1) I NEVER go max size (1R risk) on a parabolic move (long or short) unless I get a blowoff or a pullback once Im in the money. In fact my buddy & I were on Voxer yesterday BEGGING for a blowoff so we could add the remaining portions.
That's why a lot of times, when a move goes directly in my favor without a pullback or bounce, you see me tweet/complain "fuck, I was only on starter size" or "fuck, I didn't get to add the rest" etc. I ALWAYS break up my orders & drop Mjolnir only when EVERYTHING lines up
2) I never EVER sell naked. Im always doing spreads (or buying naked), this way my max loss is ALWAYS fixed. And if u know me then u know that the moment I take on a trade I already expect the trade to fail. in short, I mentally take the loss before it even happens
3)I never let a losing trade or day erase more than a week of gains. FUCK that. So I always size appropriately so that worst case scenario I give back a few days or prev wins. Lot of u fuckers oversize SO much that u become scared to pull the trigger or revenge trade after losses
anyway none of this is new so im probably boring the OG guys to death. Search my old threads. My rule of thumb is "if u cant call ur friends & laugh/crack jokes at a loss, u're trading WAY too big". Risk management is the cornerstone of everything I do.
Also fun fact, world news mean nothing. The market is manipulated by billionaire option sellers. They plan their moves (long or short) weeks in advance, then they just use whatever trending news to justify the move, hide their footprints, or trigger the final selling or squeeze.
why do you think bad news seems to ALWAYS happen when the market is already in a heavy downtrend? or why good news seems to always happen when stocks are already uptrending? when they're short MASSIVE positions, they need u fuckers to panic sell so they can cover.
when they're long MASSIVE positions, they need u fuckers to FOMO buy so they can take profits into ur buy orders (aka "sell the news"). And when u're a multibillionaire, who do u think u play golf with? joe smuck who works at target? or world politicians & owners of news outlets?
To be frank with u, I have no clue nor do I care. This is not the account to follow if u're looking for long term predictions or what might happen next month or next year etc. Anyone who tries to predict the market long term is either full of shit or full of vague BS statements
For every 1 "pReDiCtiOn" that comes true there is another 5 that failed. So we can sit here & talk advanced fundamentals and stats all day long, trust me, I can go full nerd mode when it comes to that, and i have spreadsheets GALORE. But NONE of that matters when u trade momentum
The ONLY thing I can "predict" with a high degree of accuracy is that dumb emotional money almost always loses in the end, and that smart money (the house) almost always wins in the end. So what do i do? I just bet against dumb money. Simple as that.
9 year old daughter came pretty close on her super bowl prediction. Final score 23-20 versus her 24-18 prediction. I might have her start doing my stock data analysis from now on 😂
The power of quality over quantity never fails to amaze me. As some of u kno, ive been working on a little experiment lately (less time in front of screens, more time with family/friends, working out, hobbies etc). I 100% believed that my profits decrease during this experiment
But i was willing to pay that small price in exchange for more "balance" & a break from the "if i dont work 12-15hrs a day staring at screens then im not productive" mindset". Contrary to my expectations (that i would make LESS money), the OPPOSITE actually happened.
I reduced my "trading time" to just 3 hrs a day max (2.5 hrs in the AM to open/manage swings, and just 30min in the afternoon for market review + tracking + charts etc), and I actually made MORE money in the last few months than I did when I was spending almost ALL day on the cpu
Saying that placing stop losses is pointless because there is a chance they might get ran is like saying wearing a condom with the college slut is pointless because there is a chance that it might pop anyway.
Until gonorrhea hits u with the "you gon learn today".
Also dont think "FiNe iLL jUst uSe a MeNtAl StoP tHeN".
Market makers are not dumb. they dont need to SEE ur stop to know it's there. Based on volume, order flow & stats they can estimate where most ppl's pain thresholds are. So NO ONE is safe from this, hard stop or mental stop
The point of that thread was not "dont use stops". it's "use stop hunting as an EDGE in ur own trading". If u cant beat em, join em. As far as ur own stops go, some day they'll hold, some day they'll get ran too. who tf cares? losses are part of the game. manage em, dont avoid em
One of the most common questions I get is "I feel like they're coming for my stops".
Sounds like a conspiracy theory, but fun fact, it's not.
The market is DESIGNED to stop people out. You will always struggle with entries, exits and risk management until u understand this.
That's why everything can look good in hindsight & on ur backtested charts, but when shit gets real & the cameras start rolling, it quickly becomes a different ball game. Just b/c it looks perfect on ur stats & saved charts, doesn't mean it will always be perfect in real time
U can think "ok, i've seen this happen over & over again. I practiced. I studied. I'm ready", then soon as u get on the field and put ur football 🏈helmet on, u realize the field just switched to a fucking skating rink. The market says " u're playing hockey now, motherf*cker"