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Peter Ungphakorn Profile picture
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Feb 26 • 12 tweets • 6 min read
My simplistic tweet from late last night needs elaborating. “Right” is a bit strong

It was a response to news that some US politicians want to act against 🇷🇺 by withdrawing WTO rights and even expelling it over the invasion of 🇺🇦



For example …

🧵1/13
For example this ⬇️

Permanent normal trading relations (PNTR) is the US’s (more accurate) term for “most-favoured-nation” (MFN) treatment—non-discrimination between trading partners. The most important principle in WTO rules.

2/13
And for example this ⬇️

There are two main points.

1. DENY RUSSIA PREVIOUSLY-GRANTED WTO TERMS

2. EXPEL RUSSIA FROM THE WTO

What do WTO rules say?

Remember, I’m not a lawyer, and this is a crude attempt, so lawyers look away now …

3/13
1. DENY RUSSIA PREVIOUSLY-GRANTED WTO TERMS?

As @julianku says, this would be “illegal”. The US could cite WTO national security clauses—I’ll leave the lawyers to discuss how valid that might be.

Without citing national security, what would happen?

4/13
Russia could use the WTO’s system for settling legal disputes. But

● The system isn’t working properly. The US could kick the case into the long grass

● Dispute settlement can’t enforce anything anyway. The most Russia could do? Retaliate

5/13
There are some rules for members to withdraw WTO terms from each other in goods & services (WTO Agreement, Art13), but they wouldn’t apply—not even Par3, since the objection wasn’t raised when Russia joined in 2012.

Would the US care anyway?

7/13 wto.org/english/docs_e…
2. EXPEL RUSSIA FROM THE WTO?

Believe it or not, while there are rules for countries to join the WTO (WTO Agreement Art12), there are no rules for expelling members directly.

The simplest option might be to ostracise Russia within the WTO

9/13 wto.org/english/docs_e…
Beyond that, any attempt to expel Russia would need a convoluted mixture of WTO rules and politics. Eg:

● A proposal to the General Council/Ministerial Conference to expel Russia.

Decisions are by consensus so Russia and allies could block.

10/13 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2021/05/19/vot…
Would members force a vote for the first time ever in the WTO, against their reluctance to do so? Would the US?

The attempt would probably be messy, eg, Russia & co blocking the vote by refusing to accept the meeting’s agenda

11/13 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2021/05/19/vot…
Eg:

● There is one instance in the WTO Agreement where a member could find itself expelled. It comes under Article 10.

Deliberately taking this route is not a serious option

Take a deep breath.

12/13 wto.org/english/docs_e…
The route:

Amendment proposed—>blocked—>vote forced (see 11/13)—>passed—>67% of members ratify—>Not Russia—>Ministerial Conference: Russia is “free to withdraw”—>Russia wants to stay—>Ministerial Conference: no consent

We can forget expulsion

13/13 wto.org/english/docs_e…
More details and analysis from @snlester here

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More from @CoppetainPU

Peter Ungphakorn Profile picture
Feb 24
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was raised on Day 2 of the WTO General Council today

A number of countries prefaced their statements under various agenda items by expressing concern about violation of sovereignty, territoriality and the rule of law

1/4
WTO spokesman Keith Rockwell said they included Australia, Canada, Colombia, EU, Georgia, Japan, Rep. Korea, Mexico, Norway, New Zealand, UK, US

Russia said the WTO was not the place to discuss this

2/4 docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…
On the deadlocked #TRIPSWaiver⬇️, more countries expressed concern about the attempt to break the deadlock among 4 key players: India, EU, SAfrica and US—mainly a complaint that they were not being informed about what was happening in the small group.

3/4
Read 4 tweets
Peter Ungphakorn Profile picture
Feb 22
A formal meeting of the WTO intellectual property (TRIPS) council this afternoon heard reports from an attempt by four members (EU, India, SAfrica, US) to break the deadlock over waiving the obligation to protect some intellectual property for COVID-19 (the #TRIPSwaiver)

1/10
WTO deputy head @_AnabelG who is coordinating (with DG @NOIweala) with the group of 4 said the talks have been difficult but she hoped a compromise could be possible.

