Thread by @SethAbramson

The Trump-Putin axis launched—at the latest—in July 2015, when Trump assured Putin, speaking to a Russian spy on camera, that he didn’t care what Putin did in Ukraine and wouldn’t punish him for it, may cause WW3. Think of all the intersections between the men the GOP lied about.

Trump was in secret business negotiations with the Kremlin throughout his 2016 presidential campaign, even as Kremlin agents were writing his foreign policy—literally. Once he became POTUS he began working to aid Putin in bringing Ukraine to its knees financially and politically.

Trump selected as his campaign manager a man he *knew* had been on the Kremlin payroll for years and was paid *millions* annually. When Manafort came to him and said he'd work for "free", Trump knew exactly what was going on—he was getting a chance to get a Trump Tower in Moscow.

Putin never invaded Ukraine while Trump was president *because he didn't have to*—Trump was actively aiding the Kremlin in ensuring Ukraine would remain a Kremlin vassal state *without* the need for military force. Putin and Trump were waging a war against Ukraine by other means.

Once Russian cyberwar against the U.S. failed to secure for Trump a second term in 2020—unlike Putin's big success in aiding Trump in 2016—Putin no longer had a U.S. ally in taking down Ukrainian democracy from the inside. So he invaded Ukraine with two potential futures in mind:

1) If Trump runs and is elected in 2024—which would probably, for a third time, be a bid that came with Russian aid—Putin knows Trump would push to end any sanctions on Russia for what it did in 2022.

2) If Biden remains POTUS, Putin feels he has nothing to lose by invading now.

The reason a recently released poll shows 62% of Americans saying that Putin wouldn't have invaded Ukraine if Trump were still president is because that is likely *true*—but *not* for the reason whatever percentage of the 62% (i.e., most of it) is made up of Trumpists *thinks*.

The history of Trump's political career shows he was at war with Ukraine—not a military war, but a political, rhetorical, financial, diplomatic and policy one—from the very beginning. The reasons are complicated and several, e.g. Trump's business failures in Ukraine in the 2000s.

But Trump also knew that the *number one* way to please Putin—which is what Trump-the-candidate and Trump-the-businessman wanted more than anything else (as Putin could help him the most in both venues)—was to be an enemy of Ukraine.

Which Trump was, to Putin's evident delight.

So Putin didn't *need* to invade Ukraine when arguably the second-most powerful man in the world after him—Trump (who allowed Putin to assume the number-one position)—was willing to *repeatedly* withhold aid from Ukraine, prop up Kremlin agents there, and do even worse than that.

Putin thought he'd have Trump for 8 years—enough to steal Crimea and have Trump ensure there'd be no punishment; steal the Donbas and have Trump again ensure no punishment; and undermine Ukrainian democracy such that Manafort's pro-Kremlin party could retake Ukraine's government.

But the *cost* of the Trump-Putin axis was going to be incalculable: the disintegration of NATO; Ukraine again becoming a Kremlin vassal state; untold enrichment (via corruption in Ukraine) of a Kremlin apparatus determined to wage neverending cyberwar on America; and much worse.

So understand that Trump and MAGA's vocal support for Putin has an ugly history—*and* an ugly future.

The Trumpists want Putin to—for a *third time*—try to ensure a Trump presidency, and they don't care if NATO falls or hundreds of thousands die in Ukraine to get this to happen.

PS/ None of this is my opinion. All of it is the product of research—and 12,000 publicly released major-media citations—relating to my three national bestsellers on Trump and Russia. Everything you see in this thread happened and is confirmed. None of it is theory or speculation.

PS2/ So when far-right voters ask, "What does what's happening in Ukraine have to do with the US?", my response is, "Well, I know what it has to do with *you*—because *you* voted for a man whose foreign policy was written by Kremlin agents, and *that* set these events in motion."

PS3/ If you want much, much, much more info on all of this, here is a thread filled with FREE content regarding all of it.

https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1497691010062819329