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Molly McKew Profile picture
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Feb 18 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Before Russia started hostilities against the Georgians in 2008, they evacuated 80%+ of the civilian population of Tskhinvali and claimed the Georgians were responsible for massive civilian casualties (all claims later proven false)
Worth noting: in Georgia, this was done COVERTLY, not overtly, and I wonder at the difference here, whether it is for projection of threat.

(In Georgia, they needed civilians out of way so they wouldn’t clog up Roki tunnel during fighting, very different operational purpose)
Those 2008 evacs were run by Russian forces directly.
In Ukraine in 2022, can’t help feel this is meant to contribute to perceptions of destabilization.
My Ukrainian sources say they see no signs that actual mass evacuations are being conducted. For now, it’s just part of the smoke and mirrors.
Interesting. Who’s directing the show?

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More from @MollyMcKew

Molly McKew Profile picture
Feb 14
Re-reading parts of “A Little War That Shook the World” — about the Russia-Georgia war in 2008 — and slightly depressed by how very now this section sounds if you swap out Georgia for Ukraine /1
But the frequency with which we forget that the point of the post Cold War security order is “to protect small states from the predatory behavior of more powerful ones” — we could all do with a refresher on this point /2
Also this, especially the second paragraph. Ukraine is not a “proxy war” — but we are a party to the conflict because of Russian objectives, and stepping back and pretending it isn’t our fight doubly misses the point /3
Read 4 tweets
Molly McKew Profile picture
Feb 11
Really interesting detail in the ASIO 🇦🇺 Annual Threat Assessment about a disrupted foreign interference plot targeting recent election

Lots of specific detail on how whole thing was structured to hide foreign origin and strings, keep targets ignorant /1

asio.gov.au/publications/s…
What’s so remarkable is that in places like the US where dark money can legally pour into elections — this could describe almost every PAC that is well organized /2
Worthy emphasizing:

“The perpetrators of foreign interference carefully hide their true motivations. But that does not mean politicians are powerless to protect themselves.” /3
Read 4 tweets
Molly McKew Profile picture
Feb 4
Let me say this a dozen different ways, I guess:

The century where everybody took turns negotiating away the futures of the people living between Russia and Germany/W Europe didn’t go so hot.

Don’t be one of the people trying to reboot it into “pragmatism” when it is monstrous.
If you argue for equal rights and freedoms and opportunities for every American, you should be able to support the same for other in other nations fighting for it.

Literally fighting for it — and to protect us and what we have, over here across this big safe ocean.
If you want to know why Ukraine has earned the right to seek to be in NATO and to have that door open when they come — study the Holodomor, when Stalin starved Ukraine as a tool of internal control, and millions died.
Read 8 tweets
Molly McKew Profile picture
Jan 28
Before Russia invaded Georgia, the Kremlin found a lot of ways to seed the narrative that the war was because Saakashvili was annoying & didn’t listen to the West.

The 2022 reboot is that the war is because Zelensky is annoying & doesn’t listen.

The war is because of Russia. /1
A lot of effort is being made to create division — or the perception of division that will become real division — between the Ukrainian leadership and the allies it needs now, especially in the White House. /2
I’m sure there’s lots to say about Zelensky’s ZFG style

But he has been clear about what Ukraine needs

None of this is about him

It is about what the Kremlin sees as an opportunity to get this White House to pressure Zelensky to make the concessions Russia needs in Ukraine /3
Read 6 tweets
Molly McKew Profile picture
Jan 26
Broad range of views on what could happen next with Russia & what the US must do represented in @POLITICOMag, including from Lilia Shevtsova, Fiona Hill, @EvelynNFarkas, @steven_pifer, and more. Some of my thoughts included in this mix: /1

politico.com/news/magazine/…
What will Putin do next? /2
What would surprise people about Putin? /3
Read 6 tweets
Molly McKew Profile picture
Jan 23
If you feel tempted to elevate disaster scenarios of “further invasion” of Ukraine — read this instead

“The Russians can get to Tallinn in two days... Maybe… They can get to Tallinn in two days. But they will die in Tallinn. And they know this.”

politico.com/magazine/story…
The reality facing the Estonians is the same one the Ukrainians have to face.

Don’t dismiss the reality facing Ukrainians. What they are prepared to do. What they have already had to do these past 8 years. And what they means about what comes next.
All we can really know: if Russia pushes the war outside its current boundaries to the scale their mobilization anticipates (maybe), a lot of people—soldier and civilian, Ukrainian and Russian—will die, and their destruction will bring catastrophic suffering.
Read 4 tweets

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