Dan Lamothe Profile picture
Feb 27 11 tweets 2 min read
Sunday background briefing with senior U.S. defense official winding down.

Up front, official acknowledges reports that Putin has put his nuclear forces on alert and said that it is “not only an unnecessary step for him to take, but an escalatory one.”
Senior U.S. defense official says that Russia continues to face stiff resistance on its advances. Also says Russia is struggling with fuel and logistical issues. Still no indications that Russia has taken control of any major cities, U.S. official says.
Significant: Russia has now adopted siege tactics on the Ukrainian city of Chernihiv, senior U.S. defense official says. That significantly elevates the likelihood of civilian casualties there.
As noted yesterday, Russian reconnaissance elements have been spotted in Kyiv. Senior U.S. defense official goes farther today and says some have been discovered in Ukrainian military uniforms, either by local people or Ukrainian forces.
Russia is about 30 kilometers from Kyiv’s city center and about 50 kilometers from Mariupol city center, U.S. defense official says. Belief is that the forces west of Mariupol include both ground forces coming from Crimea and naval forces who made an amphibious landing.
Pentagon assesses that airspace over Ukraine remains contested. Ukrainian aircraft and air defense systems still up, though degraded, senior U.S. defense official says.
Russia now has about two-thirds of its combat power initially arrayed at the Ukrainian border in the fight, senior U.S. defense official says. That’s up from about 50 percent in Saturday’s assessment.
Russia has now launched 320 missiles at Ukraine, up from 250 in Saturday assessment from the Pentagon. There have been indications that some launches have “experienced failures.”
Senior U.S. defense official says there are no indications of blockages of arms flowing to Ukrainians from the west. Official says he doesn’t want to go farther to make sure the arms get into the right hands.
Senior U.S. defense official warns that we are still in Day 4 of an operation with no end in sight. Hard to predict how it will go, given the bloody, unpredictable nature of ground combat.

“Everybody needs to look at this with a sense of humility here," official says.
Senior U.S. defense official: "We are in Day 4. The Russians will learn and will adapt and will try to overcome these challenges. I think we need to be pragmatic about that."

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More from @DanLamothe

Mar 1
At the Pentagon, a Tuesday morning background briefing about the war in Ukraine with a senior U.S. defense official has concluded. Important updates:
The 40 mile-long column of Russian tanks and combat vehicles that has been spotted in satellite imagery has “stalled” north of Kyiv, the senior U.S. defense official said. Several possible reasons for it, and it could be more than one of them.
There are indications that Russian forces are "regrouping" after their haphazard operation so far hasn't yielded the results they expected. They continue to deal with fuel shortages, and the senior U.S. defense official said food shortages have come up, too.
Read 12 tweets
Feb 28
Monday morning Pentagon background briefing on the war in Ukraine now concluded. Some noteworthy details on what is Day 5 since Russia's invasion to follow:
On Sunday, a senior U.S. defense official said that Russia appeared to adapting siege tactics on the northern city of Chernihiv. Today that official adds it appears similar tactics are in use in the northeastern city of Kharkiv, something that matches visuals widely available.
The senior U.S. official also says it appear that Russian forces are attempting to encircle Kyiv, raising concerns siege tactics could be used there, too.
Read 14 tweets
Feb 26
A Saturday morning background briefing with a senior U.S. defense official about the war in Ukraine just concluded.

First takeaway: Russian reconnaissance troops are now in and near Kyiv, the capital, even as main Russian advanced is about 30 kilometers north, official said.
The official declined to say whether these forces are Spetsnaz. By virtue of their role, they'd attempt to prep the battlefield for further advancement.

That said: Stiff resistance remains. Russian forces are “increasingly frustrated” by their lack of momentum, official says.
Airspace over Ukraine remains contested, U.S. official says, in contradiction to expectations before the invasion that Russia would quickly seize control of the skies.

Ukrainian jets and air-defense systems are active and continue to “engage and deny," U.S. official says.
Read 12 tweets
Feb 25
Out of a background briefing this morning with a senior U.S. defense official. Notable updates about the war in Ukraine:
A couple things going on here. First, Russia is getting more resistance that it expected, senior defense official says. He cites resistance around Kyiv in particular.
Russia also has not established air superiority over Ukraine, as U.S. officials had predicted was likely before this invasion began. Instead, the air space is contested, with some Ukrainian air defenses (surface-to-air missiles) still available and Ukrainian jets flying sorties.
Read 8 tweets
Feb 24
Just back from background briefing with a senior U.S. defense official. Important details that the Pentagon is seeing about the assault on Ukraine:
More than 100 missiles launched at Ukrainian targets last night. They came from Belarus, Russia and the sea. Airports and other military targets were the primary emphasis last night. But it appears Russia is moving to take control of Kyiv and other cities next, official says.
"We would describe what you are seeing as an initial phase" of a "large-scale invasion," senior U.S. defense official says. Cautions that the U.S. will not have perfect visibility of what is happening. No U.S. aircraft overhead.
Read 13 tweets
Feb 21
In statement @PressSec says, "We have anticipated a move like this from Russia and are ready to respond immediately."
"President Biden will soon issue an Executive Order that will prohibit new investment, trade, and financing by U.S. persons to, from, or in the so-called DNR and LNR regions of Ukraine."
"This E.O. will also provide authority to impose sanctions on any person determined to operate in those areas of Ukraine. The Departments of State and Treasury will have additional details shortly."
Read 6 tweets

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