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Paul Maidowski Profile picture
@_ppmv
Feb 26, 2022 • 25 tweets • 16 min read • Read on X
Ukraine may turn out to be the first climate-driven war in Europe. This IS climate statecraft. thread. 1/n
2/n The notion that it is only climate policy when 100+ nations sit in a circle and decide *by consensus* is profoundly strange. Always has been.

A serious failure of imagination in climate analysts and scientists.
3/ Rather, climate is at the heart of world affairs. Great thread on the climatization of security and the UNSC.
4/ @StefanAykut @LucileMaertens and many others have had a keen focus on these questions over the years. It's long been foreseeable and foreseen.
5/ How can a war for the breadbasket of Europe, which controls food security worldwide, not by climate driven? 🤷‍♂️
6/ This merits deeper analysis and research. Until we all begin to address these questions in public, we won't get the funding, public awareness and support needed to work on these questions at meaningful scale.

We'd better start fast.
7/ Like Big Oil since the 1970s and the U.S. since the 1980s, Russia and China now are perfectly aware of what's happening. Diplomacy is a tool of climate statecraft, but so is war. It's time to get serious in climate policy analysis. DM open.

good thread
8/ @TOClimates (+ @greenprofgreen) are very on message: understanding the international is key in climate and environmental policy—fields that have been dominated by economist and natural scientists far too long—, while understanding climate is key in IR.
9/ We are starting to lose patience. I'm rather pleased that anonymous went from "Expect us" to "It's too late to expect us" on Putin. For strange reasons, scientists seem to think that simplistic BAU analysis can capture climate change dynamics. Sorry.
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10/ It's been troubling me for years that many, in all three circles (@StefanAykut ), have started to believe their own wishful thinking. Slick bullshit politics like "Build Back Better," "net zero" or "momentum" will do nothing against famine & mass death.
11/ In Berlin, @carla_hinrichs_ @AufstandLastGen ask whether the media understand that we face drought, multi-breadbasket failures, and global migration already THIS DECADE (0:30). (They don't.) @MuellerTadzio worries we'll lose climate focus over Ukraine.
@carla_hinrichs_ @AufstandLastGen @MuellerTadzio 12/ All of this is heart-breaking. Let me make a simple observation. Current protest forms may not build enough pressure to change climate policy. I expect sooner or later new actors will enter the game, and peaceful sabotage will escalate both cyber and critical infrastructures.
@carla_hinrichs_ @AufstandLastGen @MuellerTadzio 13/ As @xr_cambridge hints, historical luck has it that at least in recent history, most people who care about intergenerational and climate justice have been kind progressives who tend to stick themselves to windows and bridges rather than blow them up. Image
14/ If we have now entered an age of climate wars, how much longer will this historical luck hold?
15/ Beyond rational analysis, we need arts and empathy to rethink what holds us together and to rebuild the legal, socioeconomic and biophysical foundations of our lives. Time to build systems that don't self-combust within decades.

#BelmarshTribunal
16/ Climate and renewable energy pundits were quick to use Putin's war and Germany's embarrassing role (#NordStream2, #SWIFT) for shallow talking points that show no engagement with real-world events. Insist on deep analysis. By the way, 🤣👇
17/ These questions are not abstract. As @ProfSteveKeen says, capital without energy is a sculpture. Whether physical (in Ukraine/Russia) or online, disrupt logistics or blow up Russian fuel supplies. To save lives, tanks to sculptures. 🥳 Image
18/ On strategy. Keen observers will have smiled, as I didn't even argue *that* Putin's war is climate-driven, aside a rhetorical question (#5). But I think it's too early to tell—also this is twitter shitposting, no report or op-ed. Why it matters though:
19/ There is a spectrum of views on climate risk in national security. I'm leaning more to one side (dense thread: ). But wherever on the spectrum decisionmakers are, this will be *upstream* of tactics & strategy, influencing how they interpret information.
20/ Why I share this with some urgency, even though these climate-security questions would deserve a team, years or real scholarship. We may face extreme risks in the coming weeks if Putin sees no way out, as @PaulArbair lays out in this meticulous thread.
@PaulArbair 21/ If the Russian government is privy to information on Arctic climate change that we are not, which drive their strategic objectives, or timeline, in ways we don't anticipate with the current Putin focus - we may be miscalculating.
22/ I will gladly eat my words when future historians figure out current perceptions were different. But public information known to anyone in the field paint a more urgent picture than I see reflected in most analysis. I wonder why. Hence, my 2 cents.
23/ Russian attack on RWD Radon near Kyiv: "Works & installations containing dangerous forces, namely dams, dykes & nuclear electrical generating stations, shall not be made the object of attack," —@ICRC IHL rule 42 @TRodenhaeuser

ihl-databases.icrc.org/customary-ihl/…

ImageImage
@ICRC @TRodenhaeuser 24/ As things escalate in space & cyberspace: I'm not sure what the status under ihl of hacktivists is. Non-military cyber combatants as unlawful combatants may be largely unprotected. @xxNB65 and #anonymous will know what risk to take; many others won't.
@ICRC @TRodenhaeuser @xxNB65 25/ Risk of 'wormhole escalation' (@rebeccahersman) between nuclear powers will increase as climate change enters calculations. This isn't Mr. Robot; hacktivists must act responsibly.

