Thread by @AndrewPRLevi

What Putin Wants

“Diplomacy” is a board game, based on a map of pre-WW1 Europe, & a set of rules which would delight Machiavelli - or Bismarck.

It helps us see what Putin wants.

It should really be called “War”, because that’s ultimately how you win the game.

A 🧵/1.

All the talking, dealing & betraying is purely directed at invasion & occupation of territory, to the greater glory of the victorious World - or at least European - King.

In real life it would mean immense riches &, fundamentally, survival. /2.

You can’t stay put & be satisfied with what you’ve got. Because you’ll likely be eliminated. There are no cooperative, peaceful, enduring alliances you can rely on.

That’s Putin’s approach. Domestically. Geopolitically.

Diametrically opposed to those he faces to the west. /3.

What I’ve marked on the board is (approximately) what Putin already has.

Going right to left, that’s up to the first red line (plus the massive extent of Russia to the east).

And it shows what he wants.

That’s the hatched area, up to the second red line. /4.

He won’t stop until he gets it. Or is stopped.

He might want a bit more (Greece, Albania, Austria …) but not less.

So it’s essentially the maximum extent of the territories of the Russian Empire+USSR+Warsaw Pact/ “Iron Curtain” countries. /5.

What might have seemed fantastical to many a week ago, & still probably seems hard to absorb today, is now emerging for all as reality.

None of the “deals” you might have heard being proposed will work. /6.

In fact, they’re essentially versions of what we’ve been doing for over 20 years.

They can buy some time.

Perhaps.

You could argue they did up to now. /7.

But that was in the context of much greater weakness on Putin’s part. And we’ve gifted him the opportunity to become far stronger.

His “conventional” forces (& economy) are still far too weak to achieve his full objectives.

Which is why he’s resorting to nuclear terrorism. /8.

With his nuclear forces - like the USA & to a lesser extent France & UK (although they’re pretty much US offshoots) - he has the power to annihilate whole countries, or the world, in a few minutes. /9.

Of course, it’s massively important (to put it mildly) that we avoid nuclear war.

But it’s now obvious to anyone who doubted it before that Putin will threaten nuclear war whenever he thinks it useful, in pursuit of his perverted requirements. /10.

Giving him what he wants because he’s threatened nuclear war will lead to an escalating danger of nuclear war, as he calibrates his response to repeated capitulation on his progress west. /11.

That leaves us with the crisis President Biden - the Europeans can’t achieve anything on their own - faces today. /12.

How to face down a nuclear terrorist in charge of thousands of warheads, large armed forces & huge territory, without precipitating nuclear war & without feeding an escalating threat of nuclear terrorism & associated escalating probability of nuclear war. /13.

From the same source. Or potentially others, emboldened by US/ Alliance failure to deal with this one.

That is, obviously, fantastically difficult.

But it’s the job. /14.

Of course, the US could decide to do a “1945” & concede all of central & eastern Europe to the USSR/ Greater Putania.

It might work. For the US.(I’m v doubtful, but I see the logic).

Let’s not imagine for a second this is about “Ukraine” only.

Look at the board. /15. End

P.S. It really isn’t about NATO. Or Ukraine’s mystical part in Russian history👇

https://twitter.com/andrewprlevi/status/1497006632269750280

P.P.S. In case you’re wondering, the Soviet imagery in tweet 8 is deliberate …