In the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008 there was great shock among Euro-Atlantic governments.
Our senior officials analysed how we’d been blindsided & what to do next.
Some of that was leaked.
What follows wasn’t.
Today, it’s a punch to the gut.
A 🧵/1.
Our senior officials analysed how we’d been blindsided & what to do next.
Some of that was leaked.
What follows wasn’t.
Today, it’s a punch to the gut.
A 🧵/1.
Thinking of it now, after Putin’s horrendous performance on Monday, I feel only dismay.
The strategic assessment - in paraphrase- was as follows.
“The policy that emerges is not far short of a return to containment. /2.
The strategic assessment - in paraphrase- was as follows.
“The policy that emerges is not far short of a return to containment. /2.
“The hope we had in the early years of Putin that we could forge a real partnership is now definitely over. /3.
“The main difference between containment in George Kennan’s sense & the current version is that dealing with Russia is no longer the central, existential issue for the US & Europe. /4.
“So we will never get the mobilisation of resources or the unity of purpose behind a single Russia policy in the way containment focussed transatlantic policies on the Soviet Union. /5.
“It is the nature of Western countries’ relations with Russia, & responses to Russian assertiveness, that we couldn’t mobilise a full containment policy even if we wanted to. /6.
“It will be crucial to supplement diplomatic efforts with direct, internationally coordinated action against certain activities & vested interests of the leadership elite”. /7.
There’s a circularity in being at the top of the Euro-Atlantic hierarchy yet declaring the inability of your countries to implement the policy you consider necessary & for which you’re responsible.
Policy did, in fact, significantly improve for some time, to be fair. /8.
Policy did, in fact, significantly improve for some time, to be fair. /8.
But naivety, power lust & venality of often inexperienced, sometimes well-meaning, sometimes corrupt, politicians on the make, too often intervened in the following years.
And here we are in February 2022. /9.
And here we are in February 2022. /9.
We’ve never come close to implementing the necessary containment policy. We now must.
It may be too late.
We’ve never come close sufficiently to hitting the leadership elite. We now must.
It may be too late.
But “may be” is no longer tolerable. /10.
It may be too late.
We’ve never come close sufficiently to hitting the leadership elite. We now must.
It may be too late.
But “may be” is no longer tolerable. /10.
All that - & quite possibly much more, & much more potentially terrifying - is essential.
Or we surrender to a brutality few countries in Europe have experienced, in over 30 years for some, over 70 for many others.
It’s time. /11. End
Or we surrender to a brutality few countries in Europe have experienced, in over 30 years for some, over 70 for many others.
It’s time. /11. End
Recommended reading from @edwardlucas 👇
https://twitter.com/edwardlucas/status/1495826326594412552
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