After roughly 30 hrs of fighting in Ukraine Russia still lacks control over any major towns or oblast centers in the areas that were under initial assault. Here is the latest from local sources on most contested towns. THREAD
SOUTH: 1. Henichesk, town of 20K on Azov sea, earlier reported captured, but UA govt and other services operating as of this morning; 2. Melitopol, town of 100K on route to Zaporizzhia, shelled overnight,reported RU vehicles passing through, but UA municipal govt in place.
3. Odesa - no reports of shelling or fighting outside the city; UA govt in full control; stores function normally, but major industries/port suspended operation;
NORTH: 1. Sumy, oblast center of 250K, earlier reported captured, but UA city gov operational; 2. Hlukhiv, town of 32K, earlier reported captured, but UA gov in control. 3. Chernihiv, oblast center of 285K, fighting on the outskirts, RU mil columns moving around the city to Kyiv.
Konotop, town of 85K in Sumy oblast, heavily shelled overnight, civilian casualties reported, local resistance groups organized, communal services and industries still operate; city mayor joined self-defense and called on others to follow; transferred exec powers to his deputy.
EAST: Kharkiv, oblast center of 1.4 mln, under curfew, shelled overnight;fighting reported on the outskirts; Chuhuiv, town of 30K, earlier reported captured, internal resistance groups formed; city mayor announced joining self-defense group, exec power transferred to the deputy.
DONBAS: RU tanks reported 15 km from Mariupol, but city under UA control. Oblast centers, Kramatrosk and Severodonetsk, under UA municipal govt; no new towns ceded to RU.
The thrust of todays RU assault directed at Kyiv. This indicates RU plans to capture capital city and central govt sites first; expects other towns in the East/South to surrender though domino effect once Kyiv falls. END
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Latest from the UA cities under RU assault based on local sources. THREAD
NORTH: SUMY, 260K oblast center: reports of street clashes between local defense units and RU troops; UA destroy RU gas trucks moving through; RU troops take over local hospital, bring wounded RU soldiers. CHERNIHIV, 280K oblast center: no RU troops reported, defense mobilization
SOUTH: KHERSON, 289K oblast center, patrolled by UA defense units; city council states town operates as normal. MYKOLAIV, oblast center: shelled overnight, public transportation used only for mil purposes, no reports of fighting in the city.
Putin announced abstract objectives in his declaration of war, but his exact tactical and strategic goals remain unclear. I see at least five possibilities. THREAD
1. Capture additional territories in the South/East/North, but refrain from taking oblast capital cities. Then use them to bargain for a new settlement with the West resulting in federalism, neutrality clauses for Ukraine and recognition of Crimea/Donbas loss.
2. Capture major cities, like Kharkiv, Kherson, Odessa, and seek to form new administrative units out of them and govern them on permanent basis as quasi-Russian territories. This would mean Ukraine’s permanent partition along Dnieper river.