Thread by @sfrantzman

What I don't understand about this war is that reading all the accounts of Russia trying to grab airfields, did they think they will just fly in all the forces deep inside Ukraine? Like they thought this is the invasion of Crete style?

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1497430637166407686

From what I can tell, and I don't know really, there is no traditional frontline. There is fighting in different towns, there are armored columns that have tried to push through (like in Market Garden)...and there are a lot of attempts to grab airfields (many unsuccessful)

Everything seems fluid, moving quickly. Not a traditional war. What does this tell us? Lack of information, lack of major defensive planning by Ukraine, and Russia's assumption for a quick war, not a slugfest.

I've heard a lot of commentary about how amazing Ukraine's resistance is, but it's only Day 3...I mean it's hard to say. I've seen Ukraine's leader praised for remaining in Kyiv, but in many wars of the past the leaders stayed. It's just Afghanistan as a bad example.

When we compare Ukraine holding out; Yugoslavia held out against NATO for weeks in 1999, right? Iraq also did in 1991 and 2003? I'm not saying Ukraine is Iraq or Serbia, but in general countries can hold out for weeks or months against superior firepower.

Poland and France held out for weeks against the German onslaught in 1939 and 1940. And in 1941 the Germans moved slower into the Soviet Union than the Russians moved on D+1 and D+2. So I think we need some perspective here.

The fact is that the Russians shouldn't have been able to get to Kyiv in two days. It was 150km. And there were only a few roads to go down and a river dividing the roads. Given months of western intel on this and warnings I think that's a fair analysis.

Whether the Russians made some mistakes assuming they could displace the Ukraine government in 48 hours...and are now seeing stiffening resistance, I don't know. Maybe they miscalculated. But still, planning for a rapid 48 hour war...that's war taken to a whole new level.

Even 'fast' wars like the US against Iraq...take weeks or months. Maybe there are exceptions, like the "six day war"...but generally there are not.

And I write this as someone who was in Ukraine, with the Ukrainian army covering the Donbas war. So it's not just speculation. That was in 2017 and the army was supposed to be increasingly modernized.