Thread by @NatickBobCat

Are you having trouble filling out your #2022MMM Bracket? Too hard to make decisions? What's a Sneak of Weasels and can they beat a Glaring of Cats? (That one is easy: No)

DON’T PANIC

Grab your towel and follow along with Professor Bobcat’s March Mammal Madness Manifesto

https://twitter.com/Mammals_Suck/status/1496515876119781376

First up, reach down for that confidence and remember that this is YOUR bracket and you don’t have to let anybody else make you second guess.

Why am I saying this?

Because if you’re reading #2022MMM advice from an Internet Bobcat you’ve got some issues, Biped.

Next up, you’ve got your essential #2022MMM decision to make with that newfound mesopredator level confidence:

Are you going with your head or your heart?

If the latter, you get to pick your favorites and go ahead and cheer for them, but,

AND THAT’S OK.

There is a rich history of picking hopeless creatures as your favorite and complaining about the unfairness of it all when they lose is half the fun.

#2022MMM

https://twitter.com/radiationmouth/status/1370210210715947009?s=20&t=NGJxIvx5DDyhZQln09dcsg

When I pick my Bracket from the heart, I follow a simple Algorithm:
1. Lynx species always win
2. Cats/felids/things I decide are felids always win UNLESS they are up against a Lynx
3. All other battles winner is decided by what I would rather eat.

#2022MMM

So if that’s your path, off you go and pick that #2022MMM bracket with who you want to win and be happy with it. My bracket from the Heart is in progress and I will post later...

Now, the real reason this Manifesto exists is for those of you who want to really dig into who’s most likely to win or lose in #2022MMM, after all:

And if we’re going to talk about the head, let’s dig into the mechanics of #2022MMM. Randall Monroe of @xkcd very accurately and unintentionally summed up the heart of MMM thusly:

Each #2022MMM battle is set up with the moderators carefully assessing the percentage chance that each competitor has to win, taking into account mass, armament, abilities, general orneriness...

AND the ecology of the #2022MMM battleground. This is of critical importance and often gives the higher seeds (lower number = higher seed) a tremendous advantage in the early rounds as the battle will take place in their home turf. Or surf. Whichever.

The Eclectus Parrot (native to the Solomon Islands and NE Oz) suddenly finding itself on a subantarctic island in March may well have much bigger things to worry about than the fact that it is now cohabitating with a Macaroni Penguin.

#2022MMM

Once the percentage chance is set, the soulless calculation automaton @MMMRNG1 picks a random number, and the #2022MMM Narrator fits that with the biology of the combatants and the ecology where the battle takes place. If we’re very lucky, #Carnage ensues

https://twitter.com/Mammals_Suck/status/977009015363219456

An 8 seed vs a 9 seed is in coin flip territory, most of the time probably in the 45% (9) to 55% (8) chance of winning. Not that the winner has a prayer of advancing in the next round as they’ll be walking into whichever meat grinder has the 1 seed in that bracket. #2022MMM

A 1 seed vs a 16 seed is going to be more like 95% to 5% respectively *at best*
There have been thirty-six 16 seeds since 2013, they’ve all lost.
Don’t pick a 16 seed to win anything in #2022MMM. Really. Just…

Yes, I know, probability says that eventually a 16 seed will pull out a win and the #2022MMM Narrator will have to contort themselves around that outcome. You’re not going to accurately predict that, though.

In #2022MMM 15 seed odds vs 2 seeds aren’t going to be much better. Three years ago saw the Tenrec pull out the first ever 15 seed winner vs second seeded Markhor,

https://twitter.com/am_anatiala/status/1106004088427286531?s=21

…. But anyone that called that win wasn’t a genius,

So, pick the Wild Card (go with your gut) then go ahead and just advance all the 1 and 2 seeds in your #2022MMM bracket, but keep an eye on that Orca in later rounds. It’s going to dine on either the venomous olive sea snake or get a mouthful of hagfish slime

This can impact the narration (but not the original odds fed into the @MMMRNG1). Damage taken early can fester, RIP #2019 2 seed Nimravid.

https://twitter.com/mammals_suck/status/1110367458903220224?s=21

… #2022MMM

Won't really impact how you pick your Bracket, but bragging rights on predicting how the narrations in #2021MMM will go is always good.

3 and 4 seeds can lose early. It’s rare, but these upsets are the Bracket Busters that inspire the most wailing and gnashing of #Carnassials. Alligator Snapping Turtle was my Final Roar Dark Horse in #2019MMM

https://twitter.com/Drew_Lab/status/976629301884923907

Upsets happen. Factor this in when you get to the Elite Trait, because that’s when higher seed advantage goes away and #2022MMM ecology is randomly determined between Montane Forest, Kelp Forest, Savanna, and Sea Ice through to the Championship.

Most early upsets are going to happen in the 5/12, 6/11, 7/10 and 8/9 seed battles. Pick some upsets in here, paying attention to the ecologies, but don’t pick TOO many upsets. Higher seeded animals are higher seeded for a reason, not just to irritate #2022MMM fans.

If you’re going to win your #2022MMM bracket, you need to hit a few upsets, but smarter to pick those carefully from the second round on, in #2020MMM Gopher Tortoise was a surprise Final Roar combatant instead of the electrifying Trumpeter Swan.

https://twitter.com/alyb_batgirl/status/1243338704170749955

So at this point you should have your #2022MMM “from the head” Bracket almost done, but let’s talk about the Final Roar and Championship for a bit. Take a look at who you have in your Final Roar, any critters seeded 6 or lower?

Final Roar history:
#2021MMM Three 1 seeds and a 3 seed
#2020MMM 1 seed, two 3 seeds, 7 seed
#2019MMM Three 1 seeds, and a 3 seed
#2018MMM Two 1 seeds, 2 seed, 4 seed
#2017MMM Two 1 seeds, 2 seed, 4 seed

#2022MMM

Final Roar history cont:
#2016MMM 1 seed, two 2 seeds, 3 seed
#2015MMM 1 seed 2 seed two 4 seeds
#2014MMM Two 1 seeds, 2 seed 5 seed
#2013MMM Two 1 seeds, 3 seed, 4 seed

If your #2022MMM Final Roar doesn’t have at least one 1 seed, and anything below a 5 seed you really might want to rethink your strategy. BUT, don’t overload on the 1 seeds, either, 2s, 3s and 4s frequently make it to the finals and a 7 snuck in a couple years ago.

All THAT said, this year, while we’ve got Apex Predators and a tanklike herbivore or two, we’ve also got an entire division of Collectives and a bunch of oddballs in Why Not Both? Expect weird upsets in #2022MMM

OOOH.

One last thing. Pay attention to the #2022MMM Latin Binomials

that #2022MMM combatant may not be the one you think it is...

So, who should your Champion be for #2020MMM?

You’ve got all the tools to determine that for yourself now, this is YOUR Bracket, remember?

But seriously, pick the Lionesses or the Jaguar.

#2022MMM