Faisal Islam Profile picture
Feb 22 6 tweets 3 min read
NEW:
Chancellor @OlafScholz speaking in Berlin with Taoiseach announces certification or given and “Nordstream 2 pipeline cannot go online” after the situation changed with Putin’s “incomprehensible” move last night, and EU-US consultations … via @dwnews
Significant move - not least because his predecessor in the Chancellery and party colleague Gerhard Schroeder is chairman of the board of Nordstream…

Interesting to see if Schroeder feels pressure to resign…
This is a very significant potential hit for a country and an economy so dependent on Russian gas, and ups the ante as to what UK should do with its source of potential sanctions leverage - Russian assets in the City
Moscow stock market slumping hard… losing all the gains associated with the rise in oil and gas prices over past year… via @Refinitiv
Market natural gas prices up sharply since Putin speech yesterday, though not to as high levels as in winter - above £2 a therm for April delivery to UK… typically 60-70p. HT @Refinitiv
And the former Russian President says this in response to Scholz - export gas prices had been budgeted at $300/ 1000 cubic meters at the beginning of the year…

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More from @faisalislam

Feb 24
Brent crude oil goes over $100 a barrel for first time since 2014 as Russia attacks Ukraine Image
Pride of Manchester winner @jezmyers just sent me this pic as families try to escape out of one of the main motorways from Kyiv, where he went to try to help his partner & family with visas… Image
Ukraine has closed its airspace to civilian planes and EASA has sent out a warning “there is a risk of both intentional targeting and misidentification of civil aircraft” - so limited normal routes out - HT @Theothebald
Read 9 tweets
Feb 22
NEW Bill Browder, former biggest investor in Russia and force behind Magnitsky Acts tells BBC that the UK sanctions are “pretty tepid”
Culture Secretary will talk to UEFA about canning Gazprom Arena St Petersburg as venue for Champions League Final…

Games tonight, including at Stamford Bridge, on “the road to St Petersburg”, in the competition sponsored by Gazprom…
More from my interview with @Billbrowder on #BBCNewsSix

“I'm disappointed. The sanctions will absolutely no way change Putin's calculus about whether to go violently further into Ukraine…” UK should sanction 50 top oligarchs, he says
Read 5 tweets
Feb 21
Kremlin statement that President Putin intends to recognise independence of the two separatist controlled areas of Ukraine, after that incredible televised security council meeting, and has informed President Macron and Chancellor Scholz
Follow here:
bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl…
Read 12 tweets
Feb 9
Just researching an mathematical game theory-political thesis…

That the House of Commons rules create [errr, “inadvertently”] an incentive to lie…

Digging around Erskine May, which is now published, there’s some eye openers on there in the rules…

erskinemay.parliament.uk/section/4874/l…
“Expressions when used in respect of other Members which are regarded with particular seriousness, generally leading to prompt intervention from the Chair and often a requirement on the Member to withdraw the words, include ..charges of uttering a deliberate falsehood.”…
Actually in the rules - the Speaker may have a bit more power to intervene… “generally” if he really wanted to…

In past MPs asked to rephrase allegation of regular misuse of statistics at the dispatch box, but an allegation of ‘spectacular insincerity’ was tolerated…
Read 4 tweets
Feb 7
EU officials discussing LNG tankers as Russia alternative. Chancellor Scholz meets Biden.

Biden met with Qatari Emir to ask for Europe to be supplied with LNG

Qataris said no spare capacity, tied up in l-term contracts with eg Japan

US asked Japan to allow diversion to Europe
Japan, the biggest LNG importer in the world, says considering diversion to help Europe in cutoff

Meanwhile Xi and Putin met on Friday at Olympics, with Chinese promising to mop up extra Russian supplies, eg, if there is an embargo on Moscow
While UK not physically dependent on Russian pipelined gas, like EU (40%ish), price paid certainly depends on this Great Gas Game going on in background of tensions on Ukraine’s border…

Both EU & UK moved away from l-t contracts towards “efficiency” of market spot prices…
Read 6 tweets
Feb 3
New energy cap just about to be announce - and the Treasury response, and the Bank of England rate decision - all in next hour - follow live page here… bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-6…
NEW ofgem announce energy price cap will rise by £693 for typical household annually in April to £1917 for dual fuel £2017 for prepayment. Huge rises - will send inflation closer to 7%
Chancellor explaining how he will try to help mitigate - says its for Bank of England to deal with inflation…

NEW: £350 support consisting of

£200 rebate in October to be repaid over 5 years at £40 per year …

£150 non repayable rebate council taxes for 4/5 households
Read 15 tweets

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