Note to @CNN friends: A major line of effort from Putin, incl in his declaration of war where he made special note that the ‘spoils of World War II’ still belong to him, is to split members states of NATO from each other. Differentiate new and old. This map helps with that. /1
Every NATO alley is equal in the alliance. There can be no differentiation in how we view them and prepare for their defense.
And a special note from me:
that it is some of our newer NATO allies who bring critical capabilities to the fight /2
In intelligence and cyber defense,
SOF capabilities and more, these states Putin wants cut off from the alliance being critical capabilities, show up when asked, invest in their national defense, and have the will and clarity we need.
They lead from the frontlines 🇪🇪 🇱🇻 🇱🇹 /3
Apologies for no-sleep typos and the nightmare that is apple autocorrect and hatred of the word allies *
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In Georgia today, there was a remarkable display support for Ukraine in the streets of Tbilisi.
Zelensky thanks them: “there are times when citizens are not the govt, but better than the govt.”
It’s important to understand what he means. Short thread /1
/1
Zelensky is fighting to keep Moscow from imposing another puppet leader in Kyiv.
Another leader like Yanukovych, who eroded the work of the Orange Revolution, moving 🇺🇦 by steps away from the westward integration the people wanted, eroding state institutions like the army /2
Yanu effectively left 🇺🇦 defenseless. Ukrainians took to the Maidan in 2013, over months of bravery chased Yanu from 🇺🇦 for betraying them, slaughtering some in their ranks.
When he fled, Russian forces were already in place to seize Crimea. /3
Fmr employee of engineer co that resealed Chornobyl twice tells me:
“If that reactor is reopened accidentally or intentionally, the consequences would be monumental for Europe. It is simply the most dangerous site in the world. I hope Russia doesn’t use this to blackmail NATO”/1
Chornobyl reactor 4 has been resealed twice since 1986. It needs to be constantly maintained. The most dangerous site in the world. And Russia decided to fight a war there — and seems to spread conspiracies that Ukrainian forces wanted to blow it up, so RU had to “seize” it /2
This is an incredibly dangerous situation and the Ukrainian govt’s request for a no-fly zone over Chornobyl is critical.
This is all further proof of why Ukraine needs an independent, responsible government. We cannot let this stay under opaque, careless Russian control. /3
Catch up on our convo on Putin’s war on Ukraine & the West — thanks @john_sipher for cohosting, @thomasboyden@selectedwisdom for your thoughts on what’s ahead in IO and cyber, and @herszenhorn for your reporting from Ukraine
Before Russia started hostilities against the Georgians in 2008, they evacuated 80%+ of the civilian population of Tskhinvali and claimed the Georgians were responsible for massive civilian casualties (all claims later proven false)
Re-reading parts of “A Little War That Shook the World” — about the Russia-Georgia war in 2008 — and slightly depressed by how very now this section sounds if you swap out Georgia for Ukraine /1
But the frequency with which we forget that the point of the post Cold War security order is “to protect small states from the predatory behavior of more powerful ones” — we could all do with a refresher on this point /2
Also this, especially the second paragraph. Ukraine is not a “proxy war” — but we are a party to the conflict because of Russian objectives, and stepping back and pretending it isn’t our fight doubly misses the point /3
What’s so remarkable is that in places like the US where dark money can legally pour into elections — this could describe almost every PAC that is well organized /2
Worthy emphasizing:
“The perpetrators of foreign interference carefully hide their true motivations. But that does not mean politicians are powerless to protect themselves.” /3