One approach explored is to separate vaccines from diagnostics and therapeutics. (Why? Explained in 9/10)

2/10
The EU—said it was looking for a bridge between waiver-advocates and its own position to make flexibilities in WTO rules as easy to use.

The US—repeated its broad support for the waiver (but so far with no specifics), and that it is working with members to find a solution

3/10
Read 10 tweets
Peter Ungphakorn Profile picture
Feb 22
Proposed rescheduled in-person WTO Ministerial Conference—June 2–4 or week of June 13, Geneva.

General Council chair Dacio Castillo the earliest feasible dates taking account of availability of Swiss security and other facilities.

1/6 wto.org/english/thewto…
Based on what he heard informally today, Castillo will consult members and report to the formal General Council tomorrow & Thursday.

Most delegations preferred the week of Jun 13, some preferred Jun 2–4, but most said they were flexible, according to a Geneva trade official

2/6
The new dates are possible because Switzerland eased most of its COVID-19 restrictions on Feb 17. The Swiss ambassador told the meeting that most restrictions on entry would be lifted. Any remaining curbs will be waived for the Ministerial Conference.

3/6 swissinfo.ch/eng/covid-19_c…
Read 7 tweets
Peter Ungphakorn Profile picture
Feb 14
Very niche🧵

Who invented the 4 modes of services supply?

I took a deep dive into historical Uruguay Round negotiating documents following contributions from @ScheeleJonathan @AmyPorges @henrysgao @RMelendezOrtiz

Short answer: it was an evolution, crystallised by the EU

1/14
The four modes of services supply are:

1 cross border supply
2 consumption abroad
3 foreign commercial presence
4 movement or presence of natural persons

Within the 1986–94 Uruguay Round negotiations, this evolved from Feb 1987 to Oct 1989

2/14 wto.org/english/tratop… Image
Feb 23–25, 1987 meetings

The earliest reference to this idea is in summary note MTN.GNS/7
docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…

This has (1) cross-border supply, (2) (partial) presence of natural persons, (3) commercial presence.

Not consumption abroad

3/14 Image
Read 17 tweets
Peter Ungphakorn Profile picture
Feb 10
This is an interesting WTO staff working paper by Ting-Wei (Alex) Chiang and Xiaoping Wu of the Intellectual Property Division

It's complicated, but that's the nature of #COVID19 vaccines and vaccine patents

Direct link to the paper: wto.org/english/res_e/…

Some takeaways

1/6
The paper looks at the different types of vaccine technology and their "patent families" (patent applications for the same or similar technical content), evolution, distribution of inventions and patents globally, types of companies involved, and more

2/6 wto.org/english/res_e/…
• Vaccine types vary in the number of patent families involved. Viral vector (AstraZeneca etc) and mRNA (Pfizer, Moderna, etc) have more

• Private firms dominate, SMEs contributing most, public labs do basic science research

• Earlier years count

3/6 wto.org/english/res_e/…
Read 6 tweets
Peter Ungphakorn Profile picture
Feb 3
The 🇪🇺 Commission says this is the first Sri Lankan 🇱🇰 geographical indication to be registered in the EU.

For those of us with long memories, it's more than that.

Back in 2005-2006 Sri Lanka complained its exports to the EU were blocked.

Details: spsims.wto.org/en/SpecificTra…

1/3
Sri Lanka raised this in the WTO committee on food safety and animal/plant health (SPS) in 2005–2006.

🇱🇰 complained that EU rules on sulphur dioxide were inconsistent ⬇️, preventing imports of its cinnamon.

The EU and @FAOWHOCodex were sympathetic.

2/3 wto.org/english/news_e… Image
By late 2006, the issue was resolved.

15 years later Sri Lanka has a protected geographical indication for its cinnamon in the EU

WTO processes may be slow, but sometimes they produce results.

3/3 wto.org/english/news_e… Image
Read 4 tweets

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