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Alexander S. Vindman Profile picture
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Feb 27 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
⚡️Russian Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, reportedly fired today. Gerasimov was very highly regarded, the most important military leader of the past generation, & the architect of today’s Russian Armed Forces. He’s served as the head of the military since 2012.
Gerasimov may end up being the fall guy for the catastrophic early failures of Russia’s Ukraine war, even though Putin would have designed and directed the conduct of the war. Potentially, he was fired to arrest the growing discontent of the military for this disaster campaign.
Either way, the situation seems to be unraveling, quickly. The next military leader will have even less cache to pushback on bad ideas. Putin seems a cornered animal, increasing desperate. It won’t end well for him. The question is at what cost with what collateral damage?
This is from my last meeting sitting opposite of Gerasimov, while he was meeting with the U.S. CJCS, in June 2018 in Helsinki.

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More from @AVindman

Alexander S. Vindman Profile picture
Feb 28
New sanctions & military aid are important, but what the West really needs is a re-imagined relationship with Ukraine. For decades, Western policy privileged Moscow over more willing partners in the region. To adequately support Ukraine, that must change.
washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/…
We can’t embrace defeatism or fatalism regarding the outcome of this war. It’s far from over, & Ukraine is fighting hard. They should not stand alone. I recommend a new Marshall Plan to rebuild Ukraine & an expanded NATO-Ukraine partnership to bolster security assistance to Ukr.
Aid packages in the low hundreds of millions are insufficient. Billions of dollars in security assistance & tens of billions of dollars in economic & reconstruction aid will be necessary to harden and rebuild Europe’s largest democracy, and integrate Ukraine with the EU.
Read 5 tweets
Alexander S. Vindman Profile picture
Feb 27
Thread. Info comes from a very senior former ministry of defense official.

Belarus will commit air and ground forces to Russia’s war on Ukraine, in the next 24 hours.

The most pressing threat is a large military column headed toward Kyiv from the Northwest.
The next biggest concern is the thrust from the south. The major port city of Odesa is attempting to repel amphibious assaults. Mariupol, on the of Azov, is being encircled.
Russian forces control the following cities and towns (these are smaller cities): Nova Kakhovka, Henichesk, Oleshki, Konotop, Berdyansk, Melitopol, Ivankiv, Borodyanka, Vasylivka, Orekhove, Pologi.
Read 4 tweets
Alexander S. Vindman Profile picture
Feb 24
So, just listened to #Tuckyorose @TuckerCarlson. I’ll explain it, since you have no clue. There are several reasons why the U.S. now faces the prospect of a major war in Europe, initiated by your idol, Putin.
For more than two decades Putin has been trending authoritarian. He destroyed Russia’s fledgling democracy and sown chaos in his neighborhood to reestablish Russian power. For Putin, this is a zero-sum game. Putin wins if his opponents loose. Russia views the U.S. an enemy.
His increasing belligerence & efforts to upend the international order—an order that enabled decades of US prosperity—have largely gone unchallenged. The West looked the other way on hopes of cooperation with Russia. That’s misplaced because our interests & values never aligned.
Read 8 tweets
Alexander S. Vindman Profile picture
Feb 22
Russia has invaded Ukraine. The U.S. must respond with significant sanctions to punish Putin’s aggression and deter further invasion. Failure to do so invites further aggression.

Decades of inaction resulted in ever increasing belligerence towards the West.
It’s nonsense to say, “well the Russians have been in L/DNR for 8 years, so nothing new, nothing has changed.” The status quo theory doesn’t hold up. Formerly, Russia waged a covert war. As of today, Russia’s involvement is overt, provocative, & probing for West vulnerabilities.
This open invasion demands a direct and forceful response commensurate with the serious violation of international law.
Read 4 tweets
Alexander S. Vindman Profile picture
Feb 21
Putin’s actions put the crisis past the point of a diplomatic resolution. Putin has eliminated the last realistic off-ramp for the crisis. He signed away the possibility of achieving his political aim, a veto over Ukraine’s geopolitical orientation, w/o a military offensive.
Only real bad diplomatic options remain. One of the major parties must now capitulate to avoid military hostilities.

The West would need to abstain from responding to todays major attack on the international system and conced to Russia a veto over European security…
Ukraine has no diplomatic path, with Russia, as the Minsk format is dead.

Russia would need to recognize Ukraine as a Sovereign state (Putin mocked the very idea) & return 190k troops to there bases, w/o achieving his main objectives, & while facing the risk of major sanctions.
Read 4 tweets
Alexander S. Vindman Profile picture
Feb 18
This is standard fare for Russian strategic signaling. It’s part & parcel of Reflexive Control doctrine. Planned set of inputs, nuclear exercises, alerts, civil defense drill to force U.S. leaders to primal decision-making… i.e. self-deterrence. Scary… it almost always works!
In this case, there is no runway for further self deterrence. The U.S. has already clearly expressed no appetite and zero willingness for risk for a bilateral confrontation with Russia and a readiness to defend NATO art. V.
That’s why @POTUS said both “no boots in Ukraine” and also positioned U.S. forces to secure NATO.
Read 4 tweets

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