Poetic climate action: today 1pm, activists disrupt airport operations in Berlin/Frankfurt/Munich with 99 red balloons. Russia's war already shakes up European security & UK airline operations—what's coming is far worse. Support @Jana_Mest@AufstandLastGenletztegeneration.de/blog/2022/02/f…
What's ahead? Not everyone will want to know, but reality-based analysis helps if we want to change reality.
1/n
2/ Thought experiment, case 1: stabilize at 500 ppm CO2. Very optimistic, but not completely impossible (IMHO).
3/ Case 2: don't stabilize. Go to 800 ppm CO2, and feedbacks will carry you further. Less optimistic. Vital to know IF that's where we're heading so far.
There's a world of difference, wide enough for billions of lives, between cases #1&2.
Peter Wadhams: "It may be too late to save the Arctic, but if it's too late to save the Arctic, it's too late to save anything. What the world needs now is engineers to do what is needed."
Funding needed now. Thread.
2/ We should be blunt because these questions decide our future. As Peter Wadhams says in his book and on @iconickevin's blog: we know that, institutionalized via the IPCC, it has become social convention to make certain indefensible assumptions in models. kevinhester.live/2017/11/10/ful…
3/ Hand waving online and asking scientists and analysts to take the time to read up on the relevant dynamics may help but won't address what is essentially a question of power and institutional architecture, so just to leave this here.
Good paper @peteirvine 2011. Only: what "other" schemes? All climate geoengineering is illusory (DAC, CCS, re/afforestation). They exist in models, but can't physically reach global scales, given real-world energy & material constraints. SAI is contested.
@nephologue's other counterintuitive finding: resilience (= the goal of MEER) increases global prosperity and CO2. Resilience prolongs the growth phase at the cost of delaying and deepening collapse.
We need to decide what we want - a question of ethics.
Why scientists disagree on physical reality: Some have uncritically taken up the political symbolism of "carbon budgets" for "1.5/2°C," a (1) message to mobilize people; and, confusingly, (2) governance metric to permit more(!) business-as-usual. In reality, budgets are negative.
@ScientistRebel1 is correct. Julia is co-author of IPCC AR6 WG1 (physical science basis), ch.3 (mitigation), inspiring scientist-activist. But we need to know that the IPCC has always been about geopolitics. Some history, please read all three (Agrawala):
@ScientistRebel1 The IPCC is a stunning, unprecedented effort by scientists. But like the AGGG, we now artificially extend overcome structures. Climate is too fast-moving for the current climate regime (IPCC, UNFCCC, etc.). Policy innovation, again, is needed. Political scientists, where are you?
While humanity may not survive a doubling of CO2, economists assume that unsurvivable futures can be treated as essentially trivial costs, barely worth talking about.
Policy over the past 30 years acted as if this weren't insane. Now, the window of action is essentially closed. What else is there to say?