Thread by @BretDevereaux

Twitter! Remember, for all those watching Ukraine, that the fog of war here is thick and the war in Ukraine is only in its early phases. Both triumphalism and despair are premature.

Also remember both Ukraine and Russia are going to be doing information ops here. 1/20

Both amplifying true information and also untrue information for the morale and public opinion effects. That's part of war: you trumpet your successes (or even make a few up) because you need to maintain morale.

Be wary of 'feel good' stories. 2/20

Twitter in some ways reminds me of Thucydides' description of armies on the shore at the naval battle in the Harbor of Syracuse (Thuc. 7.71), "Meanwhile, the 2 armies on the shore, while victory hung in the balance, were a prey to the most agonizing&conflicting emotions..." 3/20

..."some saw friends victorious and took courage...while others who had their eyes turned upon those who were losing, wailed and cried aloud, and, although spectators, were more overcome than the actual combatants." 4/20

That doesn't mean we can't know *anything* though. I think its fairly clear that things have not gone as the Russians might wish. The international response is almost certainly stronger and more united than planned. 5/20

Ukrainian resistance is also stronger and much stouter than expected. Russian hopes to avoid a prolonged and bloody slogging match must at this point be dashed; I suspect the early bold airborne operations speak to those expectations and their failure. 6/20

No doubt Ukrainian figures for kills on aircraft and armored vehicles are inflated, but the number is also clearly not zero. Again, I have to imagine that losses are higher than anticipated; Russia's ability to absorb heavy losses in men/materiel in the long term is limited. 7/20

Today's Russia is not the USSR of 1941; it does not have endless manpower or bottomless supplies of tanks - every weapon system lost is an expensive asset that Putin will struggle to replace, esp. given the impact of sanctions. Lives, ofc, irreplaceable. 8/20

All that said, it is also premature to say Ukraine is 'winning.' Russian forces are still taking ground. Ukraine is big, but not infinitely so; its resources too are limited. Russia's forces are not anywhere near fully committed. 9/20

Ukraine's continued ability to contest the sky is a major success, but also unlikely to continue forever - Russia is probably going to establish air superiority eventually given their vast advantage in systems, the question is when and to what degree. 10/20

Russian advances in the south strike me as especially worrying, threatening to cut off Ukrainian forces in the East (but of course I lack the full picture here). Encirclement and sieges in Kyiv, Sumy and Kharkiv, et al. seem almost inevitable at this point. 11/20

And while Russia has been sloppy in these opening phases, war is a bloody but powerful teacher. Expect Russian performance to improve (but also Ukrainian resistance to potentially harden as more weapons arrive and their own volunteers learn the same way). 12/20

On the balance, while Ukraine has shocked the world with the strength of their resolve, the balance of advantages still favor Russia by a significant margin. Dreams of sudden deliverance by mutiny or coup in Russia are almost certainly smoke and pipe-dreams. 13/20

Ukraine's defenders have to play for time and wear down Russian resolve because they cannot win decisively in the field - 'protracted' war which could last years if the issue goes to sieges and insurgency. Each day they survive is a victory. 14/20

That kind of war will churn up the country and hurt many, many people. And beyond that, there will doubtless be defeats as well.

Avoid sudden shifts of passion - focus on what you can do. 15/20

So what can you do?

First, contact your representatives - communicate your desire to support Ukraine. Tell them - and show them - that you care about this, that this issue is important to you, that they should send weapons, impose sanctions and rally other countries. 16/20

Politicians are especially always scared that sanctions might cause political blowback if they hurt the economy at home. You can help put their fears to rest; give them your courage to hit hard with economic sanctions that weaken Putin's ability to wage war. 17/20

You can also donate directly to the Ukrainian defense effort, via the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (ukraine.ua/news/support-t…) or ArmySoS (armysos.com.ua/en/) an organization that directly supports Ukraine defense action. 18/20

Finally, this war is also going to make many people refugees and impose terrible costs on Ukraine. If you are queasy about funding the fighting, organizations like Razom for Ukraine (razomforukraine.org) provide medical supplies and other aid for Ukrainians. 19/20

The solution to despair is to focus on what you can do, and there is a lot that regular people in other countries can do.

We can send more than 'vibes' and 'hopes' - it is the least we can do to support the Ukrainian men and women risking all for their country.

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