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Feb 24 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
European natural gas prices surge 41% (!) after Russian forces attacked targets across Ukraine 📈

⚠️ Supply disruption feared after the West vowed further sanctions
💸 Dutch TTF jumped to 125 euros/MWh (nearly $40/mmbtu), the highest level in 2 months

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Around a third of Russia’s gas to Europe typically flows via Ukraine, and analysts have said any escalation of the conflict may disrupt those flows.

“In the event of prolonged disruption, gas inventory couldn’t be rebuilt through the summer,” Woodmac's Filippenko said
Ukrainian state company Naftogaz says all the facilities of its gas transportation system are operating as usual so far and that natural gas is being supplied in the required amounts

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
European gas prices are at a two-month high, and well above normal for this time of year

Meanwhile...

🇩🇪 German power for March reached 260 euros a megawatt-hour, the highest since Jan. 7
🪨 European coal for next year gained as much as 13% to $145 a ton on ICE Futures Europe
🥇 Gold surged to its highest level in more than a year after Russia ordered troops into Ukraine, as bullion plays its traditional role as a harbor amid geopolitical upheaval
European natural gas prices extend rally 📈📈📈

Dutch TTF natural gas futures gained as much as 47%, the most since since at least 2005, in their fourth-straight daily advance

Trading at about $41/mmbtu right now

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
European natural gas price rally continues

Dutch TTF futures trading at 134 euros/mwh, or $44/mmbtu

(They’re still a tad below record high of ~187 euros)
European natural gas prices now trading at the equivalent of $46/mmbtu

That’s pretty high
As expected, Asian LNG prices surged amid Russia disruption fears

European gas prices surged on Thursday, which will boost global competition for a finite amount of spot LNG. Asian buyers will need to increase bids to attract LNG shipments from the Atlantic

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More from @SStapczynski

Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Feb 24
🚨 Brent oil surged to $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014 as Russia’s dramatic escalation of the Ukraine crisis sparked fears of a supply disruption

🇷🇺 Russia is a key supplier of oil & gas to the world
📈 Oil has rallied 50% in the last year

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
👀
In order to reign in the surge in oil prices, the Biden administration is again considering tapping its emergency supply of crude 🇺🇸

🇯🇵 Japan will coordinate with IEA to help stabilize oil markets
🇦🇺 Australia will join in a coordinated release if asked

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 8 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Feb 22
Germany halted the certification process for the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline following President Putin’s decision to send troops to two self-proclaimed separatist republics
🇩🇪💥🇷🇺

📈 European gas prices rose after the move, and are currently up 8%

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
BACKGROUND: The certification process of the pipeline, which links Russia to Germany bypassing Ukraine, has been on hold since the end of last year as the operator tries to comply with European Union rules as requested by the German energy regulator
The decision to put it into limbo demonstrates Germany’s determination to shoulder the economic cost of holding Putin to account for his actions

Or, in other words, "it'll cost you"
Read 6 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Feb 22
Putin said he’s recognizing two self-proclaimed separatist republics in eastern Ukraine and plans to send “peacekeeping forces” 🇷🇺

📈 Brent oil hit $97/bbl (7-year high) #OOTT
📈 Conflict or retaliatory Western sanctions could upend flows of commodities

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
📈 WTI crude oil futures climbed more than 3% from Friday, after not closing Monday due to the US holiday, to $94 a barrel
📈 Gold touched an eight-month high
📈 Silver, platinum and palladium all gained

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 9 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Feb 21
An LNG supply deficit is expected to emerge in the mid-2020s as demand outstrips supply, according to Shell's annual outlook released today 🚢🚨

⚠️ LNG supply gap to start earlier than forecast last year (See 2022 report vs 2021)
💰 More investment needed to boost supply: Shell ImageImage
European and Asian natural gas prices surged to a record high last year due in part to a lack of supply Image
Global LNG demand will roughly double by 2040, Shell forecasts

📈 Global LNG demand is expected to cross 700 million tons a year by 2040, compared to 380 million tons in 2021
📈 Asia is slated to consume the majority of this growth

Check out the report: shell.com/energy-and-inn… Image
Read 4 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Feb 21
US President Biden and Russia's Putin agreed in principle to a proposal for a summit meeting from France's Macron
🇺🇸🤝🇷🇺🤝🇫🇷

🛢️ Brent oil reverses gains and is down ~1%
🥇 Spot gold fell after earlier hitting the highest intraday level since June

#OOTT

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
Presidents Biden and Putin have “accepted the principle” of a summit on the condition that Russia doesn’t invade Ukraine

The substance would be prepped during a meeting by US Secretary of State Blinken and Russia Foreign Minister Lavrov Thursday

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Brent oil is back around $93/bbl

But that may not last long. Oil could be set for a “prolonged period” above $100 a barrel this year, with world demand poised to expand to a record, Vitol Group Chief Executive Officer Russell Hardy told Bloomberg TV

bloomberg.com/news/videos/20…
Read 5 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Feb 19
European power prices plummet as powerful storms are forecast to spur record wind generation 🌬 📉

🇩🇪 German power prices turn negative for some hours
🇬🇧 Rates fell in the UK, France, Spain & Italy

Power traders are facing a pretty volatile period

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The German day-ahead spot power price fell to 39.62 euros a megawatt-hour, the lowest since Dec. 30

Output from Germany’s wind and solar parks will surge about 8% above the demand for power at noon on Saturday
@ryanoferguson WindTok. Let’s make it happen
Read 7 tweets

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