6/ This merits deeper analysis and research. Until we all begin to address these questions in public, we won't get the funding, public awareness and support needed to work on these questions at meaningful scale.
We'd better start fast.
7/ Like Big Oil since the 1970s and the U.S. since the 1980s, Russia and China now are perfectly aware of what's happening. Diplomacy is a tool of climate statecraft, but so is war. It's time to get serious in climate policy analysis. DM open.
8/ @TOClimates (+ @greenprofgreen) are very on message: understanding the international is key in climate and environmental policy—fields that have been dominated by economist and natural scientists far too long—, while understanding climate is key in IR.
9/ We are starting to lose patience. I'm rather pleased that anonymous went from "Expect us" to "It's too late to expect us" on Putin. For strange reasons, scientists seem to think that simplistic BAU analysis can capture climate change dynamics. Sorry.
), have started to believe their own wishful thinking. Slick bullshit politics like "Build Back Better," "net zero" or "momentum" will do nothing against famine & mass death.
11/ In Berlin, @carla_hinrichs_@AufstandLastGen ask whether the media understand that we face drought, multi-breadbasket failures, and global migration already THIS DECADE (0:30). (They don't.) @MuellerTadzio worries we'll lose climate focus over Ukraine.
@carla_hinrichs_@AufstandLastGen@MuellerTadzio 12/ All of this is heart-breaking. Let me make a simple observation. Current protest forms may not build enough pressure to change climate policy. I expect sooner or later new actors will enter the game, and peaceful sabotage will escalate both cyber and critical infrastructures.
@carla_hinrichs_@AufstandLastGen@MuellerTadzio 13/ As @xr_cambridge hints, historical luck has it that at least in recent history, most people who care about intergenerational and climate justice have been kind progressives who tend to stick themselves to windows and bridges rather than blow them up.
14/ If we have now entered an age of climate wars, how much longer will this historical luck hold?
15/ Beyond rational analysis, we need arts and empathy to rethink what holds us together and to rebuild the legal, socioeconomic and biophysical foundations of our lives. Time to build systems that don't self-combust within decades.
16/ Climate and renewable energy pundits were quick to use Putin's war and Germany's embarrassing role (#NordStream2, #SWIFT) for shallow talking points that show no engagement with real-world events. Insist on deep analysis. By the way, 🤣👇
17/ These questions are not abstract. As @ProfSteveKeen says, capital without energy is a sculpture. Whether physical (in Ukraine/Russia) or online, disrupt logistics or blow up Russian fuel supplies. To save lives, tanks to sculptures. 🥳
18/ On strategy. Keen observers will have smiled, as I didn't even argue *that* Putin's war is climate-driven, aside a rhetorical question (#5). But I think it's too early to tell—also this is twitter shitposting, no report or op-ed. Why it matters though:
). But wherever on the spectrum decisionmakers are, this will be *upstream* of tactics & strategy, influencing how they interpret information.
20/ Why I share this with some urgency, even though these climate-security questions would deserve a team, years or real scholarship. We may face extreme risks in the coming weeks if Putin sees no way out, as @PaulArbair lays out in this meticulous thread.
@PaulArbair 21/ If the Russian government is privy to information on Arctic climate change that we are not, which drive their strategic objectives, or timeline, in ways we don't anticipate with the current Putin focus - we may be miscalculating.
22/ I will gladly eat my words when future historians figure out current perceptions were different. But public information known to anyone in the field paint a more urgent picture than I see reflected in most analysis. I wonder why. Hence, my 2 cents.
23/ Russian attack on RWD Radon near Kyiv: "Works & installations containing dangerous forces, namely dams, dykes & nuclear electrical generating stations, shall not be made the object of attack," —@ICRC IHL rule 42 @TRodenhaeuser
@ICRC@TRodenhaeuser 24/ As things escalate in space & cyberspace: I'm not sure what the status under ihl of hacktivists is. Non-military cyber combatants as unlawful combatants may be largely unprotected. @xxNB65 and #anonymous will know what risk to take; many others won't.
@ICRC@TRodenhaeuser@xxNB65 25/ Risk of 'wormhole escalation' (@rebeccahersman) between nuclear powers will increase as climate change enters calculations. This isn't Mr. Robot; hacktivists must act responsibly.
Hybrid immunity was invented in 2021 to sell the idea of SARS-CoV-2 infections as a good. There is no literature pre 2021. The idea to infect the global population with a SARS virus, including all 2 billion children aged 14 yo and younger, didn't exist. scholar.google.com/scholar?q=%22h…
You can repeat the same with "immune debt" or "immunity debt", the original flawed idea invented by French pediatrician Cohen in 2021, setting off the whole strain of argument. An incredibly effective PR campaign, less good science. scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&…
1. Europe imports all its bamboo. Plantations on fallow land are one good option to slow climate breakdown and create sustainable jobs. Bamboo is incredibly fast and, unlike timber, active management improves climate and ecological outcomes. Merits focus, baustoff-partner.de/d/moso-reiche-…
SARS-CoV-2 wasn't the last disruption to import based businesses. Our basic climate policy warning for seven years now. One of the reasons I'd encourage everyone to look into starting to grow Moso bamboo (phyllostachys edulis) or other suitable species in Southern Europe as well.
3. Terrestrial mammals and C4 grasses evolved and adapted below a threshold of 550 ppm. Earth will cross it within the lifetime of kids born today. - Bamboo is our most efficient C3 plant. Cenozoic CO2 proxy (CENCO2PIP) Consortium☝️ science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…
You need a scale for the collapse of 'doomsday' glacier Thwaites. Compare the past two years: iceberg B22a broke off the glacier in 2002 and gained legs in 2023, freeing Thwaites to flow into the sea over the coming years: here it is today—that's 3,000 km2 worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-2442135.48…
3600 square kilometers, for the mathematicians here
The real problem: you cannot analyze SARS-CoV-2 OR compare it to HIV-1 without accounting for reinfections, current policy worldwide because no one bothers to plan for stopping them, ie #ZeroCovid, just as we have #ZeroHIV policy. Absurd.
SARS-CoV should be compared to HIV. They are the two best researched viruses in history. "Compare and contrast X and Y" is about the most common essay question in middle school language classes worldwide; people who want to prevent this have ill (no dad joke intended) intentions.
As AJ says, different opinions are perfectly valid here as long as people read carefully. It will get very complex. This is why as political scientist, to me learning from the policy & social parallels to the HIV/AIDS pandemic is paramount. Compare away,
The pre-ART HIV era is before me, so I learn from books and experiences. The central lesson of #UUU (#UequalsU) is: Empower the public. Help them make informed decisions.
It REQUIRES clear language as we speak, and public debate.
Don’t use Covid/LC. The real term in the literature since 2003 has been SARS survivors. It’s a SARS virus, so this require no rocket scientist, a Google search suffices. Wild how you minimize your own condition out of ignorance, friends. Worst social movement strategy I’ve seen.
Why bad? If you define LongCovid narrowly as the most extreme forms of ME/CFS or whatever, you minimize the 200+ symptoms recognized by WHO, marginalize all the hundreds of millions living with chronic infection, and slow public recognition, R&D & prevention. All around failing.
Just attended a toddler's birthday party: EVERY family reports kids constantly sick this winter, some severe/hospitalized, plus parents out, some month-long Covid + X infections. - As expected. - None of them understand this virus, thanks to ☝️ failing Covid advocacy and policy.