Raoul Pal Profile picture
Feb 21 9 tweets 2 min read
Just taking the pulse of adoption of digital assets. Google search is always interesting...

Here is Bitcoin (treading water):
Here is ETH (decently strong):
DeFi has remained steady but isn't growing in adoption (by this metric)
NFT's are the new breakaway for network adoption (but split into thousands of projects, making it hard to know where to invest):
And Web 3.0 has suddenly becomes the all-encompassing term for the digital asset space and its applications layer... this trend has just started.
The true consumer applications layer (Web 3.0 and NFT's) are getting the most new interest and is what is really going to scale to the billions but split over millions of projects and areas (music, art, community, real estate, luxury goods, metaverse, etc).
ETH seems to be capturing the L1 element of the applications layer (sort of like the social token of the applications ecosystem).

BTC as the base layer is less likely to see the rise in interest in this point in its adoption curve - more steady increases in adoption over time.
DeFi, considering the TAM of its application, is likely to see much more interest over time. We have only seen the first mini-wave. Wait until TradFi goes on blockchain for some real magic applications.

Social tokens, when they become mainstream, will likely be in the top 2 or 3
For those of you who care about macro too, I think we are getting really really close to a buy bonds, buy tech, buy crypto set up.

More to come... watching closely but likely over next 2 weeks.

Meanwhile, patience....

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More from @RaoulGMI

Feb 22
Been spending time looking at music NFT's stemming from my conversation 2 years ago with @RAC and then many more like @3LAU @JackSpallone etc. If you have ever wanted to be an A&R person and find new talent, this is your chance to do it!
sound.xyz is super interesting as a platform for artists. We can now join a community, invest in rights in a song, etc. If it works out, you do well, if not you still do well as you get to enjoy the music as an owner.
I know this will be BIG. Think of everyone becoming a music marketor and promotor for their favourites where they have a stake in the community or the song.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 18
If you dont yet understand bonds and yield curves, @RealVision produces some amazing education content. Here is a primer on Fixed Income... 1/

realvision.com/shows/investor…
And here is one about liquidity and the yield curve overall:

realvision.com/shows/investor…
This is how to use macro data...

realvision.com/shows/investor…
Read 6 tweets
Jan 18
There is something interesting about this rate cycle in the yield curve.... Normally, it doesn't really flatten until a couple of years post recession and normally at 250bps. Now, this could be a correction but if it breaks this line, it suggests a shorter cycle than normal.
This doesn't mean an recession is imminent but it means that the bond market sees less ability to tighten without slowing growth. We saw similar in Japan's YC in 2010 (lower than the usual 150bps)...
And Japan's bond yields never recovered...
Read 4 tweets
Jan 8
Just a reminder - You cant use daily or weekly charts if your time horizon is years. You're either in this for network adoption over time or you are a trader. I am not a trader in crypto. I can't care less about 50% swings in a 70 vol asset.
In the end, the only technicals that matter (Metcalfe's Law matters more) are:

Log chart
48 month Exponential Moving Average?
Maybe the trend since 2015 (but same as EXPMA).

I seriously doubt the bull market ends at regression trend, it should see higher (1 standard deviation+)
BTC is cheap vs Metcalfe's Law....(and has been for a long time - my guess is because there is less network applications on BTC currently than ML would prefer).
Read 14 tweets
Dec 28, 2021
There is a lot going on in the digital asset space but also nothing going on and that is the problem...

Let me give you some thoughts... 1/
BTC volumes have been stagnant since the run up in 2020
And active wallet addresses have not gone anywhere either...It seems that retail activity peaked at the beginning of 2021
Read 25 tweets
Dec 14, 2021
Wow, everyone has gotten super bearish on everything in digital assets

I do think crimped excess disposable income due to inflation is partially to blame. The marginal retail buyer is more… marginal 1/
YoY rate of change of Fed balance sheet is also a factor but in past cycles risk on continued in the main.

But a lot is position squaring and rebalancing after a good year of owning risk. Tax selling too.

But my view is that the game hasn’t yet changed…
And many are scarred by past cycles when this point in the halving cycle produced the top.

But past damages to your psyche can also cause you to be excessively cautious in what appears to be an elongated cycle or change of structure
Read 13 tweets

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