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O B Profile picture
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Feb 23 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
I trade this one a lot but yesterday, despite knowing the flooding & winter effect, I took the position upwards to 4% portfolio weight yesterday. Despite being a ketchup company like no other, the potential is huge while being quite low risk imo.
tasekomines.com/assets/docs/Q4…
I do expect Florence to get its permit soon and I do expect it to work, be the most environmentally friendly "mine" in the world as well as very profitable. The pipeline after that is world class. Some small positive noise about New Prosperity lately imo despite confidentiality.
"The dialogue is not complete but it remains constructive, and the parties have therefore agreed to extend the standstill for a further year so that they and the Province of British Columbia can continue to pursue a long-term and mutually acceptable resolution of the conflict."
A solution to this is a completely free option and should in case of happening multiply the stock price over night.

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More from @OriginalBraila

O B Profile picture
Feb 23
What are the reasons to buy $RIG instead of $VAL?
Read 4 tweets
O B Profile picture
Feb 21
This chart makes sense to me. Starting at the cost of a newbuild and the first 6y which are the ECO vessels staying close to linear and then dropping like a stone for 2013 and older. Clearly brokers acknowledge the ECO value closing in on IMO2023 regulations.
(Clarkson) Image
But here is the Clarkson and general broker view on large tankers, it doesn't make sense to me. There is no acknowledge that 0-6y ECO's should stay close to linear depreciation. Quite the opposite. And note that this is not due to new vessels not being able to get profit charters Image
According to $OET, if you start with a NB value of 120musd (their chosen example) and stick to linear for ECO vessels (meaning 2014 and younger) their NAV is above 150 NOK today.
Read 5 tweets
O B Profile picture
Feb 16
VLCC scrubber saving 9k
Eco saving 15ton x750usd= 11k
In motion 80% (hidden additional advantage is that Eco's will have less standstill)
16k usd daily advantage
Advantage increases in a better market with speed causing higher consumption
Means less bleeding while wait for upturn
This chart is more than VLCCs it is "tankers" but it illustrates the point where we soon have no orderbook and beyond "old tankers savior Iran" faces this every quarter. And this is +20y, that is really scrapping material. Y-day we saw 2 Capes 19y scrap in arguably a good market
The above is a chart showing when and number of tankers that have to do what is a very expensive dry dock. A very natural end date for a +20y tanker if you do not have the Biden trade anymore.
Read 7 tweets
O B Profile picture
Jul 10, 2021
Top holdings for me:
1. $OET
2. #2020bulkers
3. eagleships.com
4. $TGB (Taseko)

New kid on the block is Eagle, small dry bulk ships.
Not all ECO but decent and it is really in the large ship segments ECO is most important. Top mgt without historical issues.
Besides its ECO share, most ships are also scrubber fitted. The company is making an absurd amount of money at current rates from Q3 it should be viewed as heavily spot and that means trading on something like P/E 1.3 as everything above 10k per day is Earnings on 53 vessels.
I am not saying these 32k per day will stay the coming year. But I am saying that so far they seem quite sticky and not so volatile. To some extent this is probably due to both being impacted but the same distortions as containers (without having that awful orderbook) +
Read 6 tweets
O B Profile picture
Jul 10, 2021
Lets get the basics right:

$NMM trades at 35% of NAV. The logical thing, a money machine... would be to sell vessels and buy back stocks. The company instantly would tripple its money doing that.

Navios instead does the opposite.

Shocking seeing this presented as positive.
From the moment I mentioned Navios here, buying the late Navios containers, I pointed out that this is not a normal company. It really REALLY deserves to trade at a discount. It is among the worst you find in shipping when it comes to managements not being aligned with minority
People can absolutely and probably should speculate in $NMM because it is such a great setup. But everyone should also understand that it is not a company working for YOU. And do not say shipping is horrible if U loose money on unpleasant stuff Navios does.
No position currently
Read 4 tweets
O B Profile picture
May 16, 2021
Taseko is lower risk because it already has very profitable and stable mine up and running (understand that last quarters were distorted from highgrading during covid followed by lowgrading as copper recovered).

Next big de-risker is when Florence starts according to plan.
Florence is fully financed and will be a silly profitable mine throwing off gigantic amounts of cashflow. This will then make Yellowhead Capex fairly easy to finance gradually starting say Autumn 2023.

#VirtuousCircle
IF New Prosperity re emerges that could replace Yellowhead as next after Florence and all my calculations would be wildly off. Copper production could be as planned but company cost would negative per pound.
Read 7 tweets

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