Thread by @JackNiewold

I haven't attempted to call the bottom of the pullback until now, but I'm a buyer here.

Why?

Shots fired have historically signaled a market bottom.

A 🧵 on my mid-term macro thesis 👇:

Firstly, it's important to recognize how correlated BTC and the NASDAQ have been over the last few months, although BTC is much more volatile.

To illustrate this correlation, here's a 3x NASDAQ Index fund against BTC since Nov 20.

Pretty striking.

So if the NASDAQ and BTC are correlated, perhaps we can use historical stock market data to understand the where markets are headed.

I'm not a macro guy but it doesn't take a genius to interpret some of the data available.

Here's a chart floating around that I've found fascinating.

It shows that market bottoms have coincided with war.

Extrapolating from this data assumes that Ukraine will be the only country invaded, I guess, but buying the invasion seems to be a strong investment strategy

I think there's also an argument to be made that war could be good for crypto prices:

• Leads to $$$ printing/currency debasement
• Sanctions lead to nation-state crypto adoption
• Displaced people use crypto as SoV and financial rails when banking infra is unreliable

On top of that I think there's interesting geopolitical game theory around crypto adoption:

If Russia begins to adopt $BTC to get around sanctions, then I see other big nation states having to adopt as well.

One domino falls, so do the others.

I'm bullish DeFi as well: if American hegemony is in question, international equities are uncertain, precious metals continue stagnating, what do you invest in?

Not $SPY. Decentralized, non-nation-affiliated protocols that can fulfill financial services regardless of nationality

And yeah, WW3 is a possibility that doesn't look good for financial markets. But are you really worried about your net worth in a nuclear winter?

Perhaps things like BTC and ETH are good hedges against domestic equities and indexes. There's definitely a case for SoV cryptos.

One striking difference I see this cycle is that no one is really permanently leaving crypto, we're just kind of waiting for some type of confirmation/certainty to get back in.

But man, my gut says that this whole situation will lead to more adoption in crypto.

I don't want to be trite in wartime: this is a situation that concerns me deeply, and I wish it wasn't happening.

But it's okay to speculate around these events and consider how they affect financial markets.

Sorry if you follow me for protocol-level FA, but macro takes precedence with regards to price action in times like these.

These are just my personal thoughts--if you find them interesting, great, but I'm an expert by no means.

So, yeah, I'm buying here.