plus other issues, including durability discussed in video
But postponing/ flip flopping is going to poison vax confidence
White house should not have pressured FDA on boosters
Gruber and Kraus should still be there
Politics cannot dictate vaccine approval
This is a total fiasco
This administration is doing serious, serious damage to vaccine confidence
The backlash will hurt a lot of people
States will get rid of good programs to encourage routine childhood immunization
Vaccines become even more political
This administration does not have a plan here
They should have awknowledged natural immunity
and tried for just 1 dose in people with no prior NI
Lots of talk of wearing masks.
The policy question is: what happens when you advise people to:
Wear cloth masks
Wear surgical
Wear n95s
You have to combine mask properties with real world compliance
Ans:
No benefit
11% benefit in setting w no immunity & high bias rct
No trial
The 11% benefit should have an* because there is a serious risk of concealment being revealed in the study due to imbalance and study population by arm
If you pair this imbalance with the idea that people will be slightly less likely to report symptoms if they were enrolled on the margin. You have a big problem
Some people are reporting that the failed Pfizer trial kids 6mo -4yo will show a reduction in symptomatic infections even though the antibody titers failed
Here is why even that data will be problematic π§΅
The first question will be how many of these infections occurred when Omicron was the dominant strain.
Any infection from the prior strain will not be that interesting or pertinent.
The next question will be: how symptomatic were the kids.
The second dose of their vaccine was perfectly timed so that the transient immunity would occur during the Omicron Wave. This also coincided with widespread asymptomatic testing for the holidays