Thread by @sumlenny

My forecast for Russia-Ukraine war (THREAD):
1)Putin has made his "big step": the whole show with SecCon meeting, 40 minutes speech on history, signing of treaties. He is happy for a while
2)Russia officially occupies Donbas part of Ukraine. Will provide some show (see above) /1

3) It is not to expect a full-scale offensive next days. Putin has got his show (see above) and can say he has won, the West is defeated;
4) Russia has its leverage: LDNR claims the whole territory of Donetsk/Luhansk oblast. Room for blackmailing Ukraine. /2

5) Escalation along the contact line can go on, but also can decrease. I think it is 35/65 chances. The main goal for Putin will be to force the West to start new "negotiations". Germany will be happy to imagine it is a great peace moderator nation; /3

6) Russian army will stay at UKR border for next weeks at least. It is a leverage Putin needs for negotiations. But the main step had been done already.
7) No Kyiv offensive within next weeks. Roads are shitty, costs are high. If Putin wanted to target Kyiv, he had done it now/4

8) Kyiv offensive is not needed AFTER recognition of LDNR. It is either/or case.
9) So for the next weeks, and most probable months (and years!) we have got our equilibrium: Abkhazia/S.Ossetia case in Ukraine. No annexation, but "recognition". Creation of illegal entities. /5

10) Too many things are dependent on how the West reacts, and if the West would sanction Russia hard (#SanctionRussiaNow !) I am afraid, Germany will play its best appeasement.
11) US+UK weapons deliveries have prevented a big war, looks like. Shame on you, German government.END