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Bazaar of War Profile picture
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Feb 27 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Unfortunately, he's right: most military analysts ARE bewildered by this.

What's stranger is that they can't reconcile this with indubitable Russian success up to this point, or imagine how it might support Putin's political objectives.
The inability of experts on the Russian military to adapt what they know to what they're seeing has been stunning. In some cases it's textbook.
As has the lack of imagination in understanding the adaptation of doctrinal practice....
....to a situation where PR is extremely sensitive.

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More from @bazaarofwar

Bazaar of War Profile picture
Mar 1
Thread on reading a signal amidst the noise

Russia's apparently bizarre actions in Ukraine have confused many, especially their alleged failures of preparation. But these are surprising only in extent, not in type—they follow from two characteristics of the Russian army...
1. Top-down C2: subordinates are usually given—and expected to take—a lot less initiative than in NATO armies. This extends all the way down to junior officers and NCOs. In Afghanistan, the Mujahideen knew the best way to halt a Soviet attack was by killing the battalion CO.
A corollary to this:

2. Much more emphasis on the operational level, where Russian arms excel. WWII offensives were often shambolic and costly at the divisional level, but the combined effect was crushing. Image
Read 9 tweets
Bazaar of War Profile picture
Feb 28
This gets things wrong in the same way a lot of the military analysis does. Russia has sharply departed from usual practice—flooding the zone with obvious, heavy-handed propaganda.

If an actor completely diverges from standard form, the next question should be: "Why?"
It's the same as wondering why Russian BTGs have been so hesitant about using fires, when Russian doctrine is NOTORIOUSLY reliant on artillery.

It's just not good enough to say: "He thought this could be won quickly, now it's all going wrong."
There are overriding political considerations at play, he's clearly willing to sacrifice some advantages for them. While I think his specific war aims are still difficult to judge, THAT is what should drive analysis of both the campaign and the info war.
Read 4 tweets
Bazaar of War Profile picture
Feb 28
Excellent thread detailing the opposite interpretation of my own, from a true expert on the Russian military.

Points of agreement/divergence:
1. Tactical failures: Agree that Russian forces may be performing well short of expectations. This also has to be balanced against....
....operational objectives. A lot of his analysis hinges on the assumptions quoted below and in the tweet that follows it. On that, I strongly disagree.
2. This is the meat of where we differ. Yes, thunder runs are unworkable by themselves. And I agree that those early pushes may have been poorly-coordinated attempts at a coup de main. However, I also think...
Read 11 tweets
Bazaar of War Profile picture
Feb 28
This brings up an important point. Short answer: not necessarily.

Remember, doctrine is the body of practices that an army uses. So even though Russia is facing a very different situation from what its doctrine was designed for, it will still be based on that doctrine...
So even though Russia is not trying to break through a heavily-defended line stretching 100s of km (except perhaps in the Donbas), it's still approaching objectives in the operational and strategic depth similar to classic deep operations.
Other operational considerations are different though. BECAUSE it is not facing a WWI- or WWII-style German army (or a 1980s NATO one, for that matter), calculations for things like tempo, force protection, etc. are completely different.
Read 5 tweets
Bazaar of War Profile picture
Feb 28
Updated scaled side-by-side of the 4th day of Iraq & Ukraine (map by @miladvisor).

It was an interesting day, here's a thread with some observations. Image
@miladvisor First of all, in terms of progress the two are comparable. The Russians have been going over much more difficult terrain & crossed several rivers (the US did not yet have a foothold over the Euphrates), but they have suffered much higher casualties and equipment loss. Image
@miladvisor Operationally, there were two big developments today: the envelopment of Mariupol and the push south of some forces past Kharkov, threatening to encircle the Ukrainian army units. Militarily, both would be disastrous for Ukraine and give Putin a lot of political options.
Read 27 tweets
Bazaar of War Profile picture
Feb 26
I still don't think anyone appreciates the significance of Russian operations at Hostomel airport.

It's ~75 km from the river crossing at Chernobyl to the airport. Compare that to the doctrinal template of Soviet deep operations, which calls for airborne operations 80 km deep... ImageImage
One purpose of airborne troops in the operational depth is to exploit any fleeting opportunities. But the main reason is to disrupt the rear of forward echelons and render their position untenable.
The breakthrough around Chernobyl was crucial, the Russians' only available mobility corridor on the right bank of the Dnieper. The crossing at Chernobyl is one of the few through the Pripyat Marshes, an otherwise impassable obstacle. Image
Read 5 tweets

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