Dan Lamothe Profile picture
Feb 28 14 tweets 2 min read
Monday morning Pentagon background briefing on the war in Ukraine now concluded. Some noteworthy details on what is Day 5 since Russia's invasion to follow:
On Sunday, a senior U.S. defense official said that Russia appeared to adapting siege tactics on the northern city of Chernihiv. Today that official adds it appears similar tactics are in use in the northeastern city of Kharkiv, something that matches visuals widely available.
The senior U.S. official also says it appear that Russian forces are attempting to encircle Kyiv, raising concerns siege tactics could be used there, too.
Russia has continued a slow advance on Kyiv while taking losses in combat with the Ukrainians, the senior U.S. defense official said. On Sunday, Russia's main advance was about 30 kilometers from Kyiv city center. On Monday, it appears to be 25 kilometers away, official says.
The senior defense official said there are signs that the Russians have introduced the Wagner Group, a private Russian paramilitary organization that has appeared in Syria and Africa, to the war.
The senior U.S. defense official did not specify how they know that, or what role Wagner might have. The official acknowledged reports that Russians are hunting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, but said the Defense Department does not have details.
"Reconnaissance units" are still in Kyiv and other parts of Ukraine, the senior U.S. official says. He did not identify them more specifically, but they are widely believed to include Spetznaz, Russian special operations forces. Ground fighting in Kyiv involves these units.
As of Monday morning in Washington, Russia has committed just under 75 percent of the combat power it staged at the Ukranian border before invading, up from about two-thirds on Sunday, the senior U.S. defense official said.
Russia has launched 380 missiles at Ukraine since the invasion began, up from 320 on Sunday and 250 on Saturday, senior U.S. official says.
Airspace over at least parts of Ukraine continue to be contested, the U.S. official said, in contradiction to U.S. assessments before the war that the Russians would dominate the skies within a day or two. Russia continues to target Ukrainian air defenses, U.S. official adds.
I asked if cluster munitions or multiple rocket launch systems are being used in Kharkiv. Senior U.S. defense official said he could not confirm. From reports on the ground, that appears to be the case.
If Russia can seize Kharkiv and Mariupol, “that would allow them to section off the eastern part of Ukraine and fix whatever Ukrainian armed forces are in the east and keep them there,” far from the capital city of Kyiv, the senior U.S. defense official said.
Finally, the United States has not seen "any specific muscle movements" so far from Russia's nuclear forces following Putin's order Sunday to raise their alert level.

Appears U.S. continues to take that scenario seriously, while also seeing it as a messaging tool for Putin.

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More from @DanLamothe

Mar 1
At the Pentagon, a Tuesday morning background briefing about the war in Ukraine with a senior U.S. defense official has concluded. Important updates:
The 40 mile-long column of Russian tanks and combat vehicles that has been spotted in satellite imagery has “stalled” north of Kyiv, the senior U.S. defense official said. Several possible reasons for it, and it could be more than one of them.
There are indications that Russian forces are "regrouping" after their haphazard operation so far hasn't yielded the results they expected. They continue to deal with fuel shortages, and the senior U.S. defense official said food shortages have come up, too.
Read 13 tweets
Feb 27
Sunday background briefing with senior U.S. defense official winding down.

Up front, official acknowledges reports that Putin has put his nuclear forces on alert and said that it is “not only an unnecessary step for him to take, but an escalatory one.”
Senior U.S. defense official says that Russia continues to face stiff resistance on its advances. Also says Russia is struggling with fuel and logistical issues. Still no indications that Russia has taken control of any major cities, U.S. official says.
Significant: Russia has now adopted siege tactics on the Ukrainian city of Chernihiv, senior U.S. defense official says. That significantly elevates the likelihood of civilian casualties there.
Read 11 tweets
Feb 26
A Saturday morning background briefing with a senior U.S. defense official about the war in Ukraine just concluded.

First takeaway: Russian reconnaissance troops are now in and near Kyiv, the capital, even as main Russian advanced is about 30 kilometers north, official said.
The official declined to say whether these forces are Spetsnaz. By virtue of their role, they'd attempt to prep the battlefield for further advancement.

That said: Stiff resistance remains. Russian forces are “increasingly frustrated” by their lack of momentum, official says.
Airspace over Ukraine remains contested, U.S. official says, in contradiction to expectations before the invasion that Russia would quickly seize control of the skies.

Ukrainian jets and air-defense systems are active and continue to “engage and deny," U.S. official says.
Read 12 tweets
Feb 25
Out of a background briefing this morning with a senior U.S. defense official. Notable updates about the war in Ukraine:
A couple things going on here. First, Russia is getting more resistance that it expected, senior defense official says. He cites resistance around Kyiv in particular.
Russia also has not established air superiority over Ukraine, as U.S. officials had predicted was likely before this invasion began. Instead, the air space is contested, with some Ukrainian air defenses (surface-to-air missiles) still available and Ukrainian jets flying sorties.
Read 8 tweets
Feb 24
Just back from background briefing with a senior U.S. defense official. Important details that the Pentagon is seeing about the assault on Ukraine:
More than 100 missiles launched at Ukrainian targets last night. They came from Belarus, Russia and the sea. Airports and other military targets were the primary emphasis last night. But it appears Russia is moving to take control of Kyiv and other cities next, official says.
"We would describe what you are seeing as an initial phase" of a "large-scale invasion," senior U.S. defense official says. Cautions that the U.S. will not have perfect visibility of what is happening. No U.S. aircraft overhead.
Read 13 tweets
Feb 21
In statement @PressSec says, "We have anticipated a move like this from Russia and are ready to respond immediately."
"President Biden will soon issue an Executive Order that will prohibit new investment, trade, and financing by U.S. persons to, from, or in the so-called DNR and LNR regions of Ukraine."
"This E.O. will also provide authority to impose sanctions on any person determined to operate in those areas of Ukraine. The Departments of State and Treasury will have additional details shortly."
Read 6 tweets

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