1/ Why is Putin rattling the Last Saber and putting Russian nuclear forces on alert?
First, it's because he is losing. He's losing in Ukraine. He's losing as the world unifies against him. He's losing in the mysterious noumenon the Russian political power. He's losing money.
2/ Putin is in the mouth now of the crocodile, if I may slightly modernize Victor Rezun's formulation of how Soviet-era power worked.
He has to win and keep winning to survive.
3/ The Russian nuclear capacity is real-ish (control for Russian systems being, well, Russian), and could make millions of Americans or so have a really bad day requiring the proverbial SPF 25 million sunscreen.
But the klept has been dreading this moment.
4/ The old man who was so strong for so long and who kept them in line with the terror of his willingness to kill or imprison anyone has now threatened to end the world they prefer to Russia.
Slowly, inexorably, they're feeling one another out.
5/ "This is going badly." "It's too much." "My daughter is in New York." "My lyubovnitsa is in Miami." "My money is in London."
"Someone has to do something."
Now, without going too far down the Russian nuke conmmand and control rabbit hole...
6/ ...this is a head fake. A bluff. A shit-test for America and an attempt to terrorize Berlin specifically.
Don't fall for it. Don't let him ratchet you into a panic. Some of you -- many of you -- didn't grow up with the existential threat of nuclear war.
7/ So this presents a new fear, a unique panic where you start to google the systems, effects, and results. He wants you right there. Because nuclear weapons are bad juju.
What Putin has set in motion with the invasion of Ukraine broadly and this threat specifically is his end.
8/ He was winning the game when he used the first-world capacity of the Russian state -- intelligence, propaganda, financial subversion, political manipulation (eg US 2016 and Brexit, to name just two) -- because Russia is the top of those games.
The rest? Nah.
9/ The old spy misread the world. He misread the passion for democracy and liberty. He wanted to roll the clock back to Soviet-era power and instead has unleashed a wave of resistance.
The clock is running now for Putin's death, imprisonment, or exile. He will fall.
10/ The next few weeks will be lit.
End.
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1/ I have a modest proposal in which the US and allies (or hell, some smart private company) at low cost and risk.
Identify Russian armor and aircraft positions in real-time (or near real time) and pipe the information to Telegram, Twitter, and other platforms.
2/ Several benefits: first, it will give UA defense forces better awareness than the Russians have of their own positions.
Second, it will give civilian defenders both warning and targeting.
Third, it's a record for the war crimes tribunals later.
3/ It will also get out to the Russian forces that those UA fuckers with Javelins and TOWs and Stingers know where they are, when they're coming and will whack them.
Objections will come from State (you're escalating) and IC (our secret sauce is too secret).
1/ Putin's show today -- all the dog and pony, dog-whistle, golden-oldies from K-Tel's Greatest Hits of the Soviet Era -- is an invitation to the West to stand up, take action, and crush his global klept in a sweeping asymmetric tide of lawfare and financial actions.
2/ Putin and his cronies care about hard power and hard cash. Chaos and division here at home (looking at the vast right-wing media apparatus) are Putin strengths.
The same instinct that led the Russian klept to move their assets overseas...
3/ …to nations with the rule of law, economic stability, and better schools, shopping, restaurants, housing, and quality of life is also a massive strategic weakness for Putin now.
1/ We launched a new ad campaign this week that means a lot as Russia provokes a needless war and challenges the Ukraine, NATO, and the international order.
1/ I took a light weekend on the social media front, but let me say a few words about Newt's not-so-subtle threats this weekend.
He's right.
He's just saying the quiet part out loud.
2/ We've been warning you all along that this election isn't about BBB or prescription drugs or guns or climate or anything else in the policy domain.
It's about the emergent authoritarian state shambling its way toward the end of small-d democratic politics.
3/ Speaker Jordan (and no, Kevin, he didn't take your deal and he is going to shank you) and the MAGAe will comprise a clear majority of the GOP caucus in 2022 and they are Trump's political vergeltungswaffe.
They don't care about policy. They care about power.
1/ A year ago this morning the plan was in place. The conspiracy was in action. The players knew their lines and marks.
They had worked for weeks to contrive a ludicrous legal argument based on specious reasoning to retain Trump's hold on office.
2/ It ran deep, far across the entire right-wing ecosystem. Near the center was a putrid slurry of Trump, his crime family, his goon squad sycophants, cosplay lawyers, leathery degenerate Roger Stone...
3/ ...pernicious little ratfuckers like Ali Alexander, conspiracy loons like Alex Jones, and of course the throbbing, cancerous gristle of Steve Bannon.
1/ The head of the detail stared across the Governor's desk, his face a stone mask. Knowing the volcanic temper of the man who led his state, he knew he must choose his next words carefully.
"Sir, I understand the need for personal time. I understand the need for family time."
2/ "The responsibilities of your office are overwhelming. Everyone knows how hard you work."
He took a beat, waiting for even a flicker of reaction. Seeing none, he pressed on.
"With the legislative session coming, I wonder though if this is the best time..."
3/ "And naturally, the concerns we have for your security during your...breaks...remain paramount. I must insist your security team accompany you on this...break."
The Governor finally showed a flicker of emotion. It crossed his face like a cloud covering the sun, then reset.