Mahmudur Rahman, PhD Profile picture
Feb 24, 2022 9 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Where are these non-COVID excess deaths coming from? CDC data is updated on weekly basis. As more data comes in, the predicted data becomes closer to the reported data.
data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Excess-De…
#excessdeath #NoVaccinePassportsAnywhere #Connecticut #Vermont #NYC #NewJersey #COVID19 Image
While total excess deaths (including COVID) are comparable between last winter and this winter. It is clear that something else is driving excess death this year among these states. Image
The data shown in the table is from November 2020 to February 6, 2021 (last winter) and November 2021 to February 6, 2022 (this winter). It was mistakenly written in the column heading as Dec 6 which will be February 6.
Vaccination did not reduce COVID deaths in Colorado. Rather a lot of non-COVID excess deaths in 2021 June onward are predicted (actual number may go up as more data comes in) in 2021 (Nov- Feb 6, 2022). Image
This one is from Idaho. I am looking at those states which may have virus-fav weather for a longer time of the year. Image
This is from Washington. Image
This is from Oregon. Image
Washington, Oregon, and Idaho are neighboring states. I assume Idaho is drier than the other two states. With a relatively lower vax rate, perhaps Idaho excess death excluding COVID is relatively lower. Image
% shows one dose vaccination on Dec 1, 2021.

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More from @mahmudme01

May 31, 2022
Previously I showed that cases are growing faster in highly vaccinated (fully vaxd) counties in recent days. Here, you can see that correlation is very similar for booster dosed percentage. That means, counties with higher booster dose percentages have higher caseload.
This plot tells me that areas, where more people remained double dosed without boosters, are more likely to spread the virus.
so far positive correlation
-with fully vaxd %
-with booster dose %
-with fully vaxd without booster dose %
The population of booster dose percentage is relatively higher in California. Case and booster dose map match quite well!
Read 5 tweets
May 28, 2022
COVID trend in US Metro areas compared to COVID trend in New York and New Jersey metro areas. Each dot represents COVID cases in one week per 100K people. Image
COVID cases in North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, and Montana metro areas (counties) compared to US metro areas. Image
California Image
Read 5 tweets
Apr 29, 2022
I am thinking to quit covid tweet (or minimally active). We are in the phase that there are never ending arguments.

For example, vaccinated someone got COVID and subsequently got heart disease. Science folks will tell you that vaccine saved that person from death.
For example, highly vaccinated areas are getting COVID at a higher rate compared to unvaxd areas within a certain locality. Imagine 72 high level people got COVID from DC dinner (one single gathering). Is there any such incidence before vaccination?
But if you look at individual level, unvaxd COVID rate could be higher. Say (hypothetical example), 200 people attended that dinner while 15 were unvaxd. Perhaps, 12 unvaxd got COVID while rest are vaxd. If you divide each COVID # by population, you will see unvax rate is higher.
Read 11 tweets
Apr 20, 2022
Case surge is driven by vaccination. USA is currently experiencing a case surge almost in every state. Here, you can see last 7 days' cases are positively correlated with the vaccination rate. It is more obvious in Metro areas.
This is supported by Walgreen's positivity report by vaccination status. If you are vaccinated, you should be scared. If you are unvaccinated but live in highly vaccinated areas, you should be scared too.
You cannot expect this type of correlation when multivariable factors are in effect such as climate differences (one of the important variables). Despite those multivariable effects, the correlation tells something important.
Read 7 tweets
Apr 19, 2022
Some people think that the situation regarding vaccination has changed since Omicron. This is not true. It happened from the very beginning. Back then, it happened for partially vaxd and now people have taken many doses where so-called breakthrough cases are seen.
Another factor here. In earlier times there was much emphasis on vaccine effectiveness. Here, you can see from raw data that vaccine is clearly doing bad job after first dose, but VE shows quite a high number: 31.8%. It should be -ve. How it became +ve and a quite high number?
They did some adjustments (see AOR: Adjusted odd ratio). Only experts are eligible to do that! It's been more than 2 years now, still, I do not understand how this adjustment can be made unless you make up your own assumption. Perhaps they believe that vax people are risk group.
Read 8 tweets
Apr 13, 2022
Unfortunately, I am the only person who is talking about the virus favorable climate. It is the climate at which the virus replicates faster and can make people more sick. The weather has nothing to do with the virus, rather weather plays role in how virus invades the cells.
Once we would know how exactly weather plays role in cell membrane fusion process, we would know how vaccine effectiveness and vaccine side effects differ based on climate. We would know when & how mask works. We would know why lockdown is better sometimes while worse other times
I had good intentions to get answers to all those questions, to get a better understanding of the cell membrane fusion process from the evidence of liquid interface merging. But the door is closed for me because of the vaccine mandate.
Read 4 tweets

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