Thread by @priesemannlab

Mitigating the spread of #COVID-19 relies on voluntary and mandatory action.
In our recent paper, we show how voluntary contributions can greatly mitigate the spread --- if the mandatory rules are moderated well.
frontiersin.org/articles/10.33… (1/17)

In a multidisciplinary team led by @ViolaPriesemann (@mpids) and with @Sumidu (@RWTH/@UniLuebeck), M Kretzschmar (@UMCUtrecht), M Mäs (@KITKarlsruhe) and K Nagel (@TUBerlin), we aimed to untangle the complex interplay between Risk Perception, Behavior, and #COVID-19 Spread (2/17)

In our paper, we model how individuals voluntarily change their protective behavior, i.e. reduce their potentially contagious contacts, and increase their vaccination willingness based on how full intensive care units (ICUs) are. (3/17)
frontiersin.org/articles/10.33…

Mathematically, this is represented by feedback loops connecting individuals' memory of past ICU occupancy, disease spread, and vaccination willingness. In the picture, different compartments represent the progression of the disease. Among our novel results: (4/17)

First: Including these feedback loops allowed us to observe quantitatively more realistic waves. As individuals reduce their contacts when ICUs are full, they also have the power to break a wave, yielding more complex dynamics than models without feedback loops. (5/17)

Second: When mandatory restrictions result in low case numbers, individuals might not feel motivated to voluntarily protect themselves and others. Combined with #waningimmunity, a “rebound” wave is imminent when restrictions are lifted. (6/17)
arxiv.org/abs/2110.01554

Third: When restrictions are moderate and leave sufficient space for individual voluntary actions, these actions can compensate changes in the pandemic situation adaptively. (7/17)

We applied our framework to study the effects of the recently emerged #Omicron VOC at a time when many features of this VOC were largely unknown (see

https://twitter.com/ViolaPriesemann/status/1474075636104843264

). (8/17)

These results (from the pre-print version) were also featured in @derspiegel ... (9/17) spiegel.de/wissenschaft/c…

... and discussed by @maxplanckpress. mpg.de/18097978/coron… (10/17)

So, is it good to aim for low case numbers? In the absence of working #vaccines, strategies aiming at low incidence are desirable. There, test-trace-and-isolate initiatives can promptly break contagion chains and allow for more freedom. (11/17) doi.org/10.1126/sciadv…

In our case, restrictions should aim to prevent overwhelming hospital capacity and to engage voluntary behaviour which will ultimately provide the best path to endemicity. Altogether, we put individual actions on the spotlight: We have the power to mitigate #COVID-19. (12/17)

We thank Prof. Dr. @CorneliaBetsch, her colleagues and her team for publicly sharing survey data of the COVID-19 Snapshot Monitoring (#COSMO) study, which enabled a quantitative approach otherwise not possible. (13/17)

By the way: Our paper is part of the Editor's Challenge in Social Physics: Misinformation and Cooperation, collection led by Prof. Matjaž Perc @matjazperc. Submissions are open in @FrontPhys until late June! (14/17) frontiersin.org/research-topic…

Lastly a big thank you to the group members that made this research possible: Philipp Dönges, Joel Wagner, @sebcontreras, @EmilIftekhar, Simon Bauer, Sebastian Mohr, and @JonasDehning (15/17)

... and the support of our institutions: @mpids @maxplanckpress @RWTH @UMCUtrecht @UMCU_Intl @KITKarlsruhe @TUBerlin @VSPTUBerlin @uniGoettingen (16/17)

If this research piqued your interest and you would like to contribute, please contact any of the authors, e.g. @ViolaPriesemann. We are looking for enthusiast PhD students and PostDocs to join our teams and push this topic further. (17/17)

@EckerleIsabella @CiesekSandra @BrinkmannLab @Sander_Lab @ECMOKaragianni1 @martinmckee @PeterWilleit @EricTopol @sbfnk @CzypionkaThomas @BPrainsack @richardneher @cosnet_bifi @MalteHenk @dgurdasani1 @AdamJKucharski @OliuBarton @kakape