Aaron Derfel Profile picture
Feb 24, 2022 11 tweets 6 min read Read on X
1) Montréal’s public health director said Wednesday the city was entering a “transition phase” amid falling #COVID hospitalizations. But 10,500 kilometers away, South Korea's prime minister was appealing for calm amid an unprecedented spike in cases. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
2) In just four days, the number of declared #COVID infections in South Korea has soared from 100,000 to more than 171,000 – that nation's highest by far than at any other point in the #pandemic. “There is no reason at all to fear or panic,” Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum said. Image
3) South Korea has now surpassed the United States in its rate of new weekly #COVID hospitalizations, at a rate of 201.81 per million population compared with the U.S rate of 138.18. This is astonishing given South Korea’s Zero COVID approach in dealing with the #pandemic. Image
4) South Korea confirmed five cases of the original Omicron variant of concern on Dec. 1. By Dec. 22, the nation of nearly 52 million marked its deadliest day in the #pandemic, with 109 #COVID deaths declared. Deaths then started to trend downward until the beginning of February. Image
5) Pandemic deaths started rebounding there Feb. 7. At a seven-day average of 0.90 deaths per million on Feb. 19, South Korea’s rate is far below the U.S.’s rate of 6.53, but it’s surging. Why is this occurring now? Could it be related to the #Omicron stealth sub-variant, BA.2? Image
6) Korea News reported Monday the prevalence of BA.2 in South Korea rose to 4.9% from about 1% two weeks earlier, likely an underestimate. By comparison, the Centers for Disease Control notes that BA.2 currently accounts for 3.8% of circulating SARs-CoV-2 lineages in the U.S. Image
7) In Denmark, the more contagious BA.2 sub-variant accounted for nearly half of all new cases on Jan. 20, according to the Statens Serum Institut. BA.2 prevalence has risen to more than 66% since then, prolonging the Scandinavian nation’s ongoing surge of #COVID deaths. Image
8) South Africa has recorded the highest BA.2 prevalence in the world at more than 86%. It’s likely BA.2 also extended the Omicron death wave in that country, but the impact has not been as severe, perhaps because of its much younger population (only 5.5% are over the age of 65). Image
9) Which brings us back to Québec. Dr. Mylène Drouin, head of Montréal public health, noted BA.2 represented less than 10% of new #COVID cases in Québec, well below the 15% estimate of her boss more than a week ago, but still almost triple the U.S. percentage. That is indeed odd.
10) Since Québec is no longer screening for the #coronavirus to the extent it used to, one wonders how Drouin could arrive at a BA.2 prevalence of about 10%, which would be double the prevalence in South Korea, which had already gone through a first Omicron wave in December.
11) More likely, the experience in Denmark and now South Korea suggest the full impact of BA.2 may not yet have been felt in Québec, the rest of Canada or the U.S. Yet Québec will continue lifting public health protections, including school masks as of March 7. End of thread.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

Mar 13
1) On Tuesday, the Quebec government unveiled its 2024-2025 budget, with the biggest expenditure to be made on health and social services. In this Twitter thread, I assess whether this "Health/Education Priorities" budget lives up to its hype, especially when it comes to seniors.
2) As you can see from the chart below, the lion's share of spending in the budget is for health and social services, pegged at $61.9 billion — up by 4.17% from the year before. In contrast, spending on education — so vital to Quebec's future — will rise 9.35% to $22.3 billion. Image
3) But as far as health and social services is concerned, Tuesday's budget may be indulging in a bit of spin. The chart below states that Quebec will spend an extra $3.7 billion over the next five years to "support a humane and effective organization of health care." Image
Read 9 tweets
Jan 5
1) "The pandemic is far from over," one of the preeminent experts on #COVID19, Dr. Eric Topol, declared today, Jan. 4, 2024 — three years after the world first learned of a novel virus that was killing people in China. In this thread, I take stock of what's going on in Quebec.
2) "The pandemic is far from over, as evidenced by the rapid rise to global dominance of the JN.1 variant of SARS-CoV-2," Topol noted in a Los Angeles Times op-ed. In Quebec, nearly one in two genetic samples collected was from JN.1 as of two weeks ago. It's likely higher now. Image
3) "Clearly this virus variant, with its plethora of new mutations, has continued its evolution ... for infecting or reinfecting us," Topol added. Although the updated booster is considered 60% protective against hospitalization, only 17% of the Quebec population has taken it.
Read 10 tweets
Dec 17, 2023
1) BREAKING: By every major indicator, Quebec's health-care system is now arguably the worst it's ever been. Please click on my story below on Quebec wait lists for cancer and other surgery setting record highs — again. via @mtlgazettemontrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
2) Although Quebec has made it a priority to tackle wait lists for cancer surgery, more than 4,400 oncology patients are still waiting for their operations. More than 600 are waiting longer than the medically acceptable delay of 57 days, potentially putting their health at risk. Image
3) Even the wait list for so-called non-urgent surgery has now swelled to nearly 164,000 people. Almost 14,000 Quebecers today have been waiting more than a year for their surgery. At a year's wait, a non-urgent surgery starts to become urgent. Image
Read 14 tweets
Dec 6, 2023
1) BREAKING: Quebec, like other jurisdictions across North America, is now in the midst of a new #COVID19 resurgence — nearly 4 years into the #pandemic. In this thread, I will assess the implications of this latest wave of infections, likely driven by a new SARS-CoV-2 variant. Image
2) On Dec. 5, Quebec declared a total of 2,214 hospitalizations with and for #COVID. Please note this increase also reflects a change in the way Quebec's public health institute has been compiling such hospitalizations. But make no mistake: Quebec is still facing a resurgence. Image
3) The United States is also facing a #COVID hospitalizations resurgence, with 20,000 new admissions per week, according to preeminent expert @EricTopol. In the U.S., the JN.1 variant is becoming dominant, with wastewater levels surging with SARS-CoV-2. See Topol's tweet below. Image
Read 10 tweets
Nov 13, 2023
1) BREAKING: Jewish-owned businesses in Montreal are being targeted and vandalized with antisemitic profanity. Please click below to read my report.
via @mtlgazettemontrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
2) "Last weekend, they put swastikas on the … menus downtown and they wrote FUCK THE JEWS," a Jewish business owner told me. I have also seen a list of Jewish businesses that is circulating, provoking not only boycotts but vandalism.
3) The Gazette has decided not to publish these disturbing images, as the Jewish business owners are fearful of reprisals.
Read 4 tweets
Jun 16, 2023
1) BREAKING: A month after Japan downgraded #COVID19 to the seasonal flu, the country is now beset with a 9th wave of infections. In this thread, I will explore the persistence of the #pandemic that everyone — especially politicians — wants to forget. Image
2) First, it's worth noting that the number of #COVID hospitalizations in the nation of 125 million rose to 4,330 from 4,122 a week before. The seven-day average for the number of patients in intensive care units was 79, according to the Japan Times.
3) It appears that XBB subtypes of the SARS-CoV-2 virus are driving the latest wave of infections in Japan. Meanwhile, China has recorded a more than five-fold surge in the number of people diagnosed with COVID in hospitals since April. China is also bracing for another wave. Image
Read 7 tweets

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