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Serhiy Kudelia Profile picture
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Feb 26 • 8 tweets • 1 min read
Latest from the UA cities under RU assault based on local sources. THREAD
NORTH: SUMY, 260K oblast center: reports of street clashes between local defense units and RU troops; UA destroy RU gas trucks moving through; RU troops take over local hospital, bring wounded RU soldiers. CHERNIHIV, 280K oblast center: no RU troops reported, defense mobilization
SOUTH: KHERSON, 289K oblast center, patrolled by UA defense units; city council states town operates as normal. MYKOLAIV, oblast center: shelled overnight, public transportation used only for mil purposes, no reports of fighting in the city.
ODESA: no RU troops reported, repeated air raid sirens in the morning, city govt in place. MELITOPOL: captured by RU troops, RU mil vehicles stationed in the city; RU mil column reportedly moving to PRIMORSK, a town of 10K on the road to MARIUPOL.
EAST: KHARKIV: clashes on the outskirts and repeated shelling of the city; metro used by civilians as shelter; no reported presence of RU troops. Quiet in DNIPRO, ZAPORIZHZHIA.
DONBAS: Under shelling Volnovakha, Mariupol, Avdiivka, Toretsk. No towns captured by RU troops, risk of MARIUPOL encirclement.
KYIV: air raid warning announced at 11:22AM local time, multiple missile attacks reported on residential buildings.
AS OF NOON UA time on Feb. 27 only one town - MELITOPOL - under full RU control.

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More from @skudelia

Serhiy Kudelia Profile picture
Feb 27
Confirmed takeover of two Ukrainian towns today - Kupiansk, 20K, Kharkiv oblast in NE and Berdiansk, 100K, Zaporizka oblast in the South. Both cases suggest that Russians plan to rely on collaboration of local officials for governance. There needs to be counter strategy. THREAD
1. Based on local reports RU troops entered the two towns without any major resistance. 2. In both towns they approached local mayors with offers of collaboration. 3. In both cases local officials indicated interest in running the towns in the interest of local residents. Image
This collaborative logic is similar to 2014 when local officials in Donbas often remained in their positions while separatists exercised coercive control over towns. However, 2022 is clear case of foreign occupation. And such collaboration of officials is treason.
Read 5 tweets
Serhiy Kudelia Profile picture
Feb 25
After roughly 30 hrs of fighting in Ukraine Russia still lacks control over any major towns or oblast centers in the areas that were under initial assault. Here is the latest from local sources on most contested towns. THREAD
SOUTH: 1. Henichesk, town of 20K on Azov sea, earlier reported captured, but UA govt and other services operating as of this morning; 2. Melitopol, town of 100K on route to Zaporizzhia, shelled overnight,reported RU vehicles passing through, but UA municipal govt in place.
3. Odesa - no reports of shelling or fighting outside the city; UA govt in full control; stores function normally, but major industries/port suspended operation;
Read 8 tweets
Serhiy Kudelia Profile picture
Feb 24
Putin announced abstract objectives in his declaration of war, but his exact tactical and strategic goals remain unclear. I see at least five possibilities. THREAD
1. Capture additional territories in the South/East/North, but refrain from taking oblast capital cities. Then use them to bargain for a new settlement with the West resulting in federalism, neutrality clauses for Ukraine and recognition of Crimea/Donbas loss.
2. Capture major cities, like Kharkiv, Kherson, Odessa, and seek to form new administrative units out of them and govern them on permanent basis as quasi-Russian territories. This would mean Ukraine’s permanent partition along Dnieper river.
Read 7 tweets

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