Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Feb 24 5 tweets 1 min read
The tragedy of what is being done to Ukraine is that it is in a position where if it retaliated and strikes inside Russia it will be accused of “escalating” which is one of the weird aspects of war these days; countries are just supposed to be attacked and fight in borders
If Ukraine acquired defensive weapons it was also seen as “provoking” and if it wanted to join NATO this was portrayed as “provoking”…basically anything Ukraine did was painting it into an unfair corner
The unprovoked attack on Ukraine is unfolding openly and there are no consequences for the airstrikes on Ukraine forces. Total impunity.
I saw the same logic about the invasion of Afrin, the people there were not allowed to defend themselves or they were “provoking” and attacks on them were impunity.
Also the attack on Armenia in 2020; total impunity and no one did anything. The world has given a blank check to countries to bomb and attack eachother.

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More from @sfrantzman

Feb 24
My Ukraine coverage today, five articles looking at various angles;
1- "There is no international mechanism or world leadership that can stop wars like this and it will be essential in the next days to see how the US, UK and others respond to this attack" jpost.com/international/…
2-Speaking to Ukrainians about the war, including a journalist I worked with when I was there in 2017 in Donbas front; #UkraineRussiaConflict jpost.com/international/…
3- Russia unveils its new warfighting abilities, using cruise missiles and other tactics in invasion; #Ukraine jpost.com/international/…
Read 5 tweets
Feb 24
Question:
Months ago we were told that Russia was "rattled"...that Ukraine was "boosted" by Turkish drones it acquired. A "big role" in Ukraine's offense...so today where are the drones? Or is this a lesson that these kinds of UAVs alone are actually not gamechangers? Image
One of the narratives, falsely understood I think, from the Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict was that the Ankara-made drones were a gamechanger, when in fact it was other loitering munition technology, primarily Israel's, that was important alongside it
Ankara has a very close relationship with some media and it feeds stories to the media to pump up the sales...there are uncritical reports...like questions of "how do the drones work in contested airspace"?
Read 10 tweets
Feb 24
Uman is far from the front, it also is a town of well-known Jewish sites; what was the target of this strike?
This says artillery, but that seems implausible, that's 500km from the front?
That is where they geolocated it in Uman. So just going to put this here, Image
Read 4 tweets
Feb 24
Pakistan has long been an ally of authoritarians...oddly the US once empowered it and relied on it in Afghanistan...kind of like the US then relied on Qatar and made it a major non-NATO ally; bad decisions...

Khan is in Moscow today, he thinks he knows where world is going.
Apparently it didn't go quite as planned; it was supposed to be quite momentous...thehindu.com/news/internati…
Back in 2019 Khan was at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in Bishkek, Pakistan premier stated the world is standing at a crossroads and the "advent of a multipolar global order" is being witnessed. He likes Russia-China's rise.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 23
A LOT this week in #IsraelDefenseNews stories:

@ILAerospaceIAI says it "delivered the first F-16 wing and vertical fin to Lockheed Martin, following the reopening of the F-16 wing assembly line at IAI."

Photos courtesy IAI
"As a result of increased worldwide demand for the F-16 Block 70/72, IAI reopened the assembly lines that had been established in the 1980s to continue production of the F-16 aerostructures assembled at IAI. The F-16 wings and vertical fins will be shipped to the F-16 production"
"and final assembly line in Greenville, South Carolina, USA."
Read 13 tweets
Feb 22
I’m going to guess most people and articles that commented about Putin’s speech didn’t actually listen to it or read it. Most of them didn’t even touch on the key parts. I think they read a paraphrased version or the end point and just ran with that.
It doesn’t make Putin’s speech right or wrong…but one might as well read it if they want to say things about it. I read one whole article about how it gives a false version of history that didn’t even mention one quote from it or discuss the false aspect
I think wading through 8,000 words of the speech is probably difficult and obviously listening to it takes time (I listened to it during a drive and then read it later)…but then just deal with the key issue…don’t pretend to really challenge all its points if you don’t read it
Read 4 tweets

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