See this issue of IRRC.
international-review.icrc.org/articles/twent…
blogs.icrc.org/law-and-policy…
tnsr.org/2020/07/wormho… Image

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More from @_ppmv

Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Nov 19
1. May do SARS-CoV-2 science threads when I find time. "While association between ABO blood group and infection is well known for many years, lower susceptibility of O blood group to coronaviruses had already been reported nearly 20 years ago for SARS-CoV" degruyter.com/document/doi/1…
2. Transplacental SARS-CoV-2 protein Orf8 binds to complement C1q to trigger fetal inflammation - Yes, as we've been saying for years. Orf8 makes SARS (CoV-1/-2) unique among coronaviruses. Let's infect all the kids so we are really, really sure that's bad embopress.org/doi/full/10.10…Image
3. SARS-CoV-2 can trigger a devastating, destructive placental pathology causing placental dysfunction and fetal hypoxia, yet stillbirth is rare. The fetal hypoxia is acute/subacute, apparent as reduced fetal movements. 20% of participants in this study(!) sciencedirect.com/science/articl…Image
Read 8 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Sep 20
1. The structural parallels of SARS-CoV-2 and HIV-1 were known already 20 years ago, from SARS-CoV-1. Yet COVID-19 policy and even most scientists ignore these parallels, failing to learn key lessons. Fundamentally, genetic recombination drives both pandemics—two typical articles

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2. Don't worry about the specific article—there are hundreds more, and more relevant ones. The lesson here is we face syndemics, overlapping epidemics that cluster with inequity, not just distinct pandemics. All reinforce each other
link.springer.com/article/10.118…
frontiersin.org/journals/micro…
3. Background. There are literally thousands such articles; no one integrates them. That's why as political scientist, for years already, I've been arguing that only institutionalization can help with such complexity. We need a @UNAIDS for SARS-CoV, sorry
Read 29 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Aug 30
1. Growing bamboo is our best chance to avert climate breakdown: the plants build soil, help biodiversity, avoid GHG emissions, provide food & construction material, sequester carbon 30 times (!) faster than mixed temperate forest. Yet stunningly, no one coordinates this work yet 40 year old moso bamboo in southwestern France grown from seed. Photo Lihua Jiang, www.yunnan-bamboo.com
2. After 40 years of climate science - first AGGG, now IPCC -, everyone feels they know climate. Yet experts only really know their own field. Generalists and practitioners can implement solutions but need experts to develop them. Bamboo as climate solution is entirely unexplored
Two bamboo stands in Zhongshan Expo Park, Taipei
Bamboo species in Tapei botanical garden
3. Last time atmospheric carbon content was as high as today, 16 million years ago, Earth was >3°C warmer than today, the Arctic was ice free, and Iceland had a subtropical climate. People think they know what climate change means, but most really don't. mdpi.com/2673-4834/5/2/…
Read 47 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Aug 21
We’ve shared this for years, it was known or suspected even before the pandemic from SARS-CoV-1. Friends of we’re going to learn at this rate, ignoring prepandemic science, populations worldwide will get into serious trouble
Background. Thanks for outstanding science communications @vipintukur
I'd like to delete my account, but then a sizable fraction of the early Covid twitter scicomm documentation - to show what was known when - would be gone. As far as I know, no one else with even a moderately sized account (>10k followers) shares the same readily available science
Read 5 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Jun 13
“Bamboo is our best chance to slow climate breakdown. It can replace drivers of GHG emissions and biodiversity loss (food, construction, concrete, plastic), build soil & allow regrowing rainforest." - Let's test it. Grow bamboo as blueprint for a future ecological civilization 🧵
Moso bamboo (phyllostachys edulis) seedling grown from seed with tap root
Moso bamboo forest in China, stock photo
2. Giant bamboo dwarfs trees. As grass, it grows 30 times (!) faster and can be harvested every year. Timber takes decades; too slow. Stunningly, no one in the west described the unique climate mitigation potential of bamboo yet. - Note the rhizome system:

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3. Climate relevant will be the use in millions of ha of plantations, just like other economically important crops. After two months on this, some significant progress: air pot kindly donated 1 m of their professional U system, so I can test it for bamboo.
Image
Read 39 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Jun 4
SARS-CoV-2 reminder: The more immune compromised the population, the less symptoms, the ‘milder’ it appears, the more severe it really is (=Long Covid, long term damage). That’s what even most scientists seem not to get
Thanks for vivid discussion everyone. It really is a fundamentally important point. Since I deleted most references for lack of structure (and frankly, just being fed up repeating the same points for 3 to 4 years), I'll look for new references that must have been published by now
Background
Read 8 tweets

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